Villanova
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#28
Pace61.7#339
Improvement+1.0#89

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#3
First Shot+12.6#2
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#214
Layup/Dunks-3.2#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.6#1
Freethrows+1.6#80
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#54
First Shot+2.3#98
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#42
Layups/Dunks+1.4#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#205
Freethrows+1.9#83
Improvement+1.0#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.0% 1.9%
#1 Seed 17.3% 17.8% 7.6%
Top 2 Seed 33.9% 34.8% 15.4%
Top 4 Seed 61.4% 62.5% 39.7%
Top 6 Seed 78.4% 79.3% 59.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.1% 96.5% 88.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.8% 94.4% 84.3%
Average Seed 4.0 4.0 5.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.4% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.0% 94.7%
Conference Champion 51.6% 52.2% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 2.5%
First Round95.5% 95.9% 87.1%
Second Round79.4% 80.1% 64.8%
Sweet Sixteen51.0% 51.7% 36.1%
Elite Eight29.4% 30.0% 18.4%
Final Four15.6% 15.9% 8.4%
Championship Game8.1% 8.2% 4.6%
National Champion4.0% 4.1% 2.1%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 95.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 27 - 114 - 8
Quad 37 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 290   Mount St. Mary's W 91-51 99%     1 - 0 +29.8 +27.9 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2021 5   @ UCLA L 77-86 OT 36%     1 - 1 +11.7 +9.9 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2021 314   Howard W 100-81 99%     2 - 1 +7.5 +24.1 -15.7
  Nov 20, 2021 23   Tennessee W 71-53 62%     3 - 1 +31.7 +7.5 +24.7
  Nov 21, 2021 2   Purdue L 74-80 40%     3 - 2 +13.4 +19.3 -6.8
  Nov 28, 2021 234   @ La Salle W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 01, 2021 196   @ Penn W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 04, 2021 218   Saint Joseph's W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 07, 2021 78   Syracuse W 79-69 84%    
  Dec 12, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 17, 2021 87   @ Creighton W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 21, 2021 40   Xavier W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 29, 2021 151   Temple W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 01, 2022 27   @ Seton Hall W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 87   Creighton W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 100   @ DePaul W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 12, 2022 40   @ Xavier W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 16, 2022 104   Butler W 72-56 92%    
  Jan 19, 2022 69   Marquette W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 25, 2022 100   DePaul W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 29, 2022 62   St. John's W 82-70 87%    
  Feb 02, 2022 69   @ Marquette W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 13   Connecticut W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 08, 2022 62   @ St. John's W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 27   Seton Hall W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 15, 2022 55   @ Providence W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 139   Georgetown W 80-62 94%    
  Feb 22, 2022 13   @ Connecticut L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2022 55   Providence W 75-63 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 104   @ Butler W 69-59 80%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.1 10.0 12.8 12.1 7.0 2.5 51.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 7.3 5.3 2.1 0.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.7 4.0 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 3.7 5.5 8.6 11.8 14.1 15.5 15.0 12.4 7.0 2.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 100.0% 7.0    6.9 0.1
18-2 97.7% 12.1    11.3 0.9
17-3 85.6% 12.8    10.1 2.6 0.1
16-4 64.3% 10.0    6.5 3.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 36.3% 5.1    2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 13.9% 1.7    0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.6% 51.6 39.9 10.1 1.4 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 100.0% 65.5% 34.5% 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 7.0% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.4 4.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 12.4% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 1.7 6.0 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.0% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 2.4 3.3 5.0 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.5% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 3.2 1.2 3.4 5.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.1% 99.9% 33.6% 66.3% 4.4 0.2 0.9 3.0 3.9 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.8% 99.7% 25.2% 74.5% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 8.6% 98.1% 19.6% 78.5% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.7%
12-8 5.5% 92.9% 14.5% 78.4% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 91.6%
11-9 3.7% 79.3% 14.4% 64.9% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 75.8%
10-10 1.8% 56.7% 11.8% 44.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 51.0%
9-11 1.2% 23.3% 9.2% 14.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 15.6%
8-12 0.6% 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3%
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.1% 36.4% 59.7% 4.0 17.3 16.6 15.3 12.2 9.4 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.9 93.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9