St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#38
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#40
Pace63.3#318
Improvement-1.4#291

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#42
First Shot+6.2#28
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks+1.7#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#202
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement+0.3#137

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot+4.5#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#129
Layups/Dunks+4.8#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#301
Freethrows+2.5#48
Improvement-1.8#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 7.3% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 15.2% 15.3% 7.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.8% 63.2% 44.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.2% 47.6% 27.8%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 9.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.5% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.4% 98.1%
Conference Champion 43.5% 43.6% 37.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.4% 7.4% 6.1%
First Round59.2% 59.5% 42.0%
Second Round31.0% 31.3% 17.5%
Sweet Sixteen11.6% 11.7% 7.5%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.6% 1.4%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 0.9%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 26 - 38 - 5
Quad 38 - 316 - 7
Quad 48 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 293   Siena W 75-47 96%     1 - 0 +17.6 +6.5 +14.8
  Nov 14, 2021 260   Canisius W 69-60 95%     2 - 0 +0.6 -9.7 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2021 67   Boise St. W 67-61 63%     3 - 0 +13.3 +10.2 +3.9
  Nov 19, 2021 45   Clemson W 68-65 54%     4 - 0 +12.9 +10.0 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2021 69   Marquette W 70-54 64%     5 - 0 +23.2 -2.1 +24.5
  Nov 27, 2021 114   Northern Iowa L 80-90 83%     5 - 1 -9.4 +3.1 -12.1
  Dec 01, 2021 309   Coppin St. W 81-59 98%    
  Dec 04, 2021 71   Buffalo W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 08, 2021 302   Loyola Maryland W 76-54 98%    
  Dec 11, 2021 13   Connecticut L 66-70 35%    
  Dec 17, 2021 28   Virginia Tech L 64-66 42%    
  Dec 22, 2021 149   @ Northeastern W 65-59 73%    
  Dec 30, 2021 264   @ George Washington W 73-60 89%    
  Jan 02, 2022 120   @ Dayton W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 05, 2022 246   Fordham W 73-55 95%    
  Jan 08, 2022 60   Saint Louis W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 11, 2022 234   @ La Salle W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 14, 2022 79   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-57 74%    
  Jan 21, 2022 193   @ Duquesne W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 26, 2022 117   @ George Mason W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 218   Saint Joseph's W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 01, 2022 83   Davidson W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 04, 2022 76   @ Richmond W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 11, 2022 60   @ Saint Louis W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 16, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 193   Duquesne W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 22, 2022 72   Rhode Island W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 218   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-67 82%    
  Mar 01, 2022 79   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 61-60 54%    
  Mar 04, 2022 76   Richmond W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 7.2 12.7 12.3 6.9 2.1 43.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.7 7.5 3.2 0.5 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.0 5.2 1.4 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 5.3 7.9 12.2 15.4 16.2 16.0 12.7 6.9 2.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 6.9    6.7 0.2
16-2 96.5% 12.3    10.6 1.7 0.0
15-3 79.3% 12.7    8.0 4.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 44.7% 7.2    2.7 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.9% 2.1    0.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 30.3 10.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 100.0% 64.4% 35.6% 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.9% 99.0% 52.5% 46.5% 4.8 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
16-2 12.7% 95.7% 42.3% 53.4% 6.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.6 92.5%
15-3 16.0% 87.0% 37.9% 49.2% 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.5 1.7 0.4 2.1 79.2%
14-4 16.2% 73.6% 31.8% 41.8% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 4.3 61.3%
13-5 15.4% 54.6% 25.2% 29.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.2 1.6 0.1 7.0 39.2%
12-6 12.2% 39.1% 20.6% 18.5% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.1 7.4 23.3%
11-7 7.9% 22.7% 13.0% 9.8% 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 11.2%
10-8 5.3% 12.2% 7.3% 4.9% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.7 5.3%
9-9 2.7% 8.2% 7.1% 1.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 1.2%
8-10 1.6% 3.7% 3.1% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6%
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 62.8% 29.6% 33.2% 8.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 3.3 3.6 4.3 5.1 6.5 8.4 10.0 11.5 5.7 0.4 0.0 37.2 47.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.0 33.3 38.5 23.1 5.1