Providence
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#55
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#17
Pace65.8#267
Improvement-1.2#278

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#40
First Shot+3.9#67
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#82
Layup/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#228
Freethrows+4.7#4
Improvement+0.7#101

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#93
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#23
Layups/Dunks-0.9#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#275
Freethrows+2.7#37
Improvement-1.8#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.9% 6.6% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 11.7% 18.5% 7.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.4% 64.9% 43.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.5% 63.2% 41.3%
Average Seed 8.3 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 82.4% 91.3% 77.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 61.9% 49.2%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 3.9% 6.6%
First Four7.0% 7.2% 6.8%
First Round47.3% 60.8% 39.2%
Second Round22.2% 29.2% 17.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 9.4% 5.5%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.2% 1.9%
Final Four0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 49 - 12
Quad 35 - 114 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 222   Fairfield W 80-73 90%     1 - 0 +1.2 -1.6 +2.3
  Nov 11, 2021 311   Sacred Heart W 92-64 96%     2 - 0 +16.7 +12.9 +4.1
  Nov 15, 2021 31   @ Wisconsin W 63-58 26%     3 - 0 +20.2 +4.5 +16.1
  Nov 18, 2021 194   New Hampshire W 69-58 88%     4 - 0 +6.6 +10.3 -0.9
  Nov 22, 2021 42   Northwestern W 77-72 44%     5 - 0 +15.1 +13.8 +1.7
  Nov 23, 2021 39   Virginia L 40-58 41%     5 - 1 -7.3 -13.5 +1.6
  Nov 27, 2021 199   St. Peter's W 85-71 89%     6 - 1 +9.2 +20.8 -10.4
  Dec 01, 2021 17   Texas Tech L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 04, 2021 72   Rhode Island W 71-67 67%    
  Dec 07, 2021 107   Vermont W 69-62 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 348   Central Connecticut St. W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 13   @ Connecticut L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 22, 2021 139   Georgetown W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 29, 2021 27   Seton Hall L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 01, 2022 100   @ DePaul W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 04, 2022 69   @ Marquette L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 62   St. John's W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 11, 2022 87   @ Creighton L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 13   Connecticut L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 18, 2022 27   @ Seton Hall L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 23, 2022 104   Butler W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 40   @ Xavier L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 69   Marquette W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 62   @ St. John's L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 06, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 12, 2022 100   DePaul W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 15, 2022 8   Villanova L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 20, 2022 104   @ Butler W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 40   Xavier W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 87   Creighton W 73-68 69%    
  Mar 01, 2022 8   @ Villanova L 63-75 16%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.1 2.3 0.4 13.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.4 5.1 1.9 0.2 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.8 4.9 1.4 0.2 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 12.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.9 3.2 0.9 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 3.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.1 8.4 10.9 12.9 12.9 11.9 10.3 7.9 5.2 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 79.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.6% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 26.1% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1
14-6 7.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.0% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 5.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.2% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 7.9% 97.6% 6.6% 91.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 97.4%
12-8 10.3% 92.6% 5.5% 87.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.8 92.2%
11-9 11.9% 81.6% 4.9% 76.8% 9.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.5 1.7 0.3 2.2 80.7%
10-10 12.9% 64.2% 2.2% 62.0% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.6 63.4%
9-11 12.9% 30.6% 0.9% 29.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.9 30.0%
8-12 10.9% 9.1% 1.0% 8.1% 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 8.1%
7-13 8.4% 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3 1.2%
6-14 6.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.2%
5-15 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 51.4% 3.9% 47.6% 8.3 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.2 7.8 7.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.6 49.5%