Marquette
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#69
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#22
Pace79.4#19
Improvement+0.2#161

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#97
First Shot+2.1#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#118
Layup/Dunks-2.2#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#112
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement-0.1#195

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#65
First Shot+4.0#66
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks-1.7#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#100
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement+0.3#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 6.3% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 33.7% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.2% 31.7% 18.7%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 9.5
.500 or above 63.5% 64.4% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.3% 41.8% 30.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 9.1% 16.7%
First Four5.4% 5.4% 4.6%
First Round30.3% 30.9% 17.7%
Second Round13.7% 14.0% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.7% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 1.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 49 - 14
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 44 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 88-77 96%     1 - 0 -2.5 -4.8 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2021 194   New Hampshire W 75-70 86%     2 - 0 +0.6 -1.4 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2021 33   Illinois W 67-66 43%     3 - 0 +9.8 -7.9 +17.6
  Nov 18, 2021 74   Mississippi W 78-72 51%     4 - 0 +12.8 +12.5 +0.4
  Nov 19, 2021 46   West Virginia W 82-71 40%     5 - 0 +20.7 +13.0 +7.7
  Nov 21, 2021 38   St. Bonaventure L 54-70 36%     5 - 1 -5.2 -16.3 +11.9
  Nov 27, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 30, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 04, 2021 31   @ Wisconsin L 64-72 23%    
  Dec 08, 2021 101   @ Kansas St. L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 11, 2021 5   UCLA L 73-81 25%    
  Dec 18, 2021 40   @ Xavier L 71-77 28%    
  Dec 21, 2021 13   Connecticut L 73-78 32%    
  Dec 29, 2021 62   @ St. John's L 80-84 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 87   Creighton W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 04, 2022 55   Providence W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 07, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 11, 2022 100   DePaul W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 15, 2022 27   Seton Hall L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 19, 2022 8   @ Villanova L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 23, 2022 40   Xavier L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 27   @ Seton Hall L 70-79 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 55   @ Providence L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 8   Villanova L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2022 13   @ Connecticut L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 104   @ Butler L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 16, 2022 139   Georgetown W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 20, 2022 87   @ Creighton L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 104   Butler W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 02, 2022 100   @ DePaul L 78-79 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 62   St. John's W 83-81 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.4 1.6 0.2 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 5.0 4.4 1.4 0.2 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 5.3 4.6 1.3 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 3.9 0.9 0.1 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 2.2 0.6 8.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.5 9.0 11.2 12.4 12.3 12.1 10.1 7.3 5.3 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 93.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 73.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.9% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.1% 98.4% 10.7% 87.7% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
13-7 5.3% 95.9% 7.3% 88.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.5%
12-8 7.3% 85.6% 5.2% 80.3% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 84.8%
11-9 10.1% 72.5% 4.3% 68.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.8 71.2%
10-10 12.1% 45.8% 2.8% 43.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 6.6 44.3%
9-11 12.3% 14.9% 1.9% 13.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 10.4 13.3%
8-12 12.4% 5.2% 0.9% 4.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.8 4.3%
7-13 11.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 11.1 0.4%
6-14 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 8.9
5-15 6.5% 6.5
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 33.2% 2.9% 30.3% 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.8 5.7 5.0 5.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 66.8 31.2%