IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-16.4	#354
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.5	#53
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-10.9	#356

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.5	#326

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	6.9%	1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	15.7	16.0

.500 or above	6.8%	41.4%	6.7%
.500 or above in Conference	37.4%	78.9%	37.3%
Conference Champion	1.8%	11.3%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	9.5%	1.4%	9.6%

First Four	0.9%	3.4%	0.9%
First Round	0.4%	4.9%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 10
Quad 4	8 - 12	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	60	@ UAB	L	60-89	0.4%
Nov 10, 2022	37	@ USC	L	54-85	0.2%
Nov 13, 2022	194	@ Pepperdine	L	66-84	5%
Nov 15, 2022	210	@ San Jose St.	L	60-78	6%
Nov 20, 2022	109	@ Pittsburgh	L	55-79	2%
Nov 23, 2022	178	@ Duquesne	L	60-79	6%
Nov 26, 2022	330	Eastern Illinois	L	66-72	32%
Nov 27, 2022	144	@ Ohio	L	61-82	4%
Dec 07, 2022	309	@ North Alabama	L	66-76	20%
Dec 17, 2022	97	@ Georgia Tech	L	58-83	2%
Dec 19, 2022	230	@ Arkansas St.	L	63-79	9%
Dec 21, 2022	35	@ Memphis	L	58-89	1%
Jan 02, 2023	363	Mississippi Valley	W	80-69	81%
Jan 02, 2023	360	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	72-65	71%
Jan 07, 2023	308	@ Jackson St.	L	59-70	20%
Jan 09, 2023	350	@ Alcorn St.	L	68-73	35%
Jan 14, 2023	341	@ Alabama A&M	L	63-70	29%
Jan 21, 2023	285	Prairie View	L	71-77	32%
Jan 23, 2023	241	Texas Southern	L	65-75	21%
Jan 28, 2023	353	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	67-70	40%
Jan 30, 2023	351	@ Florida A&M	L	64-68	37%
Feb 04, 2023	318	Grambling St.	L	69-73	38%
Feb 06, 2023	279	Southern	L	69-76	29%
Feb 11, 2023	360	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	69-68	53%
Feb 13, 2023	363	@ Mississippi Valley	W	77-72	65%
Feb 18, 2023	351	Florida A&M	W	67-65	56%
Feb 20, 2023	353	Bethune-Cookman	W	70-67	59%
Feb 25, 2023	341	Alabama A&M	L	66-67	47%
Mar 02, 2023	279	@ Southern	L	66-79	15%
Mar 04, 2023	318	@ Grambling St.	L	66-76	22%
Projected Record						8 - 22	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		1.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.5	1.2	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0			3.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.8	1.9	1.6	0.5	0.1					5.1	3rd
4th										0.2	1.3	2.8	2.0	0.5	0.0						6.7	4th
5th									0.3	1.8	3.7	2.3	0.5	0.0							8.6	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.2	4.4	2.7	0.6	0.0								10.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.7	5.2	3.1	0.6	0.0									12.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	3.1	5.3	3.0	0.5	0.0										12.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.7	3.4	5.2	2.8	0.5	0.0											12.6	9th
10th			0.0	1.0	3.6	4.6	2.0	0.4	0.0												11.6	10th
11th		0.2	1.5	3.5	3.1	1.3	0.2	0.0													9.7	11th
12th	0.5	1.5	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.1															5.6	12th

Total	0.5	1.6	3.4	5.8	7.9	9.9	10.9	11.5	11.1	10.1	8.4	6.5	4.9	3.5	2.2	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	98.8%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	81.5%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	46.9%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	22.2%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.8%	1.8		0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		38.2%	38.2%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		23.9%	23.9%		15.9																0.0	0.0	0.2
16-2	0.5%		18.7%	18.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4
15-3	1.1%		15.0%	15.0%		15.9																0.0	0.2	0.9
14-4	2.2%		6.7%	6.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	2.0
13-5	3.5%		5.2%	5.2%		16.0																0.0	0.2	3.3
12-6	4.9%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.1	4.8
11-7	6.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	6.5
10-8	8.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.4
9-9	10.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
8-10	11.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
7-11	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
6-12	10.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
5-13	9.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
4-14	7.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
3-15	5.8%																							5.8
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.6%																							1.6
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	16.0															0.0	0.0	1.0	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%