IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.5	#254
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.1	#319
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.0	#265

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#223

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	11.6%	3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	13.7	14.7

.500 or above	35.9%	73.0%	33.2%
.500 or above in Conference	54.9%	80.2%	53.0%
Conference Champion	5.5%	15.2%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	6.3%	1.3%	6.6%

First Four	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%
First Round	4.0%	11.0%	3.5%
Second Round	0.3%	1.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 5	12 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	69	@ North Carolina St.	L	61-77	7%
Nov 11, 2022	24	@ Purdue	L	58-79	3%
Nov 17, 2022	142	@ South Florida	L	58-67	21%
Nov 21, 2022	300	Albany	W	66-62	62%
Nov 26, 2022	332	Howard	W	78-68	79%
Nov 30, 2022	107	Western Kentucky	L	67-73	30%
Dec 03, 2022	276	Tennessee St.	W	71-66	65%
Dec 16, 2022	114	@ Murray St.	L	61-72	18%
Dec 21, 2022	10	@ Tennessee	L	55-79	2%
Dec 29, 2022	321	@ Queens	W	70-68	57%
Dec 31, 2022	243	@ North Florida	L	67-71	37%
Jan 05, 2023	203	Florida Gulf Coast	L	72-73	50%
Jan 07, 2023	334	Central Arkansas	W	78-68	79%
Jan 12, 2023	225	Lipscomb	W	72-71	54%
Jan 14, 2023	225	@ Lipscomb	L	69-74	35%
Jan 19, 2023	250	Bellarmine	W	65-63	57%
Jan 21, 2023	219	Eastern Kentucky	W	73-72	52%
Jan 26, 2023	242	@ Kennesaw St.	L	66-70	38%
Jan 28, 2023	209	@ Jacksonville St.	L	63-69	32%
Feb 02, 2023	100	Liberty	L	61-68	30%
Feb 04, 2023	321	Queens	W	73-65	75%
Feb 09, 2023	309	@ North Alabama	W	68-67	55%
Feb 11, 2023	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	75-71	62%
Feb 16, 2023	160	Jacksonville	L	60-62	44%
Feb 18, 2023	243	North Florida	W	70-68	56%
Feb 22, 2023	292	@ Stetson	W	67-66	51%
Feb 24, 2023	203	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	69-75	32%
Projected Record						12 - 15	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.1	1.7	1.4	0.7	0.2		5.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.7	2.1	2.4	1.4	0.4	0.0			6.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.9	2.9	2.8	1.1	0.2	0.0				7.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.2	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0					8.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.2	3.6	1.1	0.1							8.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.6	4.0	1.4	0.1	0.0							8.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.2	1.8	0.2	0.0								8.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.5	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.0									8.2	8th
9th						0.1	1.1	3.8	2.9	0.5	0.0										8.4	9th
10th					0.1	0.7	2.9	3.0	0.8	0.0											7.4	10th
11th				0.0	0.6	2.4	3.1	1.0	0.0												7.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.6	2.0	2.5	0.9	0.1	0.0												6.2	12th
13th		0.1	0.6	1.7	1.9	0.7	0.1	0.0													5.0	13th
14th	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0														3.5	14th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.8	3.3	4.9	6.5	8.2	9.5	9.9	10.5	10.3	9.2	7.9	6.3	4.7	3.2	1.8	0.7	0.2			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	97.5%	0.7		0.6	0.1
16-2	79.5%	1.4		0.9	0.5	0.0
15-3	53.2%	1.7		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-4	23.1%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	5.6%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.5%	5.5		2.9	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		53.3%	52.0%	1.3%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		2.8%
17-1	0.7%		38.7%	37.7%	1.1%	12.6								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.4		1.7%
16-2	1.8%		23.3%	23.0%	0.3%	13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1		1.4		0.4%
15-3	3.2%		17.4%	17.3%	0.1%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.7		0.1%
14-4	4.7%		14.5%	14.5%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	4.0
13-5	6.3%		9.8%	9.8%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	5.7
12-6	7.9%		6.6%	6.6%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	7.4
11-7	9.2%		4.6%	4.6%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	8.8
10-8	10.3%		3.5%	3.5%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.9
9-9	10.5%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.3
8-10	9.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
7-11	9.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
6-12	8.2%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.2
5-13	6.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
4-14	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
3-15	3.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.3
2-16	1.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.5%	4.4%	0.0%	14.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.4	95.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%