IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.5	#318
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#76
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.1	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.3	#276

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.1%	21.0%	8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.3	15.7

.500 or above	34.6%	70.2%	31.9%
.500 or above in Conference	72.0%	89.9%	70.6%
Conference Champion	10.6%	24.2%	9.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.6%	0.3%	1.7%

First Four	4.9%	6.1%	4.8%
First Round	6.2%	17.4%	5.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 3	1 - 9
Quad 4	12 - 8	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2022	59	Colorado	L	62-78	7%
Nov 18, 2022	116	@ Grand Canyon	L	61-77	8%
Nov 22, 2022	61	@ Arizona St.	L	59-81	3%
Nov 25, 2022	249	@ Texas San Antonio	L	68-77	23%
Nov 27, 2022	348	Incarnate Word	W	72-68	63%
Nov 28, 2022	257	Dartmouth	L	65-70	36%
Dec 03, 2022	348	Incarnate Word	W	73-66	72%
Dec 09, 2022	72	@ Vanderbilt	L	61-82	4%
Dec 17, 2022	34	@ Virginia Tech	L	55-80	2%
Dec 19, 2022	100	@ Liberty	L	60-78	8%
Dec 23, 2022	41	@ Wisconsin	L	57-81	3%
Jan 02, 2023	285	@ Prairie View	L	72-77	34%
Jan 04, 2023	241	@ Texas Southern	L	66-75	23%
Jan 07, 2023	353	Bethune-Cookman	W	74-64	79%
Jan 09, 2023	351	Florida A&M	W	71-62	76%
Jan 14, 2023	279	@ Southern	L	70-76	31%
Jan 21, 2023	363	@ Mississippi Valley	W	81-69	83%
Jan 23, 2023	360	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	73-65	73%
Jan 28, 2023	308	Jackson St.	W	66-64	57%
Jan 30, 2023	350	Alcorn St.	W	75-67	74%
Feb 04, 2023	354	@ Alabama St.	W	73-69	62%
Feb 06, 2023	341	@ Alabama A&M	W	67-66	50%
Feb 11, 2023	241	Texas Southern	L	69-72	40%
Feb 13, 2023	285	Prairie View	W	75-74	53%
Feb 18, 2023	279	Southern	L	71-74	40%
Feb 25, 2023	351	@ Florida A&M	W	68-65	59%
Feb 27, 2023	353	@ Bethune-Cookman	W	71-67	62%
Mar 02, 2023	341	Alabama A&M	W	70-64	69%
Mar 04, 2023	354	Alabama St.	W	76-66	78%
Projected Record						13 - 16	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.4	1.8	3.1	3.1	1.6	0.5		10.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.1	3.4	4.5	2.4	0.5	0.0			12.1	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.7	4.6	4.4	1.6	0.1					12.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.8	4.3	1.1	0.1						12.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	1.9	4.9	3.8	0.9	0.0							11.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.6	3.4	0.8	0.0								10.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.6	4.0	2.9	0.6	0.0									9.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.6	3.1	2.2	0.4	0.0										7.6	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.4	2.4	1.3	0.3	0.0											5.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	1.1	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.0												4.0	10th
11th		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1														2.2	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.1	2.1	3.6	5.3	6.4	8.7	10.1	11.0	11.3	11.0	9.5	7.9	5.7	3.6	1.6	0.5			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	99.8%	1.6		1.5	0.1
16-2	85.5%	3.1		2.3	0.8	0.0
15-3	54.9%	3.1		1.6	1.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	22.8%	1.8		0.5	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.7%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0							0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	10.6%	10.6		6.4	3.2	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		64.5%	64.5%		14.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
17-1	1.6%		51.4%	51.4%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.8
16-2	3.6%		42.3%	42.3%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	2.1
15-3	5.7%		29.9%	29.9%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	4.0
14-4	7.9%		19.5%	19.5%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.2	1.3	6.3
13-5	9.5%		13.0%	13.0%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1	8.2
12-6	11.0%		8.3%	8.3%		16.0																0.0	0.9	10.1
11-7	11.3%		4.6%	4.6%		16.0																0.0	0.5	10.7
10-8	11.0%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.7
9-9	10.1%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	9.9
8-10	8.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.6
7-11	6.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
6-12	5.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.3
5-13	3.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
4-14	2.1%																							2.1
3-15	1.1%																							1.1
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	15.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	6.9	90.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%