Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#69
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#184
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.5% 4.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 9.4% 10.0% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 28.6% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.3% 25.7% 5.0%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 9.8
.500 or above 57.5% 60.2% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 37.8% 39.6% 13.3%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 10.1% 27.5%
First Four3.6% 3.7% 1.8%
First Round25.4% 26.8% 5.7%
Second Round14.3% 15.2% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 6.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.5% 0.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 23 - 36 - 12
Quad 34 - 19 - 13
Quad 46 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 77-61 93%    
  Nov 11, 2022 256   Campbell W 74-58 93%    
  Nov 15, 2022 224   Florida International W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 19, 2022 302   Elon W 81-61 96%    
  Nov 23, 2022 6   Kansas L 71-81 21%    
  Nov 29, 2022 295   William & Mary W 84-65 95%    
  Dec 02, 2022 109   Pittsburgh W 72-65 71%    
  Dec 06, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 89-66 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 71-78 29%    
  Dec 13, 2022 96   Furman W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 16, 2022 72   Vanderbilt W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 22, 2022 73   Louisville W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 30, 2022 65   @ Clemson L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 04, 2023 7   Duke L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 07, 2023 34   @ Virginia Tech L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 14, 2023 32   Miami (FL) L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 17, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 21, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 71-85 14%    
  Jan 24, 2023 40   Notre Dame L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 28, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 01, 2023 42   Florida St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 04, 2023 97   Georgia Tech W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 07, 2023 20   @ Virginia L 58-67 24%    
  Feb 11, 2023 86   @ Boston College L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 14, 2023 52   @ Syracuse L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 19, 2023 2   North Carolina L 74-82 27%    
  Feb 22, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 65   Clemson W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 28, 2023 7   @ Duke L 70-82 17%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 14th
15th 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 15th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.7 6.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 10.2 9.7 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.1 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 94.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 69.3% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 39.6% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 13.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.5% 99.7% 13.3% 86.3% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 2.6% 99.5% 10.6% 89.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 3.9% 97.2% 9.5% 87.7% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.0%
13-7 5.1% 88.0% 6.9% 81.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 87.1%
12-8 6.6% 74.7% 6.9% 67.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 72.8%
11-9 7.8% 53.3% 5.0% 48.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 50.8%
10-10 9.0% 28.7% 4.0% 24.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 25.8%
9-11 9.7% 9.4% 3.4% 6.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 6.2%
8-12 10.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 1.0%
7-13 10.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8 0.1%
6-14 8.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
5-15 7.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.7
4-16 6.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.5
3-17 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-18 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 27.1% 3.7% 23.4% 7.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 72.9 24.3%