IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.0	#195
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.2	#335
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.0	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#172

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.2%	20.9%	10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.8	13.3	14.4

.500 or above	65.7%	82.5%	52.1%
.500 or above in Conference	76.9%	86.9%	68.9%
Conference Champion	18.6%	26.4%	12.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.8%	0.6%	2.7%

First Four	1.5%	1.2%	1.7%
First Round	14.5%	20.3%	9.8%
Second Round	1.5%	2.6%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 4	15 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	120	Kent St.	L	65-67	45%
Nov 16, 2022	53	Cincinnati	L	64-72	25%
Nov 21, 2022	203	Florida Gulf Coast	W	73-72	52%
Nov 27, 2022	305	Tennessee Tech	W	75-65	81%
Dec 01, 2022	223	Youngstown St.	W	72-67	64%
Dec 03, 2022	277	Robert Morris	W	73-65	75%
Dec 07, 2022	71	@ Washington St.	L	59-71	16%
Dec 14, 2022	219	Eastern Kentucky	W	74-70	64%
Dec 21, 2022	125	@ Florida Atlantic	L	64-71	28%
Dec 29, 2022	171	Wright St.	W	71-69	57%
Dec 31, 2022	333	@ IUPUI	W	67-60	72%
Jan 06, 2023	214	Oakland	W	71-67	62%
Jan 08, 2023	229	Detroit Mercy	W	70-65	66%
Jan 12, 2023	306	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	69-64	64%
Jan 14, 2023	347	@ Green Bay	W	69-60	77%
Jan 19, 2023	215	Cleveland St.	W	70-66	63%
Jan 21, 2023	197	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	70-67	60%
Jan 26, 2023	347	Green Bay	W	72-57	89%
Jan 28, 2023	306	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-61	79%
Feb 02, 2023	277	@ Robert Morris	W	70-68	57%
Feb 04, 2023	223	@ Youngstown St.	L	69-70	45%
Feb 10, 2023	171	@ Wright St.	L	68-72	38%
Feb 12, 2023	333	IUPUI	W	70-57	85%
Feb 17, 2023	197	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	67-70	41%
Feb 19, 2023	215	@ Cleveland St.	L	67-69	44%
Feb 23, 2023	229	@ Detroit Mercy	L	67-68	47%
Feb 25, 2023	214	@ Oakland	L	68-70	43%
Projected Record						15 - 12	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	2.2	4.1	4.9	3.8	2.2	0.7		18.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.6	3.8	5.0	3.4	1.2	0.2				15.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.4	2.2	4.5	4.1	2.0	0.3	0.0					13.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	2.5	4.4	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0						11.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	2.5	4.2	2.7	0.5	0.0								10.6	5th
6th								0.1	0.6	2.4	3.6	2.0	0.4	0.0									9.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	2.7	1.3	0.2	0.0										7.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	2.1	0.9	0.1	0.0											6.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.1	0.4	0.1													4.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0														2.4	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															1.0	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.9	2.8	4.1	5.6	6.7	8.0	9.3	9.8	10.2	9.6	9.2	7.8	6.1	4.0	2.2	0.7			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
19-1	100.0%	2.2		2.1	0.1
18-2	95.4%	3.8		3.4	0.4
17-3	79.8%	4.9		3.5	1.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	52.2%	4.1		2.2	1.6	0.3	0.0
15-5	23.6%	2.2		0.8	0.9	0.4	0.1
14-6	7.0%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	18.6%	18.6		12.9	4.4	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.7%		77.0%	69.9%	7.2%	9.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		23.7%
19-1	2.2%		60.0%	56.0%	4.0%	11.9					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.9		9.0%
18-2	4.0%		46.9%	46.3%	0.6%	12.7											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1		2.1		1.1%
17-3	6.1%		36.4%	36.2%	0.2%	13.2												0.0	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0	3.9		0.3%
16-4	7.8%		28.2%	28.2%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	5.6		0.0%
15-5	9.2%		22.6%	22.6%		14.1													0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	7.2
14-6	9.6%		16.7%	16.7%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.2	8.0
13-7	10.2%		12.0%	12.0%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	9.0
12-8	9.8%		8.4%	8.4%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	9.0
11-9	9.3%		6.1%	6.1%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.4	8.7
10-10	8.0%		4.2%	4.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	7.6
9-11	6.7%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																0.0	0.2	6.4
8-12	5.6%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	5.5
7-13	4.1%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	4.0
6-14	2.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
5-15	1.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
4-16	1.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
3-17	0.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		15.2%	15.0%	0.2%	13.8				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.7	2.0	3.3	3.6	3.0	2.3	84.8		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.6			8.5	16.9	29.4	28.2	2.8	8.5			5.6