IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.6	#210
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.6	#274
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#220

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.1%	2.6%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.6	12.3	14.6

.500 or above	24.0%	31.2%	8.1%
.500 or above in Conference	16.8%	21.1%	7.3%
Conference Champion	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	31.2%	25.4%	44.2%

First Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%
First Round	1.8%	2.3%	0.6%
Second Round	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 10
Quad 3	3 - 6	5 - 16
Quad 4	6 - 2	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2022	251	Georgia Southern	W	70-65	69%
Nov 15, 2022	354	Alabama St.	W	78-60	94%
Nov 17, 2022	141	Hofstra	L	73-74	50%
Nov 19, 2022	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	73-76	41%
Nov 25, 2022	79	North Texas	L	55-64	22%
Dec 03, 2022	11	@ Arkansas	L	62-83	4%
Dec 06, 2022	284	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-61	76%
Dec 10, 2022	127	@ Santa Clara	L	70-78	27%
Dec 19, 2022	228	@ Pacific	L	69-71	45%
Dec 20, 2022	273	Cal Poly	W	69-62	73%
Dec 28, 2022	105	UNLV	L	66-69	39%
Dec 31, 2022	78	@ Colorado St.	L	63-75	16%
Jan 03, 2023	77	@ Boise St.	L	59-72	15%
Jan 07, 2023	126	Nevada	L	73-75	45%
Jan 10, 2023	99	Fresno St.	L	61-65	37%
Jan 17, 2023	110	@ New Mexico	L	72-81	25%
Jan 21, 2023	76	@ Utah St.	L	62-75	16%
Jan 24, 2023	231	Air Force	W	66-62	63%
Jan 28, 2023	23	@ San Diego St.	L	56-74	7%
Feb 04, 2023	62	Wyoming	L	65-73	27%
Feb 07, 2023	99	@ Fresno St.	L	58-68	21%
Feb 11, 2023	76	Utah St.	L	65-72	30%
Feb 14, 2023	105	@ UNLV	L	63-72	23%
Feb 17, 2023	110	New Mexico	L	75-78	42%
Feb 21, 2023	126	@ Nevada	L	70-78	27%
Feb 25, 2023	77	Boise St.	L	62-69	30%
Feb 28, 2023	78	Colorado St.	L	66-72	31%
Mar 04, 2023	231	@ Air Force	L	63-65	45%
Projected Record						10 - 18	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0					2.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0						3.7	4th
5th								0.1	0.7	2.0	1.8	0.5	0.0								5.1	5th
6th							0.1	1.0	2.8	2.5	0.6	0.0									6.9	6th
7th						0.1	1.5	3.6	3.0	0.8	0.0										9.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.3	2.2	5.0	3.7	0.9	0.1											12.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.9	3.6	6.0	4.0	0.9	0.0												15.4	9th
10th		0.3	2.8	6.2	6.6	3.5	0.8	0.0													20.3	10th
11th	2.8	5.9	6.9	4.9	1.8	0.3	0.0														22.6	11th

Total	2.8	6.2	9.8	12.0	12.3	12.2	11.4	9.3	7.4	5.9	4.3	2.8	1.8	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	92.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	91.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	58.8%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	36.9%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	9.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0		0.0	0.0
17-1	0.0%		92.4%	54.5%	37.9%	5.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0						0.0		83.3%
16-2	0.1%		77.2%	8.3%	68.9%	7.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		75.2%
15-3	0.3%		59.9%	23.2%	36.6%	9.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		47.7%
14-4	0.6%		38.1%	10.3%	27.8%	9.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.3		31.0%
13-5	1.0%		19.3%	8.1%	11.2%	11.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.8		12.2%
12-6	1.8%		11.5%	7.0%	4.5%	11.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.6		4.9%
11-7	2.8%		6.3%	5.3%	1.0%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6		1.1%
10-8	4.3%		4.0%	3.7%	0.3%	12.9												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2		0.3%
9-9	5.9%		2.9%	2.8%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7		0.0%
8-10	7.4%		1.8%	1.8%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	7.2
7-11	9.3%		1.8%	1.8%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	9.1
6-12	11.4%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.2
5-13	12.2%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	12.1
4-14	12.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.2
3-15	12.0%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
2-16	9.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
1-17	6.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
0-18	2.8%																							2.8

Total	100%		2.1%	1.5%	0.6%	12.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.5	97.9		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%