IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.2	#134
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.3	#56
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.0	#57

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#260

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.8%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	25.1%	35.0%	20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	1.9%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.2	12.5	13.8

.500 or above	76.6%	91.9%	68.8%
.500 or above in Conference	93.7%	97.9%	91.5%
Conference Champion	30.5%	42.6%	24.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	1.6%	1.2%	1.8%
First Round	24.4%	34.5%	19.2%
Second Round	4.0%	7.4%	2.2%
Sweet Sixteen	1.0%	2.1%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 3	18 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	119	@ Akron	L	69-73	34%
Nov 09, 2022	77	@ Boise St.	L	69-78	21%
Nov 15, 2022	103	St. Bonaventure	L	74-77	41%
Nov 16, 2022	11	@ Arkansas	L	72-89	7%
Nov 19, 2022	166	Stephen F. Austin	W	81-76	67%
Nov 25, 2022	212	Valparaiso	W	77-73	63%
Nov 26, 2022	162	James Madison	W	83-81	56%
Dec 01, 2022	120	@ Kent St.	L	74-78	36%
Dec 03, 2022	22	@ Alabama	L	78-93	11%
Dec 06, 2022	170	@ Montana	L	74-75	47%
Dec 10, 2022	185	Eastern Washington	W	85-79	68%
Dec 19, 2022	122	@ Oral Roberts	L	84-88	36%
Dec 21, 2022	289	@ UMKC	W	80-73	71%
Dec 29, 2022	288	Western Illinois	W	89-76	85%
Dec 31, 2022	357	St. Thomas	W	88-64	97%
Jan 05, 2023	216	@ North Dakota St.	W	77-76	54%
Jan 07, 2023	322	@ North Dakota	W	84-75	77%
Jan 14, 2023	135	@ South Dakota	L	77-80	41%
Jan 19, 2023	307	Nebraska Omaha	W	90-76	86%
Jan 21, 2023	346	Denver	W	86-68	93%
Jan 26, 2023	357	@ St. Thomas	W	85-67	92%
Jan 28, 2023	288	@ Western Illinois	W	86-79	70%
Feb 02, 2023	322	North Dakota	W	87-72	88%
Feb 04, 2023	216	North Dakota St.	W	80-73	71%
Feb 11, 2023	135	South Dakota	W	80-77	60%
Feb 16, 2023	346	@ Denver	W	83-71	83%
Feb 18, 2023	307	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	87-79	73%
Feb 23, 2023	289	UMKC	W	83-70	85%
Feb 25, 2023	122	Oral Roberts	W	87-85	55%
Projected Record						18 - 11	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	2.9	6.7	9.5	7.6	3.2		30.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.6	5.5	8.6	6.5	1.9				24.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.6	6.1	6.1	2.9	0.3					18.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	0.8	2.9	4.4	3.1	0.9	0.0						12.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	0.9	2.2	2.7	1.3	0.2								7.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.2	0.4	0.0									3.8	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0										1.9	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0												1.0	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.7	2.9	4.4	6.5	8.6	11.1	13.2	14.5	13.5	11.3	7.6	3.2			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.2		3.2
17-1	100.0%	7.6		7.0	0.6
16-2	83.5%	9.5		6.9	2.5	0.1
15-3	49.9%	6.7		3.2	3.0	0.5	0.0
14-4	20.3%	2.9		0.9	1.4	0.6	0.1
13-5	4.8%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	30.5%	30.5		21.2	7.8	1.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.2%		76.1%	69.8%	6.3%	10.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.8		21.0%
17-1	7.6%		59.3%	56.9%	2.4%	12.2				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.6	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	3.1		5.6%
16-2	11.3%		44.8%	44.2%	0.6%	12.9									0.0		0.0	0.3	1.4	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.0	6.2		1.2%
15-3	13.5%		33.6%	33.5%	0.1%	13.5												0.1	0.8	1.5	1.4	0.6	0.1	9.0		0.2%
14-4	14.5%		24.1%	24.0%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.3	0.9	1.2	0.9	0.2	11.0		0.1%
13-5	13.2%		17.5%	17.4%	0.0%	14.4													0.1	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.4	10.9		0.0%
12-6	11.1%		12.4%	12.4%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	9.7
11-7	8.6%		8.3%	8.3%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	7.8
10-8	6.5%		5.9%	5.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	6.1
9-9	4.4%		4.2%	4.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	4.2
8-10	2.9%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	2.8
7-11	1.7%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
6-12	0.9%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
5-13	0.4%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		25.1%	24.6%	0.5%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	1.8	4.8	6.2	5.2	3.6	2.3	74.9		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.9	4.7	29.9	42.1	18.7	4.7