Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#182
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#284
Pace65.4#267
Improvement-0.3#250

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#191
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#147
Layup/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement+0.0#138

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#176
First Shot+3.4#74
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#334
Layups/Dunks-0.3#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#100
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement-0.3#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 38.7% 49.1% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 63.2% 50.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.3% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.4% 5.0%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round3.1% 3.8% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 12
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 34   @ Utah St. L 58-75 9%     0 - 1 -2.9 -11.0 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2022 304   Northern Arizona W 73-69 83%     1 - 1 -7.0 -2.1 -4.6
  Nov 15, 2022 66   @ Wake Forest L 65-68 OT 14%     1 - 2 +8.0 -7.1 +15.3
  Nov 18, 2022 262   Morgan St. L 72-73 OT 67%     1 - 3 -6.1 -5.4 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2022 362   Green Bay W 79-56 93%     2 - 3 +5.9 -1.2 +7.4
  Nov 26, 2022 61   @ Boise St. L 69-87 13%     2 - 4 -6.6 +8.3 -15.3
  Dec 03, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 07, 2022 87   @ BYU L 66-76 18%    
  Dec 10, 2022 304   @ Northern Arizona W 71-67 66%    
  Dec 20, 2022 50   @ Oregon L 63-76 11%    
  Dec 29, 2022 63   Sam Houston St. L 59-65 29%    
  Dec 31, 2022 246   Utah Tech W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 291   @ Texas Arlington W 64-61 62%    
  Jan 07, 2023 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 160   @ California Baptist L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 114   Seattle L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 18, 2023 226   Abilene Christian W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 128   @ Grand Canyon L 59-65 28%    
  Jan 26, 2023 183   @ Southern Utah L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 28, 2023 104   New Mexico St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 02, 2023 246   @ Utah Tech W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 08, 2023 160   California Baptist W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 183   Southern Utah W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 114   @ Seattle L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 23, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 226   @ Abilene Christian L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 01, 2023 291   Texas Arlington W 67-58 79%    
  Mar 03, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin W 70-68 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.3 0.9 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.2 1.2 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.9 1.7 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.7 8.3 10.3 12.7 13.9 12.8 11.0 8.5 5.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 88.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.2% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.6% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 17.9% 13.2% 4.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.4%
16-2 0.6% 20.4% 20.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.6% 12.0% 12.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.3% 9.9% 9.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0
13-5 5.7% 8.4% 8.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.2
12-6 8.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.0
11-7 11.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.5
10-8 12.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.4
9-9 13.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 13.5
8-10 12.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.5
7-11 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.2
6-12 8.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 5.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.6
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.7 96.4 0.0%