North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#82
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#104
Pace53.3#363
Improvement-0.1#152

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#124
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#48
Layup/Dunks-5.8#347
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.4#5
Freethrows-2.3#310
Improvement+0.1#106

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#52
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#167
Layups/Dunks+6.0#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#273
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement-0.1#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 21.9% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.7% 7.0% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 12.8
.500 or above 91.9% 92.9% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 90.5% 79.9%
Conference Champion 20.4% 21.1% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four2.9% 2.9% 1.8%
First Round20.1% 20.5% 12.2%
Second Round6.4% 6.6% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 311 - 9
Quad 48 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 33-63 20%     0 - 1 -14.5 -19.6 -2.8
  Nov 19, 2022 154   Fresno St. W 61-52 79%     1 - 1 +6.9 +2.8 +5.9
  Nov 25, 2022 185   San Jose St. W 69-54 76%     2 - 1 +14.3 +14.0 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 68-47 73%     3 - 1 +21.3 +6.0 +18.2
  Nov 27, 2022 138   UNC Wilmington L 51-55 67%     3 - 2 -1.9 -8.0 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 70-54 94%    
  Dec 06, 2022 291   @ Texas Arlington W 60-49 84%    
  Dec 10, 2022 128   Grand Canyon W 57-53 63%    
  Dec 17, 2022 99   Massachusetts W 61-59 56%    
  Dec 22, 2022 307   @ Texas San Antonio W 66-54 86%    
  Dec 29, 2022 68   Florida Atlantic W 61-59 56%    
  Dec 31, 2022 241   Florida International W 70-56 89%    
  Jan 05, 2023 129   @ Western Kentucky W 62-61 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 127   @ Middle Tennessee W 58-57 53%    
  Jan 11, 2023 119   Louisiana Tech W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 58-62 34%    
  Jan 16, 2023 241   @ Florida International W 67-59 75%    
  Jan 19, 2023 278   Rice W 71-56 91%    
  Jan 21, 2023 45   @ UAB L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 26, 2023 307   Texas San Antonio W 69-51 94%    
  Jan 28, 2023 189   UTEP W 62-51 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 278   @ Rice W 68-59 80%    
  Feb 09, 2023 45   UAB L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 124   Charlotte W 57-51 71%    
  Feb 16, 2023 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-62 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 189   @ UTEP W 59-54 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 124   @ Charlotte W 54-53 52%    
  Mar 02, 2023 127   Middle Tennessee W 61-54 72%    
  Mar 04, 2023 129   Western Kentucky W 65-58 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.3 5.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.6 6.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 5.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.6 7.2 9.2 11.8 13.4 13.3 12.4 10.2 6.6 3.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.9% 3.8    3.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 82.3% 5.5    4.2 1.2 0.1
16-4 52.3% 5.3    2.8 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 24.0% 3.0    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 13.4 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 94.9% 43.0% 51.9% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.1%
19-1 1.5% 91.6% 41.2% 50.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.7%
18-2 3.9% 74.1% 36.4% 37.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 59.3%
17-3 6.6% 53.3% 29.3% 24.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.1 34.0%
16-4 10.2% 35.3% 25.4% 9.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.6 13.3%
15-5 12.4% 22.9% 18.9% 4.0% 11.9 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.6 5.0%
14-6 13.3% 17.1% 16.3% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 11.0 1.0%
13-7 13.4% 13.1% 12.9% 0.2% 12.7 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.6 0.2%
12-8 11.8% 10.4% 10.4% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.6
11-9 9.2% 7.5% 7.5% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.5
10-10 7.2% 6.6% 6.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
9-11 4.6% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
8-12 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.8
7-13 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.4% 15.7% 5.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 5.3 5.9 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.3 78.6 6.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 97.9% 3.7 4.2 10.4 36.5 17.7 16.7 10.4 2.1