San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#84
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#58
Pace77.6#26
Improvement-0.3#280

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#85
First Shot+6.3#34
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#336
Layup/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#6
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement+0.0#161

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#84
First Shot+2.6#97
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#164
Layups/Dunks-0.8#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#71
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement-0.3#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 22.3% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.0% 16.8% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.6 10.1 11.3
.500 or above 92.9% 98.0% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 74.5% 63.3%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.8% 3.6%
First Four3.9% 6.2% 2.8%
First Round11.8% 19.0% 8.3%
Second Round4.1% 7.2% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Neutral) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 36 - 210 - 10
Quad 49 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 252   Texas Southern W 90-77 90%     1 - 0 +5.5 +2.5 +1.1
  Nov 10, 2022 285   Cal Poly W 60-48 92%     2 - 0 +2.6 -20.7 +22.2
  Nov 16, 2022 154   @ Fresno St. W 67-60 59%     3 - 0 +10.9 +0.9 +10.1
  Nov 21, 2022 174   Northern Iowa W 75-69 74%     4 - 0 +5.8 -0.9 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2022 95   Wichita St. W 67-63 55%     5 - 0 +9.2 +2.3 +7.1
  Nov 25, 2022 116   @ Davidson L 80-89 49%     5 - 1 -2.2 +9.8 -12.3
  Nov 30, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-68 95%     6 - 1 +9.2 +1.8 +5.9
  Dec 04, 2022 34   Utah St. L 78-83 33%    
  Dec 07, 2022 341   Merrimack W 81-59 98%    
  Dec 17, 2022 78   @ UNLV L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 19, 2022 291   Texas Arlington W 76-60 93%    
  Dec 21, 2022 40   Arizona St. L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 22, 2022 361   Hartford W 86-60 99%    
  Dec 29, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara L 78-79 45%    
  Dec 31, 2022 179   San Diego W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 05, 2023 11   Gonzaga L 80-88 23%    
  Jan 07, 2023 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 12, 2023 110   @ Portland L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 32   St. Mary's L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 19, 2023 228   Pacific W 86-73 88%    
  Jan 21, 2023 87   BYU W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 179   @ San Diego W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 02, 2023 32   @ St. Mary's L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 04, 2023 103   Santa Clara W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 09, 2023 11   @ Gonzaga L 77-91 10%    
  Feb 11, 2023 134   Pepperdine W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 16, 2023 228   @ Pacific W 83-76 74%    
  Feb 23, 2023 110   Portland W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 87   @ BYU L 77-80 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 4.1 1.6 0.2 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.1 8.0 5.4 1.2 0.0 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.1 8.1 3.4 0.4 17.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.2 6.9 2.8 0.2 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 6.2 2.4 0.2 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.4 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.7 9.2 13.5 15.4 16.4 13.9 10.7 6.3 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-2 82.6% 0.9    0.7 0.2
13-3 46.5% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.1
12-4 16.7% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 95.2% 23.0% 72.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.8%
14-2 1.1% 84.1% 14.9% 69.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 81.3%
13-3 3.1% 69.7% 13.4% 56.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 65.0%
12-4 6.3% 47.0% 10.7% 36.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 40.7%
11-5 10.7% 28.4% 9.4% 19.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 20.9%
10-6 13.9% 14.5% 7.0% 7.5% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 8.1%
9-7 16.4% 7.0% 4.8% 2.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 15.2 2.4%
8-8 15.4% 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.6 0.6%
7-9 13.5% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 0.0%
6-10 9.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0
5-11 5.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
4-12 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.9
3-13 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.9% 5.4% 8.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 86.1 9.0%