Creighton
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.9#8
Pace67.8#211
Improvement+0.2#52

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#7
First Shot+9.2#10
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#77
Layup/Dunks+4.7#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#23
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+0.3#16

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#42
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebounds+4.0#11
Layups/Dunks-1.5#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#223
Freethrows+5.7#6
Improvement-0.2#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 7.0% 2.2%
#1 Seed 16.3% 26.0% 11.8%
Top 2 Seed 35.1% 50.0% 28.1%
Top 4 Seed 69.1% 82.3% 62.9%
Top 6 Seed 87.9% 95.2% 84.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.1% 99.7% 97.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 99.5% 96.7%
Average Seed 3.6 2.9 4.0
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.7% 96.9%
Conference Champion 29.7% 35.4% 27.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round97.8% 99.5% 97.0%
Second Round83.2% 89.4% 80.3%
Sweet Sixteen53.9% 62.4% 49.9%
Elite Eight29.7% 36.7% 26.4%
Final Four15.6% 20.3% 13.3%
Championship Game7.6% 10.5% 6.3%
National Champion3.8% 5.5% 2.9%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 6
Quad 26 - 113 - 7
Quad 36 - 019 - 7
Quad 44 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 290   St. Thomas W 72-60 99%     1 - 0 +2.2 -5.8 +8.5
  Nov 10, 2022 297   North Dakota W 96-61 99%     2 - 0 +24.4 +17.4 +7.5
  Nov 14, 2022 353   Holy Cross W 94-65 99.6%    3 - 0 +11.6 +9.0 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2022 152   UC Riverside W 80-51 95%     4 - 0 +27.0 +12.5 +16.5
  Nov 21, 2022 26   Texas Tech W 76-65 67%     5 - 0 +24.1 +19.9 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2022 15   Arkansas W 90-87 54%     6 - 0 +19.5 +18.3 +0.8
  Nov 23, 2022 6   Arizona L 79-81 47%     6 - 1 +16.4 +5.8 +10.7
  Dec 01, 2022 4   @ Texas L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 04, 2022 92   Nebraska W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 10, 2022 87   BYU W 81-70 86%    
  Dec 12, 2022 40   Arizona St. W 72-65 74%    
  Dec 16, 2022 21   @ Marquette W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 22, 2022 55   Butler W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 25, 2022 117   DePaul W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 03, 2023 52   Seton Hall W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 07, 2023 2   @ Connecticut L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 11, 2023 27   @ Xavier W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 93   Providence W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 17, 2023 55   @ Butler W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 25, 2023 42   St. John's W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 28, 2023 27   Xavier W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 178   @ Georgetown W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 04, 2023 80   Villanova W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 08, 2023 52   @ Seton Hall W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 2   Connecticut L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 14, 2023 93   @ Providence W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 18, 2023 42   @ St. John's W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 21, 2023 21   Marquette W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 80   @ Villanova W 73-65 75%    
  Mar 01, 2023 178   Georgetown W 86-65 97%    
  Mar 04, 2023 117   @ DePaul W 80-69 83%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 8.5 7.5 3.9 0.9 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.6 10.3 9.0 4.1 0.8 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 6.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.7 10.9 14.4 16.3 15.4 12.5 8.3 3.9 0.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.9    3.7 0.2
18-2 90.5% 7.5    6.1 1.4
17-3 67.5% 8.5    5.5 2.8 0.2
16-4 37.2% 5.7    2.6 2.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 16.6% 2.7    0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
14-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 19.6 8.6 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.9% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.3 3.0 0.9 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.3% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.5 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.5% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.9 4.6 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.4% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.5 2.4 5.7 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.3% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 3.2 0.7 3.1 6.1 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 99.9% 18.8% 81.1% 4.1 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.0 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.9% 99.9% 14.4% 85.5% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 7.7% 98.9% 12.5% 86.4% 6.1 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-9 4.6% 97.2% 11.5% 85.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.8%
10-10 2.6% 91.5% 8.1% 83.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 90.8%
9-11 1.4% 64.0% 8.5% 55.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 60.6%
8-12 0.7% 20.8% 6.9% 13.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 14.9%
7-13 0.3% 12.6% 7.0% 5.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.0%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.1% 22.3% 75.8% 3.6 16.3 18.8 18.8 15.2 10.8 8.0 4.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.7