UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#279
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#250
Pace80.1#5
Improvement+1.1#55

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#239
First Shot-3.0#278
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#106
Layup/Dunks+0.3#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#307
Freethrows+4.4#3
Improvement+0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#304
First Shot-3.3#286
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#277
Layups/Dunks-2.8#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
Freethrows-1.7#302
Improvement+1.0#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 5.6% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.0% 22.9% 47.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 82 - 15
Quad 49 - 311 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 59-93 3%     0 - 1 -18.5 -12.8 -1.5
  Nov 17, 2022 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 75-97 32%     0 - 2 -23.6 -4.9 -17.4
  Nov 21, 2022 256   Western Illinois W 78-77 55%     1 - 2 -6.6 -4.3 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 91-79 63%     2 - 2 +2.3 +6.3 -4.8
  Nov 26, 2022 10   @ Texas L 54-91 2%     2 - 3 -18.5 -15.7 +0.6
  Nov 30, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 89-82 53%     3 - 3 +0.0 +5.0 -5.5
  Dec 03, 2022 256   @ Western Illinois L 72-90 34%     3 - 4 -20.1 -10.8 -7.4
  Dec 10, 2022 350   @ Houston Christian W 95-82 63%     4 - 4 +3.2 +1.6 -0.3
  Dec 18, 2022 350   Houston Christian W 100-90 80%     5 - 4 -5.3 +3.4 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2022 211   @ Utah Tech L 66-81 25%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -14.3 -9.3 -4.2
  Dec 31, 2022 114   @ Southern Utah L 88-94 OT 13%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -0.1 -0.1 +1.1
  Jan 05, 2023 142   Seattle L 64-66 31%     5 - 7 0 - 3 -3.1 -10.9 +7.9
  Jan 07, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 61-75 22%     5 - 8 0 - 4 -12.0 -11.0 -0.7
  Jan 11, 2023 218   Abilene Christian W 103-86 45%     6 - 8 1 - 4 +12.0 +7.5 +1.2
  Jan 14, 2023 317   Chicago St. W 85-82 68%     7 - 8 -8.1 +3.8 -11.9
  Jan 19, 2023 274   @ Texas Arlington L 73-85 38%     7 - 9 1 - 5 -15.1 -1.6 -13.3
  Jan 21, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 64-83 8%     7 - 10 1 - 6 -9.7 -3.1 -6.5
  Jan 25, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-83 16%     7 - 11 1 - 7 -12.4 -12.2 +1.9
  Jan 28, 2023 156   California Baptist W 64-58 35%     8 - 11 2 - 7 +3.8 -7.9 +11.8
  Feb 01, 2023 82   Sam Houston St. L 65-67 17%     8 - 12 2 - 8 +1.8 +10.3 -8.9
  Feb 04, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. L 71-79 22%    
  Feb 09, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin L 76-81 31%    
  Feb 15, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 69-81 13%    
  Feb 18, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. L 75-83 21%    
  Feb 23, 2023 211   Utah Tech L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 187   Tarleton St. L 74-77 41%    
  Mar 01, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 67-77 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 7.8 7.1 1.0 0.0 17.1 10th
11th 0.6 8.7 11.6 2.5 0.1 0.0 23.5 11th
12th 0.1 6.0 13.5 4.4 0.2 24.3 12th
13th 5.1 11.9 5.2 0.4 22.7 13th
Total 5.2 18.6 28.6 25.3 14.8 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 5.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.7
5-13 25.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.2
4-14 28.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.6
3-15 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
2-16 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.2