Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#63
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#25
Pace64.4#288
Improvement+0.2#37

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#278
Layup/Dunks-1.0#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement+0.2#52

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#24
First Shot+6.7#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#69
Layups/Dunks+2.7#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#110
Freethrows+0.0#169
Improvement+0.1#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 3.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 9.6% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.1% 63.4% 43.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.2% 32.4% 11.2%
Average Seed 10.5 9.6 11.1
.500 or above 99.0% 99.7% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.2% 98.0%
Conference Champion 55.6% 64.2% 51.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.4% 5.8% 3.8%
First Round47.7% 60.4% 41.9%
Second Round17.0% 25.5% 13.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 7.7% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.5% 0.9%
Final Four0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 31.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 37 - 210 - 6
Quad 410 - 121 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma W 52-51 30%     1 - 0 +14.7 -11.7 +26.4
  Nov 17, 2022 70   @ Utah W 65-55 40%     2 - 0 +20.9 +3.2 +18.5
  Nov 22, 2022 266   Northern Illinois W 88-54 90%     3 - 0 +28.6 +9.8 +17.8
  Nov 23, 2022 230   South Dakota W 80-49 87%     4 - 0 +27.4 +9.1 +20.8
  Nov 28, 2022 69   @ Nevada L 60-78 40%     4 - 1 -7.1 -4.4 -3.9
  Dec 06, 2022 41   @ Oklahoma St. L 60-65 32%    
  Dec 14, 2022 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-57 91%    
  Dec 17, 2022 167   @ Texas St. W 63-58 69%    
  Dec 22, 2022 112   @ Missouri St. W 61-60 55%    
  Dec 29, 2022 182   @ Utah Valley W 65-59 71%    
  Dec 31, 2022 104   @ New Mexico St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 05, 2023 128   Grand Canyon W 63-55 78%    
  Jan 07, 2023 135   Tarleton St. W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 12, 2023 183   @ Southern Utah W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 246   @ Utah Tech W 65-55 81%    
  Jan 19, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-60 96%    
  Jan 26, 2023 114   Seattle W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 04, 2023 291   @ Texas Arlington W 64-52 86%    
  Feb 11, 2023 226   @ Abilene Christian W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 15, 2023 291   Texas Arlington W 67-49 94%    
  Feb 18, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 23, 2023 160   California Baptist W 65-54 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 183   Southern Utah W 76-64 85%    
  Mar 01, 2023 168   @ Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 68%    
  Mar 03, 2023 226   Abilene Christian W 73-58 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.8 14.0 15.6 10.8 4.4 55.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.3 6.8 3.8 0.9 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.6 8.9 13.2 15.8 17.8 16.6 10.8 4.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
17-1 99.4% 10.8    10.4 0.4
16-2 94.3% 15.6    13.6 2.0 0.0
15-3 78.3% 14.0    9.4 4.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 49.2% 7.8    3.2 3.3 1.1 0.1
13-5 20.6% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.6% 55.6 41.7 11.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.4% 96.4% 66.4% 30.0% 6.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 89.3%
17-1 10.8% 86.8% 60.5% 26.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 66.7%
16-2 16.6% 71.4% 52.3% 19.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.4 2.4 0.2 4.7 40.0%
15-3 17.8% 55.1% 43.6% 11.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.8 3.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 20.4%
14-4 15.8% 40.4% 35.7% 4.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.4 7.4%
13-5 13.2% 31.4% 29.8% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 2.2%
12-6 8.9% 25.2% 24.9% 0.2% 12.7 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 0.3%
11-7 5.6% 20.4% 20.4% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.4
10-8 3.4% 14.4% 14.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.9
9-9 1.9% 12.6% 12.6% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
8-10 0.9% 6.8% 6.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.2% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.1% 39.7% 10.4% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.7 5.9 12.2 13.7 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 49.9 17.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 99.0% 3.9 3.9 6.5 25.9 32.3 18.4 10.1 1.7 0.2