Seattle
Western Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#113
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#63
Pace74.0#69
Improvement-0.2#328

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#114
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#49
Layup/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#36
Freethrows-2.6#311
Improvement-0.3#355

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#119
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#123
Layups/Dunks-6.3#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#9
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement+0.0#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 16.5% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 92.1% 94.8% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 87.9% 78.4%
Conference Champion 14.7% 16.3% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round14.4% 15.8% 9.2%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 411 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 285   @ UC San Diego W 85-71 75%     1 - 0 +10.7 +14.7 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2022 189   Portland St. W 83-71 77%     2 - 0 +8.0 +0.5 +6.6
  Nov 19, 2022 110   @ Portland W 80-68 38%     3 - 0 +19.1 +4.9 +13.8
  Nov 28, 2022 97   @ Washington L 66-77 34%     3 - 1 -2.9 -3.6 +1.2
  Nov 30, 2022 207   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-62 81%     4 - 1 +1.8 -2.0 +4.4
  Dec 10, 2022 297   @ North Dakota W 77-69 78%    
  Dec 15, 2022 209   @ Oregon St. W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 18, 2022 291   Alcorn St. W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 22, 2022 48   Utah St. L 77-83 29%    
  Dec 31, 2022 161   California Baptist W 71-65 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 310   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-75 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 292   @ Texas Arlington W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 12, 2023 102   New Mexico St. W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 182   @ Utah Valley W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 19, 2023 134   Tarleton St. W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 179   Southern Utah W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 26, 2023 59   @ Sam Houston St. L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 28, 2023 193   @ Stephen F. Austin W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 01, 2023 238   Abilene Christian W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 102   @ New Mexico St. L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 08, 2023 220   Utah Tech W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 11, 2023 129   Grand Canyon W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 15, 2023 161   @ California Baptist W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 182   Utah Valley W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 24, 2023 129   @ Grand Canyon L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2023 220   @ Utah Tech W 72-68 64%    
  Mar 03, 2023 292   Texas Arlington W 74-60 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 4.3 3.6 1.6 0.4 14.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.1 5.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 6.7 4.7 1.5 0.2 16.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.0 8.5 11.6 13.6 14.7 13.1 10.8 7.4 4.2 1.6 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.2% 1.6    1.4 0.2
16-2 85.8% 3.6    2.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 58.2% 4.3    2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.2% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 8.6 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 90.9% 48.1% 42.9% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.5%
17-1 1.6% 63.8% 38.0% 25.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 41.6%
16-2 4.2% 44.0% 32.3% 11.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 17.3%
15-3 7.4% 31.1% 26.8% 4.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 5.9%
14-4 10.8% 20.1% 19.3% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 8.6 1.0%
13-5 13.1% 18.3% 18.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.7 0.3%
12-6 14.7% 11.4% 11.4% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 13.1
11-7 13.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.3
10-8 11.6% 7.7% 7.7% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.7
9-9 8.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.0
8-10 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
7-11 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
5-13 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 13.4% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.1 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.3 85.1 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 15.2 15.2 39.4 18.2 3.0 9.1