Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 Lipscomb 28.6%   16   18 - 11 11 - 5 19 - 11 11 - 5 +0.2      +4.5 73 -4.3 310 72.0 81 +0.8 150 -0.4 3
189 Eastern Kentucky 15.3%   14 - 13 12 - 4 14 - 13 12 - 4 -1.7      +1.6 127 -3.3 270 71.3 99 -2.3 209 +1.6 1
205 Stetson 11.3%   16 - 12 11 - 5 16 - 12 11 - 5 -2.5      +2.4 114 -4.9 328 64.7 289 -0.4 166 -0.3 2
210 Florida Gulf Coast 10.4%   11 - 17 8 - 8 12 - 17 8 - 8 -2.7      -0.9 207 -1.8 225 62.1 338 -4.9 259 -4.6 7
221 Austin Peay 9.2%   14 - 14 10 - 6 15 - 14 10 - 6 -3.1      +1.5 132 -4.6 319 61.7 341 -2.0 203 -1.6 4
241 North Florida 6.4%   13 - 15 9 - 7 13 - 16 9 - 7 -3.9      +0.2 173 -4.1 303 68.1 192 -3.9 242 -2.9 5
247 North Alabama 5.6%   12 - 16 8 - 8 12 - 17 8 - 8 -4.3      0.0 183 -4.3 309 69.6 147 -4.9 260 -4.6 6
255 Kennesaw St. 5.2%   12 - 15 6 - 10 13 - 15 6 - 10 -4.7      -0.8 202 -3.9 290 82.2 4 -4.2 244 -7.4 9
259 Queens 4.4%   11 - 18 7 - 9 11 - 19 7 - 9 -4.9      -0.5 194 -4.4 315 79.7 10 -4.7 254 -5.7 8
284 Jacksonville 2.4%   11 - 16 5 - 11 11 - 17 5 - 11 -6.4      -5.4 309 -1.0 199 65.3 273 -5.7 273 -8.8 11
309 Bellarmine 1.0%   5 - 23 4 - 12 5 - 23 4 - 12 -8.2      -3.5 269 -4.7 323 63.4 315 -10.6 327 -10.7 12
337 Central Arkansas 0.1%   7 - 23 5 - 11 7 - 23 5 - 11 -11.8      -6.0 320 -5.8 343 72.0 82 -11.4 332 -8.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 1.0 100.0
Stetson 2.0 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0 100.0
Austin Peay 4.0 100.0
North Florida 5.0 100.0
North Alabama 6.0 100.0
Kennesaw St. 9.0 100.0
Queens 8.0 100.0
Jacksonville 10.0 100.0
Bellarmine 12.0 100.0
Central Arkansas 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Lipscomb 11 - 5 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 12 - 4 100.0
Stetson 11 - 5 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 8 100.0
Austin Peay 10 - 6 100.0
North Florida 9 - 7 100.0
North Alabama 8 - 8 100.0
Kennesaw St. 6 - 10 100.0
Queens 7 - 9 100.0
Jacksonville 5 - 11 100.0
Bellarmine 4 - 12 100.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb
Eastern Kentucky 100.0% 100.0
Stetson
Florida Gulf Coast
Austin Peay
North Florida
North Alabama
Kennesaw St.
Queens
Jacksonville
Bellarmine
Central Arkansas


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 16   0.1 3.4 15.5 9.2 0.5 71.4 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.1 6.5 8.6 84.7 0.0%
Stetson 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.1 3.1 7.5 0.6 88.7 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 10.4 89.6 0.0%
Austin Peay 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 8.2 90.8 0.0%
North Florida 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.1 6.3 93.6 0.0%
North Alabama 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.1 5.6 94.4 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 5.1 94.8 0.0%
Queens 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 4.4 95.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Lipscomb 28.6% 0.0% 28.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 15.3% 2.3% 14.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 11.3% 0.0% 11.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.4% 10.1% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 9.2% 4.7% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 6.4% 5.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 5.6% 4.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.2% 4.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 4.4% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 82.1% 0.8 17.9 82.1
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0