Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#156
Pace73.5#67
Improvement-0.2#197

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#136
First Shot+5.3#53
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#344
Layup/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#50
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#243
Layups/Dunks-1.7#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#225
Freethrows+3.5#23
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 26.3% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 83.5% 92.3% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 93.4% 89.0%
Conference Champion 30.1% 35.0% 27.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four1.4% 0.9% 1.6%
First Round21.0% 25.8% 18.0%
Second Round1.8% 2.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 33 - 8
Quad 414 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 84   @ Wichita St. L 59-76 21%     0 - 1 -7.9 -8.7 +1.0
  Nov 08, 2023 72   @ Drake L 70-85 18%     0 - 2 -4.6 -1.3 -2.8
  Nov 14, 2023 309   @ Tennessee Tech W 96-65 71%     1 - 2 +25.8 +18.2 +7.1
  Nov 18, 2023 344   Alabama A&M W 106-81 92%     2 - 2 +9.6 +13.2 -6.7
  Nov 24, 2023 209   UNC Asheville W 86-75 60%     3 - 2 +8.9 +5.5 +2.6
  Nov 25, 2023 230   Bowling Green L 61-82 64%     3 - 3 -24.2 -12.3 -12.2
  Nov 26, 2023 243   Wofford W 85-78 67%     4 - 3 +2.9 +3.7 -1.1
  Nov 29, 2023 208   Chattanooga W 82-68 70%     5 - 3 +8.9 +6.5 +2.5
  Dec 02, 2023 79   @ Central Florida L 57-72 20%     5 - 4 -5.5 -12.6 +8.1
  Dec 06, 2023 148   @ Belmont L 80-83 38%    
  Dec 10, 2023 242   Tennessee St. W 81-74 76%    
  Dec 16, 2023 46   @ Arkansas L 71-84 11%    
  Dec 30, 2023 71   @ Florida St. L 71-81 17%    
  Jan 04, 2024 225   @ Eastern Kentucky W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 06, 2024 226   @ Bellarmine W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 275   Austin Peay W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 18, 2024 348   Central Arkansas W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 20, 2024 222   North Alabama W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 220   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 165   @ Stetson L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 31, 2024 307   @ North Florida W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 245   Jacksonville W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 08, 2024 255   Queens W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 212   Kennesaw St. W 88-82 69%    
  Feb 15, 2024 222   @ North Alabama W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 17, 2024 348   @ Central Arkansas W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 24, 2024 275   @ Austin Peay W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 226   Bellarmine W 75-69 72%    
  Mar 01, 2024 225   Eastern Kentucky W 82-76 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 6.6 9.9 6.9 3.2 0.7 30.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 7.7 6.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.3 5.7 1.3 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 5.2 1.0 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.4 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.8 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.2 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.4 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.7 11.9 15.5 17.0 14.8 12.5 7.3 3.2 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 99.3% 3.2    3.1 0.1
14-2 95.1% 6.9    6.0 1.0
13-3 79.1% 9.9    6.4 3.2 0.3
12-4 44.4% 6.6    2.5 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 14.9% 2.5    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 18.9 8.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 54.8% 54.5% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6%
15-1 3.2% 46.2% 46.2% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.7
14-2 7.3% 37.9% 37.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 4.5
13-3 12.5% 33.0% 33.0% 13.8 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 8.4
12-4 14.8% 27.5% 27.5% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.3 0.2 10.7
11-5 17.0% 21.3% 21.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.5 13.4
10-6 15.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 12.9
9-7 11.9% 12.6% 12.6% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.8 10.4
8-8 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.1
7-9 4.6% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.3 4.3
6-10 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-11 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.9 7.0 6.2 3.3 78.4 0.0%