North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#242
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#251
Pace73.5#69
Improvement-0.3#216

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#254
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#226
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#271
Freethrows+3.4#31
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot-1.4#221
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-0.5#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.5% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 40.1% 46.8% 21.7%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 60.9% 48.5%
Conference Champion 7.9% 9.1% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 5.4% 10.1%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round5.0% 5.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 411 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 350   Alabama A&M W 83-67 86%     1 - 0 +0.0 -2.2 +1.3
  Nov 14, 2023 20   @ Mississippi St. L 54-81 4%     1 - 1 -10.2 -11.8 +4.3
  Nov 18, 2023 230   Jacksonville St. W 61-59 59%     2 - 1 -4.4 -17.3 +12.8
  Nov 22, 2023 247   @ Tennessee Martin L 103-105 2OT 40%     2 - 2 -3.5 +3.5 -6.6
  Nov 26, 2023 144   @ Western Carolina L 63-81 21%     2 - 3 -13.9 -8.2 -6.1
  Nov 30, 2023 304   Tennessee Tech W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 02, 2023 44   @ Kansas St. L 67-85 5%    
  Dec 10, 2023 209   Morehead St. W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 13, 2023 344   @ Charleston Southern W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 16, 2023 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 21, 2023 68   @ Indiana L 66-81 8%    
  Jan 01, 2024 51   @ Texas Tech L 62-79 6%    
  Jan 06, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 80-69 83%    
  Jan 11, 2024 210   Bellarmine W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 13, 2024 219   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 55%    
  Jan 18, 2024 260   @ Austin Peay L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 168   @ Lipscomb L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 24, 2024 224   @ Kennesaw St. L 81-85 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 267   Queens W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 01, 2024 162   Stetson L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 228   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 08, 2024 298   @ North Florida W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 10, 2024 251   @ Jacksonville L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 15, 2024 168   Lipscomb L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 260   Austin Peay W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 219   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 24, 2024 210   @ Bellarmine L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 01, 2024 341   @ Central Arkansas W 77-72 65%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.7 4.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 5.0 0.9 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 6.2 2.0 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.3 3.6 0.2 10.0 7th
8th 0.4 4.0 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 1.2 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 3.4 1.6 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 1.2 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.5 8.0 11.2 13.1 14.6 13.3 11.0 8.2 5.7 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 96.1% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
13-3 76.7% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.1
12-4 46.8% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 12.8% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 57.1% 57.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 35.1% 35.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.2% 33.1% 33.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 3.1% 20.2% 20.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.5
12-4 5.7% 19.6% 19.6% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 4.5
11-5 8.2% 11.6% 11.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 7.2
10-6 11.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 10.2
9-7 13.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 12.6
8-8 14.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 14.2
7-9 13.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 12.8
6-10 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.0
5-11 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-12 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-13 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-14 1.3% 1.3
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.5 94.2 0.0%