Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#162
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#82
Pace62.8#327
Improvement+3.1#5

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#76
First Shot+4.3#69
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#218
Layup/Dunks+0.2#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#10
Freethrows-2.4#309
Improvement+2.7#7

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#285
First Shot-5.2#322
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#71
Layups/Dunks-5.7#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#328
Freethrows+3.4#20
Improvement+0.4#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 23.9% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 86.5% 89.9% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 88.3% 80.9%
Conference Champion 29.6% 31.5% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round22.0% 23.6% 15.3%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 413 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 129   @ UNLV L 55-71 30%     0 - 1 -10.5 -11.0 -1.3
  Nov 13, 2023 3   @ Houston L 48-79 3%     0 - 2 -8.8 -6.4 -6.3
  Nov 20, 2023 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-67 70%     1 - 2 +12.5 +12.8 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2023 313   Central Michigan W 71-61 79%     2 - 2 +1.6 +7.0 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2023 83   @ Central Florida W 85-82 19%     3 - 2 +12.2 +11.8 +0.1
  Dec 03, 2023 342   @ Chicago St. W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 05, 2023 120   @ Charlotte L 59-65 29%    
  Dec 17, 2023 275   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 19, 2023 218   @ Florida International L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 22, 2023 36   @ Cincinnati L 65-80 9%    
  Dec 29, 2023 120   Charlotte L 62-63 50%    
  Jan 04, 2024 298   North Florida W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 06, 2024 251   Jacksonville W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 10, 2024 224   @ Kennesaw St. W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 12, 2024 267   @ Queens W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 15, 2024 342   Chicago St. W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 20, 2024 228   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 25, 2024 260   Austin Peay W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 27, 2024 168   Lipscomb W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 01, 2024 242   @ North Alabama W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 341   @ Central Arkansas W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 07, 2024 210   @ Bellarmine L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 219   Eastern Kentucky W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 228   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 22, 2024 267   Queens W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 24, 2024 224   Kennesaw St. W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 28, 2024 251   @ Jacksonville W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 01, 2024 298   @ North Florida W 76-71 65%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.6 8.9 7.0 3.4 1.1 29.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.7 6.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 4.8 1.1 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.5 4.6 4.7 0.9 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.4 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 2.1 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 9.1 11.7 14.0 14.8 13.9 11.5 7.4 3.4 1.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 99.7% 3.4    3.3 0.1
14-2 95.4% 7.0    6.1 0.9 0.0
13-3 77.4% 8.9    5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0
12-4 47.6% 6.6    2.5 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 15.8% 2.3    0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 19.1 7.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 68.7% 65.5% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 9.2%
15-1 3.4% 58.6% 58.2% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 0.8%
14-2 7.4% 46.9% 46.9% 13.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.9
13-3 11.5% 35.8% 35.8% 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.4
12-4 13.9% 28.6% 28.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 9.9
11-5 14.8% 22.3% 22.3% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 11.5
10-6 14.0% 15.9% 15.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 11.8
9-7 11.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 10.5
8-8 9.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 8.4
7-9 6.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.7
6-10 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.5
5-11 1.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.8
4-12 1.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-13 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.3% 22.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.4 7.5 4.3 1.4 77.7 0.1%