Big East
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Connecticut 100.0%   1   25 - 3 15 - 2 27 - 4 17 - 3 +20.7      +13.0 4 +7.7 16 63.3 324 +21.8 2 +21.7 1
10 Marquette 100.0%   2   22 - 6 13 - 4 24 - 7 15 - 5 +16.8      +8.7 17 +8.1 13 72.4 72 +17.5 4 +16.6 2
11 Creighton 100.0%   3   21 - 8 12 - 6 22 - 9 13 - 7 +16.4      +9.6 13 +6.8 23 67.1 226 +14.7 15 +14.2 4
29 Villanova 68.8%   8   16 - 12 9 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 10 +12.6      +4.7 69 +7.9 15 61.4 345 +9.7 59 +10.6 7
30 St. John's 85.9%   8   17 - 12 9 - 9 19 - 12 11 - 9 +12.5      +6.9 30 +5.6 35 71.9 84 +10.6 52 +11.7 6
48 Providence 68.6%   9   18 - 10 9 - 8 20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.2      +3.1 99 +7.0 20 69.2 156 +11.5 40 +11.7 5
50 Xavier 18.7%   14 - 14 8 - 9 16 - 15 10 - 10 +10.0      +5.2 57 +4.8 49 75.3 30 +8.2 73 +10.0 8
54 Seton Hall 76.6%   8   18 - 10 11 - 6 20 - 11 13 - 7 +9.7      +3.9 86 +5.8 33 65.9 257 +11.7 39 +15.0 3
65 Butler 19.9%   15 - 13 7 - 11 16 - 14 8 - 12 +8.6      +5.5 51 +3.1 90 69.8 144 +10.2 55 +8.6 9
175 Georgetown 0.3%   9 - 19 2 - 15 10 - 21 3 - 17 -0.6      +3.4 95 -4.0 293 67.6 212 -1.5 191 -3.7 10
293 DePaul 0.0%   3 - 25 0 - 17 3 - 28 0 - 20 -7.1      -3.7 277 -3.4 275 69.0 166 -9.8 316 -10.3 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.0 99.6 0.4
Marquette 2.0 4.9 88.1 6.7 0.3
Creighton 2.8 28.1 59.6 12.4
Villanova 5.8 4.5 7.6 34.7 16.2 26.8 10.3
St. John's 5.3 0.9 69.9 26.0 2.8 0.4
Providence 5.8 0.9 5.2 44.9 16.1 25.1 7.7
Xavier 7.2 0.1 10.8 12.2 33.4 35.5 8.0
Seton Hall 3.5 5.1 45.2 49.2 0.5
Butler 8.5 0.0 8.8 31.8 59.4
Georgetown 10.0 100.0 0.0
DePaul 11.0 0.8 99.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 1.3 14.9 45.6 38.2
Marquette 15 - 5 12.5 37.6 37.2 12.7
Creighton 13 - 7 19.5 48.7 31.7
Villanova 10 - 10 14.8 37.6 35.5 12.0
St. John's 11 - 9 0.4 11.5 88.1
Providence 11 - 9 9.3 39.3 41.4 10.1
Xavier 10 - 10 9.0 38.2 39.8 13.1
Seton Hall 13 - 7 1.5 44.9 48.5 5.1
Butler 8 - 12 5.5 44.7 49.7
Georgetown 3 - 17 55.4 36.2 7.9 0.4
DePaul 0 - 20 80.7 17.9 1.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 99.6% 95.1 4.5
Marquette 4.9% 0.4 4.5
Creighton
Villanova
St. John's
Providence
Xavier
Seton Hall
Butler
Georgetown
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1   84.9 15.0 0.2 100.0%
Marquette 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2   17.1 46.9 26.9 8.2 1.0 0.0 100.0%
Creighton 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3   3.2 19.7 40.3 28.7 7.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Villanova 68.8% 7.8% 61.0% 8   0.3 2.2 6.6 6.9 10.4 13.1 9.1 13.9 5.9 0.4 0.0 31.2 66.1%
St. John's 85.9% 7.4% 78.5% 8   0.0 1.2 8.5 23.8 28.7 16.0 6.9 0.8 14.1 84.8%
Providence 68.6% 4.8% 63.8% 9   0.0 0.3 3.2 5.9 8.8 15.2 16.5 14.7 3.8 0.0 31.4 67.0%
Xavier 18.7% 4.7% 14.1% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.5 2.9 3.7 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 81.3 14.8%
Seton Hall 76.6% 4.2% 72.4% 8   0.0 0.4 2.9 7.3 16.6 23.7 17.0 7.9 0.9 23.4 75.6%
Butler 19.9% 3.3% 16.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.4 12.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 80.1 17.2%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.8 0.0%
DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 80.3% 58.7% 38.3% 23.4% 13.6%
Marquette 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.6% 64.8% 35.8% 16.8% 7.5% 3.3%
Creighton 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.6% 60.3% 29.2% 13.5% 5.8% 2.4%
Villanova 68.8% 10.1% 64.4% 37.5% 12.6% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
St. John's 85.9% 2.3% 84.8% 46.8% 13.3% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Providence 68.6% 8.2% 64.2% 29.7% 6.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Xavier 18.7% 6.1% 15.7% 6.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 76.6% 2.8% 75.0% 33.7% 7.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Butler 19.9% 14.8% 11.6% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.4 0.1 1.7 13.6 38.9 35.7 9.7 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 6.2 0.1 2.8 19.0 42.9 29.7 5.4 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.4 0.1 1.7 15.1 36.3 33.0 12.1 1.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.8% 2.5 1.2 12.4 36.7 37.9 10.6 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 86.0% 1.4 14.0 42.5 34.8 8.2 0.5 0.0
Final Four 60.8% 0.7 39.2 49.0 11.2 0.6 0.0
Final Game 35.9% 0.4 64.1 33.8 2.1
Champion 19.6% 0.2 80.4 19.6