Xavier
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#43
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#123
Pace75.0#47
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#55
First Shot+5.0#58
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#169
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+1.3#48

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#40
First Shot+4.0#73
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#86
Layups/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#58
Freethrows+0.0#196
Improvement-1.4#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 7.1% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 11.0% 18.6% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.3% 56.9% 34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.0% 53.9% 31.3%
Average Seed 8.1 7.5 8.4
.500 or above 65.3% 80.6% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 65.7% 54.2%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.8% 1.6%
First Four5.9% 5.8% 6.0%
First Round38.6% 54.3% 31.9%
Second Round21.7% 32.5% 17.1%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 13.7% 5.9%
Elite Eight3.5% 5.9% 2.5%
Final Four1.3% 2.1% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 24 - 28 - 12
Quad 34 - 211 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 272   Robert Morris W 77-63 95%     1 - 0 +5.1 -2.4 +6.9
  Nov 10, 2023 251   Jacksonville W 79-56 95%     2 - 0 +15.3 +3.4 +11.5
  Nov 13, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 71-83 11%     2 - 1 +12.0 +8.0 +4.4
  Nov 17, 2023 65   Washington L 71-74 59%     2 - 2 +5.3 -5.1 +10.6
  Nov 19, 2023 61   St. Mary's W 66-49 58%     3 - 2 +25.7 +3.2 +23.4
  Nov 24, 2023 206   Bryant W 100-75 92%     4 - 2 +19.8 +9.9 +5.8
  Nov 27, 2023 134   Oakland L 76-78 86%     4 - 3 -3.1 +4.2 -7.4
  Dec 01, 2023 3   Houston L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 05, 2023 169   Delaware W 81-67 91%    
  Dec 09, 2023 36   Cincinnati W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 16, 2023 175   Winthrop W 84-70 91%    
  Dec 20, 2023 57   @ St. John's L 83-84 45%    
  Dec 23, 2023 74   Seton Hall W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 03, 2024 16   @ Villanova L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 10, 2024 5   Connecticut L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 13, 2024 47   @ Providence L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 16, 2024 50   Butler W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 19, 2024 142   Georgetown W 85-73 86%    
  Jan 23, 2024 15   @ Creighton L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 28, 2024 5   @ Connecticut L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 31, 2024 57   St. John's W 86-81 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 182   @ DePaul W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 07, 2024 16   Villanova L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 10, 2024 15   Creighton L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 14, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 21, 2024 47   Providence W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 25, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 28, 2024 182   DePaul W 82-67 90%    
  Mar 02, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 82-76 71%    
  Mar 06, 2024 50   @ Butler L 75-77 41%    
  Mar 09, 2024 6   Marquette L 74-79 35%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 2.9 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 4.2 6.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.5 5.8 2.3 0.4 14.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.7 7.9 10.5 12.8 13.7 12.9 10.9 8.3 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 79.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.7% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 22.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 3.3% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 5.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.8% 98.9% 10.6% 88.2% 6.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 8.3% 93.8% 7.8% 86.0% 7.5 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.3%
12-8 10.9% 81.9% 6.6% 75.3% 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.0 80.6%
11-9 12.9% 55.5% 5.4% 50.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.9 0.3 5.8 52.9%
10-10 13.7% 29.2% 5.2% 23.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 25.3%
9-11 12.8% 8.1% 3.8% 4.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.8 4.4%
8-12 10.5% 3.4% 3.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.2%
7-13 7.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.7
6-14 5.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.7
5-15 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.3% 5.4% 35.9% 8.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.0 5.6 6.4 5.4 5.7 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 58.7 38.0%