Villanova
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#16
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#17
Pace62.5#333
Improvement+2.9#7

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#19
First Shot+5.9#43
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#59
Layup/Dunks-0.3#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#20
Freethrows+5.3#7
Improvement+1.2#67

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#23
First Shot+6.1#25
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#116
Layups/Dunks+6.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#296
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement+1.7#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.4%
#1 Seed 9.3% 9.8% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 23.4% 24.4% 10.1%
Top 4 Seed 54.0% 55.6% 32.4%
Top 6 Seed 76.0% 77.5% 56.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 95.0% 86.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.5% 94.2% 84.9%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 5.6
.500 or above 98.4% 98.8% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 90.3% 81.6%
Conference Champion 16.2% 16.7% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four2.5% 2.3% 4.4%
First Round93.2% 93.9% 84.3%
Second Round74.1% 75.2% 60.4%
Sweet Sixteen42.2% 43.1% 29.7%
Elite Eight20.7% 21.3% 12.4%
Final Four9.6% 9.9% 5.8%
Championship Game4.2% 4.3% 2.9%
National Champion1.9% 1.9% 1.2%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 26 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 118 - 9
Quad 44 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 264   American W 90-63 98%     1 - 0 +18.4 +16.4 +3.3
  Nov 10, 2023 357   Le Moyne W 83-57 99%     2 - 0 +8.0 +8.9 +1.5
  Nov 13, 2023 189   @ Penn L 72-76 90%     2 - 1 -2.6 +1.6 -4.4
  Nov 17, 2023 59   Maryland W 57-40 81%     3 - 1 +22.9 +1.4 +24.8
  Nov 22, 2023 51   Texas Tech W 85-69 70%     4 - 1 +26.0 +17.7 +8.0
  Nov 23, 2023 12   North Carolina W 83-81 OT 49%     5 - 1 +17.6 +10.2 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2023 34   Memphis W 79-63 62%     6 - 1 +28.1 +12.4 +15.8
  Nov 29, 2023 126   Saint Joseph's W 75-59 93%    
  Dec 05, 2023 44   @ Kansas St. W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 09, 2023 26   UCLA W 67-62 69%    
  Dec 20, 2023 15   @ Creighton L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 23, 2023 182   @ DePaul W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 03, 2024 43   Xavier W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 57   St. John's W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 12, 2024 182   DePaul W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 15, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 20, 2024 5   Connecticut L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 24, 2024 57   @ St. John's W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 50   @ Butler W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 30, 2024 6   Marquette W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 04, 2024 47   Providence W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 07, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 11, 2024 74   Seton Hall W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 16, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 20, 2024 50   Butler W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 24, 2024 5   @ Connecticut L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 27, 2024 142   Georgetown W 81-64 93%    
  Mar 02, 2024 47   @ Providence W 67-65 57%    
  Mar 06, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 09, 2024 15   Creighton W 71-68 59%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.1 4.9 3.0 1.1 0.1 16.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.9 6.4 4.3 1.3 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.7 6.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.2 5.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.8 7.4 10.1 12.2 14.3 14.2 11.9 9.0 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
18-2 96.1% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
17-3 78.9% 4.9    3.4 1.3 0.1
16-4 45.9% 4.1    1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.3% 2.4    0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.2% 16.2 9.9 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 1.2 0.8 0.2 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 6.2% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 1.7 2.8 2.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 9.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.1 2.1 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.9% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.7 1.1 3.7 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 14.2% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.5 0.3 1.8 5.2 4.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.3% 99.9% 12.6% 87.3% 4.4 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 12.2% 99.8% 9.6% 90.2% 5.4 0.0 0.6 2.0 4.0 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 10.1% 98.4% 8.4% 90.0% 6.5 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
10-10 7.4% 94.5% 7.2% 87.3% 7.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 94.1%
9-11 4.8% 77.9% 6.3% 71.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 76.4%
8-12 3.0% 45.4% 5.5% 40.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 42.3%
7-13 1.5% 16.0% 5.1% 11.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 11.5%
6-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.4% 13.7% 80.7% 4.4 9.3 14.1 16.4 14.2 12.5 9.6 6.3 4.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 93.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.3