Marquette
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#6
Expected Predictive Rating+23.4#3
Pace70.4#157
Improvement+0.4#140

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#4
First Shot+11.8#2
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#242
Layup/Dunks+12.2#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#66
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#18
First Shot+6.3#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#102
Layups/Dunks+6.0#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#298
Freethrows+2.7#35
Improvement+0.6#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.3% 7.3% 2.3%
#1 Seed 29.2% 29.2% 7.6%
Top 2 Seed 55.4% 55.5% 19.8%
Top 4 Seed 83.5% 83.6% 58.0%
Top 6 Seed 94.1% 94.2% 84.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.2% 96.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 98.9% 96.6%
Average Seed 2.8 2.8 4.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 97.5% 93.1%
Conference Champion 37.2% 37.3% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round99.0% 99.0% 96.9%
Second Round89.7% 89.7% 77.9%
Sweet Sixteen62.9% 62.9% 51.1%
Elite Eight38.2% 38.3% 19.8%
Final Four21.7% 21.8% 4.6%
Championship Game12.1% 12.1% 0.0%
National Champion6.6% 6.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 6
Quad 25 - 115 - 7
Quad 35 - 019 - 7
Quad 45 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 165   Northern Illinois W 92-70 97%     1 - 0 +18.9 +11.4 +6.5
  Nov 10, 2023 250   Rider W 95-65 98%     2 - 0 +22.3 +15.5 +5.0
  Nov 14, 2023 31   @ Illinois W 71-64 60%     3 - 0 +22.6 +8.3 +14.4
  Nov 20, 2023 26   UCLA W 71-69 70%     4 - 0 +14.9 +10.6 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2023 4   Kansas W 73-59 47%     5 - 0 +33.1 +11.2 +22.0
  Nov 22, 2023 1   Purdue L 75-78 39%     5 - 1 +18.0 +15.4 +2.5
  Nov 28, 2023 319   Southern W 91-61 99.7%   
  Dec 02, 2023 35   @ Wisconsin W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 06, 2023 30   Texas W 81-72 79%    
  Dec 09, 2023 156   Notre Dame W 80-59 97%    
  Dec 14, 2023 278   St. Thomas W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 19, 2023 47   @ Providence W 74-69 69%    
  Dec 22, 2023 142   Georgetown W 89-69 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 15   Creighton W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 06, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 10, 2024 50   Butler W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 15, 2024 16   Villanova W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 57   @ St. John's W 85-79 71%    
  Jan 24, 2024 182   @ DePaul W 82-66 93%    
  Jan 27, 2024 74   Seton Hall W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 30, 2024 16   @ Villanova L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 03, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 10, 2024 57   St. John's W 88-76 86%    
  Feb 13, 2024 50   @ Butler W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 5   @ Connecticut L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 21, 2024 182   DePaul W 85-63 98%    
  Feb 25, 2024 43   Xavier W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 28, 2024 47   Providence W 77-66 84%    
  Mar 02, 2024 15   @ Creighton L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 06, 2024 5   Connecticut W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 09, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 79-74 65%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 8.1 10.3 8.7 4.6 1.2 37.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.3 8.5 7.0 2.7 0.3 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 4.7 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 3.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.4 7.5 10.6 13.7 15.2 15.7 13.0 9.1 4.6 1.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
18-2 96.2% 8.7    7.7 1.0 0.0
17-3 79.4% 10.3    7.3 2.9 0.2
16-4 51.7% 8.1    4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 23.0% 3.5    1.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 26.1 9.2 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.6% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.1% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.2 7.0 2.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.0% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.4 8.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.7% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.8 5.7 7.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.2% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.3 2.8 6.6 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.7% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.0 0.7 3.6 5.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.6% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.8 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 7.5% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 4.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 4.4% 99.6% 12.6% 87.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
10-10 2.7% 98.1% 9.6% 88.4% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
9-11 1.3% 91.8% 6.8% 85.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 91.2%
8-12 0.6% 66.6% 10.7% 55.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 62.5%
7-13 0.3% 22.5% 8.7% 13.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.2%
6-14 0.1% 12.1% 12.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.2% 24.1% 75.1% 2.8 29.2 26.2 17.4 10.8 6.6 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2