Connecticut
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#13
Pace67.4#228
Improvement-2.4#322

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#3
First Shot+11.3#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#194
Layup/Dunks+8.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#64
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-1.4#288

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#15
First Shot+7.2#16
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks+6.9#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement-1.0#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.8% 9.6% 4.9%
#1 Seed 31.2% 36.5% 22.9%
Top 2 Seed 56.8% 64.0% 45.6%
Top 4 Seed 82.9% 88.1% 74.8%
Top 6 Seed 93.4% 96.5% 88.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.7% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 99.6% 97.1%
Average Seed 2.8 2.5 3.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.0% 97.7%
Conference Champion 46.9% 50.3% 41.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round98.8% 99.7% 97.4%
Second Round90.6% 93.0% 86.9%
Sweet Sixteen64.3% 68.1% 58.4%
Elite Eight40.1% 43.4% 34.9%
Final Four23.3% 25.9% 19.1%
Championship Game13.1% 15.0% 10.2%
National Champion7.2% 8.4% 5.4%

Next Game: North Carolina (Neutral) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 25 - 114 - 6
Quad 33 - 017 - 7
Quad 47 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 241   Northern Arizona W 95-52 98%     1 - 0 +36.1 +22.5 +14.5
  Nov 11, 2023 358   Stonehill W 107-67 99.6%    2 - 0 +22.6 +16.4 +2.8
  Nov 14, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 87-53 99.8%    3 - 0 +11.3 +9.4 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2023 64   Indiana W 77-57 83%     4 - 0 +28.2 +13.0 +16.2
  Nov 20, 2023 25   Texas W 81-71 71%     5 - 0 +22.7 +17.9 +5.4
  Nov 24, 2023 322   Manhattan W 90-60 99%     6 - 0 +18.1 +16.9 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2023 235   New Hampshire W 84-64 98%     7 - 0 +13.5 +1.6 +10.2
  Dec 01, 2023 5   @ Kansas L 65-69 44%     7 - 1 +16.0 +13.9 +1.4
  Dec 05, 2023 14   North Carolina W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 97-62 100.0%   
  Dec 15, 2023 10   Gonzaga W 78-76 59%    
  Dec 20, 2023 75   @ Seton Hall W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 23, 2023 53   St. John's W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 02, 2024 192   DePaul W 85-62 98%    
  Jan 05, 2024 47   @ Butler W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 10, 2024 45   @ Xavier W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 14, 2024 145   Georgetown W 87-67 97%    
  Jan 17, 2024 11   Creighton W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 31   @ Villanova W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 28, 2024 45   Xavier W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 31, 2024 44   Providence W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 03, 2024 53   @ St. John's W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 06, 2024 47   Butler W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 145   @ Georgetown W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 14, 2024 192   @ DePaul W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 17, 2024 6   Marquette W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 20, 2024 11   @ Creighton L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 31   Villanova W 73-64 79%    
  Mar 03, 2024 75   Seton Hall W 78-64 89%    
  Mar 06, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 09, 2024 44   @ Providence W 74-69 68%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.8 10.1 13.1 10.1 5.8 1.8 46.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.6 8.2 6.0 2.3 0.4 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.9 9.1 12.6 15.3 16.5 15.4 10.4 5.8 1.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 100.0% 5.8    5.8 0.0
18-2 96.5% 10.1    9.2 0.8
17-3 85.2% 13.1    10.4 2.7 0.1
16-4 61.3% 10.1    5.9 3.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 31.3% 4.8    1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1
14-6 8.7% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 35.0 9.9 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 100.0% 50.5% 49.5% 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 5.8% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1.2 4.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.4% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.3 7.8 2.5 0.2 100.0%
17-3 15.4% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.5 8.6 5.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.5% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.9 5.9 7.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.3% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.5 2.2 5.8 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.6% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.3 0.5 2.4 4.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.1% 99.9% 19.1% 80.8% 4.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 5.9% 99.8% 15.8% 84.0% 5.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 3.6% 97.1% 15.2% 81.9% 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.6%
10-10 2.1% 92.2% 13.8% 78.4% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 90.9%
9-11 1.0% 65.0% 9.9% 55.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 61.2%
8-12 0.3% 36.5% 1.2% 35.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 35.8%
7-13 0.1% 17.8% 17.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.0% 27.7% 71.3% 2.8 31.2 25.6 15.5 10.6 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 98.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.6 9.2 1.2