Creighton
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#15
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#39
Pace68.7#192
Improvement-2.3#345

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#15
First Shot+6.0#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#50
Layup/Dunks+1.9#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#3
Freethrows-3.0#326
Improvement-3.0#356

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot+6.1#24
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#133
Layups/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#17
Freethrows+6.9#1
Improvement+0.7#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 2.0% 0.6%
#1 Seed 7.8% 9.5% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 18.3% 22.0% 9.9%
Top 4 Seed 43.5% 49.4% 29.9%
Top 6 Seed 64.8% 70.6% 51.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.1% 92.9% 83.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.6% 91.6% 81.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.7 5.8
.500 or above 97.3% 98.8% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 92.3% 87.0%
Conference Champion 16.8% 18.8% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.0% 2.3% 4.5%
First Round88.7% 91.8% 81.6%
Second Round68.8% 72.9% 59.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.1% 42.9% 30.5%
Elite Eight19.7% 22.2% 13.9%
Final Four9.6% 10.8% 6.6%
Championship Game4.6% 5.2% 3.0%
National Champion2.0% 2.3% 1.3%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 017 - 9
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 338   Florida A&M W 105-54 99%     1 - 0 +36.4 +31.8 +6.5
  Nov 11, 2023 215   North Dakota St. W 89-60 96%     2 - 0 +23.5 +17.0 +8.2
  Nov 14, 2023 37   Iowa W 92-84 75%     3 - 0 +16.6 +13.2 +2.8
  Nov 18, 2023 237   Texas Southern W 82-50 97%     4 - 0 +25.3 +15.9 +12.4
  Nov 22, 2023 130   Loyola Chicago W 88-65 88%     5 - 0 +25.5 +19.0 +7.0
  Nov 23, 2023 28   Colorado St. L 48-69 60%     5 - 1 -8.1 -17.1 +8.0
  Nov 30, 2023 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 03, 2023 52   @ Nebraska W 75-73 59%    
  Dec 09, 2023 313   Central Michigan W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 13, 2023 129   @ UNLV W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 16, 2023 9   Alabama W 83-81 56%    
  Dec 20, 2023 16   Villanova W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 30, 2023 6   @ Marquette L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 02, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 06, 2024 47   Providence W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 09, 2024 182   @ DePaul W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 13, 2024 57   St. John's W 85-76 80%    
  Jan 17, 2024 5   @ Connecticut L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 20, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 23, 2024 43   Xavier W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 27, 2024 182   DePaul W 82-62 96%    
  Feb 02, 2024 50   Butler W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 07, 2024 47   @ Providence W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 10, 2024 43   @ Xavier W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 13, 2024 142   Georgetown W 85-68 93%    
  Feb 17, 2024 50   @ Butler W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 20, 2024 5   Connecticut L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 25, 2024 57   @ St. John's W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 28, 2024 74   Seton Hall W 76-65 84%    
  Mar 02, 2024 6   Marquette W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 16   @ Villanova L 68-71 41%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.5 5.0 3.1 1.1 0.2 16.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 7.2 4.5 1.3 0.2 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.4 6.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.4 5.0 1.8 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.2 7.2 9.8 12.6 13.7 14.1 12.6 9.7 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 95.1% 3.1    2.7 0.4 0.0
17-3 78.5% 5.0    3.5 1.3 0.2
16-4 47.0% 4.5    2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 17.4% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 10.2 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.3% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.3% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 2.5 1.6 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.4 0.6 2.3 4.2 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 14.1% 99.9% 14.5% 85.4% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.5 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 13.7% 99.5% 11.8% 87.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 4.0 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 12.6% 97.1% 10.4% 86.7% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.9 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 96.7%
11-9 9.8% 90.6% 7.6% 83.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 89.9%
10-10 7.2% 78.3% 8.1% 70.3% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 76.4%
9-11 4.2% 43.3% 5.0% 38.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 40.3%
8-12 2.7% 17.4% 3.5% 13.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 14.4%
7-13 1.3% 6.0% 4.9% 1.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.1%
6-14 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.1% 13.9% 76.3% 5.0 7.8 10.5 12.5 12.7 11.7 9.6 8.1 6.2 4.4 3.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 88.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5