Providence
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#47
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#40
Pace67.3#235
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#77
First Shot+1.5#141
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#75
Layup/Dunks+6.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement+0.6#123

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot+6.1#27
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#156
Layups/Dunks+3.8#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#35
Freethrows-0.1#204
Improvement-0.6#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 13.6% 13.9% 3.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.3% 48.0% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.8% 45.5% 20.8%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 84.3% 85.0% 61.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 52.3% 33.1%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.0% 3.5%
First Four6.5% 6.6% 3.7%
First Round43.9% 44.5% 21.2%
Second Round23.5% 24.0% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.6% 2.9%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.3% 1.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 34 - 111 - 12
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 252   Columbia W 78-59 94%     1 - 0 +11.3 -4.5 +14.0
  Nov 11, 2023 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-69 95%     2 - 0 +1.5 -2.6 +3.9
  Nov 14, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 72-59 54%     3 - 0 +22.1 +7.0 +15.6
  Nov 17, 2023 44   Kansas St. L 70-73 OT 48%     3 - 1 +7.6 -4.8 +12.7
  Nov 19, 2023 94   Georgia W 71-64 68%     4 - 1 +12.2 +2.8 +9.5
  Nov 24, 2023 265   Lehigh W 78-64 95%     5 - 1 +5.4 +2.8 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2023 295   Wagner W 70-50 97%    
  Dec 02, 2023 176   Rhode Island W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 05, 2023 24   @ Oklahoma L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 10, 2023 222   Brown W 77-61 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 243   Sacred Heart W 80-63 95%    
  Dec 19, 2023 6   Marquette L 69-74 31%    
  Dec 23, 2023 50   Butler W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 03, 2024 74   Seton Hall W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 06, 2024 15   @ Creighton L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 10, 2024 57   @ St. John's L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 43   Xavier W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 17, 2024 182   @ DePaul W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 24, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall L 67-68 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 142   Georgetown W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 31, 2024 5   @ Connecticut L 63-75 15%    
  Feb 04, 2024 16   @ Villanova L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 07, 2024 15   Creighton L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 10, 2024 50   @ Butler L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 13, 2024 57   St. John's W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 182   DePaul W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 21, 2024 43   @ Xavier L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 28, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 66-77 16%    
  Mar 02, 2024 16   Villanova L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 05, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 77-71 69%    
  Mar 09, 2024 5   Connecticut L 66-72 31%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.5 2.8 0.7 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.2 5.7 2.4 0.3 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.7 6.7 9.3 11.8 13.1 13.4 12.1 9.8 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 93.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 77.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 55.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
15-5 20.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.6% 99.8% 11.6% 88.2% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 4.7% 99.4% 8.3% 91.1% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 7.1% 98.2% 7.1% 91.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
12-8 9.8% 92.8% 6.1% 86.7% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.3%
11-9 12.1% 78.5% 5.0% 73.5% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.0 2.6 77.4%
10-10 13.4% 57.5% 4.4% 53.0% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.2 0.2 5.7 55.5%
9-11 13.1% 26.0% 3.8% 22.2% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.7 23.1%
8-12 11.8% 6.7% 2.7% 4.0% 11.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.0 4.1%
7-13 9.3% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.3%
6-14 6.7% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
5-15 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.7
4-16 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.3% 4.5% 42.8% 7.9 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.1 6.6 7.0 6.7 5.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 52.7 44.8%