Butler
Big East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#47
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#36
Pace70.8#143
Improvement-1.0#256

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#31
First Shot+6.1#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#145
Layup/Dunks-0.9#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#63
Freethrows+2.5#51
Improvement+2.2#31

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#74
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks+1.1#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#268
Freethrows+3.0#33
Improvement-3.3#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 15.2% 15.4% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.4% 49.9% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.5% 47.0% 21.8%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 9.3
.500 or above 87.0% 87.5% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.2% 56.6% 34.9%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 3.6%
First Four7.7% 7.7% 5.4%
First Round45.7% 46.1% 24.6%
Second Round25.2% 25.5% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 9.5% 3.6%
Elite Eight3.8% 3.8% 1.3%
Final Four1.4% 1.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 294   Eastern Michigan W 94-55 96%     1 - 0 +28.8 +9.9 +17.1
  Nov 10, 2023 354   Southeast Missouri St. W 91-56 98%     2 - 0 +18.5 +1.0 +13.4
  Nov 13, 2023 244   East Tennessee St. W 81-47 94%     3 - 0 +26.9 +2.8 +22.9
  Nov 17, 2023 16   @ Michigan St. L 54-74 23%     3 - 1 -1.9 -3.3 -0.4
  Nov 23, 2023 13   Florida Atlantic L 86-91 31%     3 - 2 +10.5 +17.8 -7.2
  Nov 24, 2023 115   Penn St. W 88-78 74%     4 - 2 +13.4 +14.9 -1.6
  Nov 26, 2023 76   Boise St. W 70-56 62%     5 - 2 +21.2 +5.6 +16.3
  Nov 30, 2023 54   Texas Tech W 103-95 OT 66%     6 - 2 +14.1 +25.8 -12.3
  Dec 05, 2023 321   Buffalo W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 140   California W 79-67 87%    
  Dec 19, 2023 145   Georgetown W 85-73 87%    
  Dec 23, 2023 44   @ Providence L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 02, 2024 53   @ St. John's L 81-83 42%    
  Jan 05, 2024 4   Connecticut L 72-77 31%    
  Jan 10, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 71-81 19%    
  Jan 13, 2024 75   Seton Hall W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 16, 2024 45   @ Xavier L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 192   DePaul W 83-68 91%    
  Jan 23, 2024 145   @ Georgetown W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 31   Villanova W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 02, 2024 11   @ Creighton L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 06, 2024 4   @ Connecticut L 69-80 16%    
  Feb 10, 2024 44   Providence W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 13, 2024 6   Marquette L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 17, 2024 11   Creighton L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 20, 2024 31   @ Villanova L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 24, 2024 75   @ Seton Hall L 72-73 51%    
  Feb 28, 2024 53   St. John's W 84-80 63%    
  Mar 02, 2024 192   @ DePaul W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 06, 2024 45   Xavier W 78-75 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.2 6.0 3.2 0.3 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.1 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 4.5 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 5.5 8.6 11.2 13.0 13.6 13.0 10.4 8.3 5.6 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 92.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 76.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1
14-6 7.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.5% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.6% 99.6% 11.5% 88.1% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 8.3% 97.3% 8.7% 88.5% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.0%
12-8 10.4% 91.0% 5.9% 85.1% 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.9 90.4%
11-9 13.0% 77.0% 6.4% 70.6% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.9 1.4 0.1 3.0 75.4%
10-10 13.6% 55.2% 4.7% 50.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.9 2.8 0.2 6.1 53.0%
9-11 13.0% 20.1% 4.2% 15.9% 11.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.4 16.6%
8-12 11.2% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.7 1.6%
7-13 8.6% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4
6-14 5.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 49.4% 5.5% 44.0% 7.8 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.7 4.0 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.6 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 50.6 46.5%