Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.4#23
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.3% 8.5% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 19.1% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 29.3% 29.9% 9.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.6% 63.4% 34.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.9% 49.8% 24.2%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.4
.500 or above 93.7% 94.2% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 94.9% 88.4%
Conference Champion 37.7% 38.3% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 4.4%
First Round60.2% 61.0% 32.4%
Second Round39.6% 40.3% 17.4%
Sweet Sixteen19.9% 20.3% 7.3%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.2% 2.8%
Final Four4.7% 4.8% 1.4%
Championship Game2.2% 2.3% 0.8%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 28 - 7
Quad 37 - 115 - 8
Quad 46 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 86-66 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 52   @ Missouri L 80-81 49%    
  Nov 17, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 88-60 99%    
  Nov 22, 2023 48   Michigan W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 02, 2023 60   @ Mississippi W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 06, 2023 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 10, 2023 22   @ Texas A&M L 73-77 38%    
  Dec 16, 2023 45   Clemson W 80-75 67%    
  Dec 19, 2023 34   Virginia W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 23, 2023 87   Vanderbilt W 82-72 79%    
  Dec 30, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 83-64 95%    
  Jan 04, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 84-71 87%    
  Jan 07, 2024 101   SMU W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 10, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 90-70 95%    
  Jan 14, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 18, 2024 145   South Florida W 84-70 87%    
  Jan 21, 2024 99   @ Tulane W 87-82 66%    
  Jan 28, 2024 77   @ UAB W 83-80 59%    
  Jan 31, 2024 178   Rice W 90-74 91%    
  Feb 03, 2024 95   Wichita St. W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 08, 2024 138   @ Temple W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 11, 2024 99   Tulane W 90-79 81%    
  Feb 15, 2024 90   @ North Texas W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 18, 2024 101   @ SMU W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 156   Charlotte W 75-60 89%    
  Feb 25, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 29, 2024 146   @ East Carolina W 80-72 74%    
  Mar 03, 2024 77   UAB W 86-77 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 76-79 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.9 9.2 11.1 8.0 3.2 37.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.9 7.8 4.7 1.3 0.0 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 4.0 6.1 8.5 10.9 13.1 14.5 14.1 12.4 8.0 3.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 99.9% 8.0    7.5 0.5
16-2 89.6% 11.1    9.0 2.1 0.1
15-3 65.2% 9.2    5.6 3.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 33.8% 4.9    1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1
13-5 9.6% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 27.3 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 8.0% 99.6% 51.1% 48.5% 3.0 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
16-2 12.4% 97.0% 42.7% 54.3% 4.7 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 94.8%
15-3 14.1% 89.5% 33.3% 56.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 84.3%
14-4 14.5% 77.7% 26.3% 51.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.2 69.7%
13-5 13.1% 60.1% 21.7% 38.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.2 49.0%
12-6 10.9% 38.2% 15.9% 22.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 26.5%
11-7 8.5% 24.1% 13.4% 10.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 12.4%
10-8 6.1% 14.2% 9.8% 4.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 4.8%
9-9 4.0% 9.3% 9.1% 0.2% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 0.3%
8-10 2.4% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.0%
7-11 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 62.6% 26.8% 35.8% 6.7 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.6 6.1 7.3 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 37.4 48.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 74.9 23.1 1.8 0.2