Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#128
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#110
Pace70.9#138
Improvement-5.0#359

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#191
Layup/Dunks+1.9#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#298
Freethrows-0.4#202
Improvement-1.7#312

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#351
Layups/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#29
Freethrows+0.5#156
Improvement-3.3#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 36.5% 28.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 98.4% 99.7% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 97.2% 94.3%
Conference Champion 39.6% 46.2% 35.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round31.4% 36.3% 28.0%
Second Round4.5% 6.1% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 35 - 5
Quad 414 - 319 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 285   @ Dartmouth W 81-48 72%     1 - 0 +29.3 +8.6 +20.5
  Nov 14, 2023 104   @ Georgia Tech W 74-71 32%     2 - 0 +10.4 +1.8 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2023 81   @ Arizona St. L 69-71 26%     2 - 1 +7.3 +3.6 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2023 249   @ St. Peter's W 69-61 65%     3 - 1 +6.5 +2.2 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2023 358   @ Stonehill W 80-74 90%     4 - 1 -5.4 +5.6 -10.7
  Dec 02, 2023 259   @ Merrimack L 68-74 67%     4 - 2 -8.2 -2.9 -5.1
  Dec 09, 2023 133   @ Massachusetts L 75-78 41%    
  Dec 12, 2023 347   LIU Brooklyn W 86-68 95%    
  Dec 16, 2023 314   Central Connecticut St. W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 22, 2023 276   @ Boston University W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 06, 2024 235   @ New Hampshire W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 11, 2024 352   NJIT W 84-65 96%    
  Jan 13, 2024 310   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 91-77 90%    
  Jan 18, 2024 256   @ Albany W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 280   @ Binghamton W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 25, 2024 110   Vermont W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 01, 2024 251   Maine W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 03, 2024 235   New Hampshire W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 08, 2024 310   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 88-80 75%    
  Feb 10, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 81-68 87%    
  Feb 17, 2024 197   @ Bryant W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 22, 2024 280   Binghamton W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 24, 2024 256   Albany W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 29, 2024 197   Bryant W 79-72 74%    
  Mar 02, 2024 110   @ Vermont L 67-71 35%    
  Mar 05, 2024 251   @ Maine W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.4 11.4 11.4 6.5 2.1 39.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.9 9.0 9.8 4.9 1.0 29.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.1 0.3 8.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 5.0 8.3 12.4 15.3 17.2 16.4 12.4 6.5 2.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-1 100.0% 6.5    6.2 0.3
14-2 92.2% 11.4    9.4 2.0 0.0
13-3 69.8% 11.4    7.1 4.0 0.3
12-4 37.0% 6.4    2.3 3.2 0.9 0.0
11-5 11.3% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.6% 39.6 27.4 10.3 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.1% 77.0% 68.1% 9.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 28.1%
15-1 6.5% 60.0% 59.8% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 0.5%
14-2 12.4% 48.3% 48.3% 12.8 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.4
13-3 16.4% 39.0% 39.0% 13.2 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.1 0.1 10.0
12-4 17.2% 32.0% 32.0% 13.7 0.2 1.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 11.7
11-5 15.3% 24.6% 24.6% 14.1 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.1 11.5
10-6 12.4% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 10.0
9-7 8.3% 14.8% 14.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 7.1
8-8 5.0% 11.6% 11.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 4.4
7-9 2.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-10 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.6% 31.4% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 5.8 10.2 8.9 3.8 1.1 68.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 78.0% 9.0 0.2 5.2 2.0 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.1 9.2 17.3 12.1