Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#267
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#237
Pace67.0#228
Improvement+0.9#148

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#282
First Shot-2.0#239
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#301
Layup/Dunks+2.8#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#304
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement-0.7#227

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#211
First Shot-2.2#254
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#87
Layups/Dunks-2.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement+1.6#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 25.3% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.5% 44.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.4% 8.5% 7.9%
First Round19.8% 20.5% 12.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 415 - 617 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 204   @ Rhode Island L 70-81 30%     0 - 1 -10.7 -4.9 -5.8
  Nov 10, 2023 191   @ Quinnipiac L 70-74 28%     0 - 2 -3.2 -5.1 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2023 345   Manhattan L 63-67 84%     0 - 3 -19.7 -14.4 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2023 90   @ Massachusetts L 60-89 10%     0 - 4 -20.0 -6.3 -15.2
  Nov 29, 2023 330   @ Army W 79-51 62%     1 - 4 +19.6 +16.2 +6.7
  Dec 02, 2023 348   Holy Cross W 78-67 84%     2 - 4 -5.1 -1.5 -3.3
  Dec 05, 2023 93   @ Boston College L 68-82 10%     2 - 5 -5.2 -7.2 +3.0
  Dec 09, 2023 244   @ Maine L 56-69 35%     2 - 6 -14.4 -12.4 -2.2
  Dec 16, 2023 149   @ Umass Lowell W 57-54 20%     3 - 6 +6.8 -13.8 +20.6
  Dec 19, 2023 242   Northeastern L 74-79 56%     3 - 7 -11.7 +1.2 -13.2
  Dec 21, 2023 183   @ Fordham W 82-80 26%     4 - 7 +3.4 +12.2 -8.8
  Jan 04, 2024 360   @ Stonehill W 74-59 79%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +1.3 -4.5 +5.5
  Jan 13, 2024 354   @ St. Francis (PA) W 75-61 75%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +1.8 +2.7 +0.3
  Jan 15, 2024 222   Merrimack W 75-70 52%     7 - 7 3 - 0 -0.8 +1.3 -2.3
  Jan 19, 2024 319   Le Moyne L 73-75 75%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -14.2 -3.6 -10.6
  Jan 21, 2024 351   @ LIU Brooklyn W 72-63 73%     8 - 8 4 - 1 -2.5 +3.3 -4.9
  Jan 25, 2024 329   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-60 61%     9 - 8 5 - 1 +7.9 +3.7 +5.2
  Jan 27, 2024 316   Wagner W 69-68 OT 73%     10 - 8 6 - 1 -10.6 -0.1 -10.4
  Feb 01, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 63-62 87%     11 - 8 7 - 1 -16.7 -12.5 -4.1
  Feb 03, 2024 222   @ Merrimack L 68-71 32%     11 - 9 7 - 2 -3.4 +3.4 -6.9
  Feb 08, 2024 303   Sacred Heart W 77-70 69%     12 - 9 8 - 2 -3.4 -6.0 +2.2
  Feb 10, 2024 329   Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-62 78%     13 - 9 9 - 2 -4.5 -15.9 +10.5
  Feb 15, 2024 319   @ Le Moyne L 64-69 OT 56%     13 - 10 9 - 3 -11.8 -9.5 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2024 316   @ Wagner W 73-72 53%     14 - 10 10 - 3 -5.2 +1.7 -6.8
  Feb 24, 2024 303   @ Sacred Heart W 68-67 49%     15 - 10 11 - 3 -3.9 -5.9 +1.9
  Feb 29, 2024 351   LIU Brooklyn W 78-64 86%     16 - 10 12 - 3 -3.0 -1.3 -1.7
  Mar 02, 2024 360   Stonehill W 75-61 91%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 40.5 40.5 1st
2nd 9.1 50.4 59.5 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 9.1 90.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 44.5% 40.5    40.5
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 40.5% 40.5 40.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 90.9% 25.3% 25.3% 15.7 0.3 5.3 17.4 67.9
12-4 9.1% 17.1% 17.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 7.6
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.3 5.5 18.7 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 90.9% 25.3% 15.7 0.3 5.8 19.2
Lose Out 9.1% 17.1% 15.8 0.1 2.7 14.2