Vermont
America East
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#90
Pace60.5#347
Improvement-1.9#299

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#92
First Shot+2.3#111
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#142
Layup/Dunks-3.4#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.4#3
Freethrows-2.0#290
Improvement-1.8#319

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#145
First Shot+0.8#148
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks-3.0#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-0.1#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 47.8% 39.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.5% 97.1%
Conference Champion 52.5% 56.1% 47.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round44.5% 47.7% 39.6%
Second Round7.3% 8.3% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 7
Quad 413 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 259   Merrimack W 67-55 87%     1 - 0 +3.8 +9.9 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2023 107   College of Charleston W 73-64 49%     2 - 0 +13.0 +5.1 +8.3
  Nov 17, 2023 188   Saint Louis W 78-68 69%     3 - 0 +8.8 +9.0 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2023 61   Liberty L 61-71 34%     3 - 1 -1.8 -3.7 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2023 92   @ Bradley L 70-79 33%     3 - 2 -0.7 +5.2 -6.3
  Nov 29, 2023 285   Dartmouth W 64-53 89%     4 - 2 +1.3 -2.8 +5.5
  Dec 02, 2023 91   Yale W 66-65 56%     5 - 2 +3.5 +2.8 +0.8
  Dec 06, 2023 210   @ Northeastern W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 127   Colgate W 69-65 66%    
  Dec 16, 2023 58   @ Virginia Tech L 65-73 24%    
  Dec 20, 2023 120   @ Toledo L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 22, 2023 252   @ Miami (OH) W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 02, 2024 232   @ Brown W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 251   Maine W 71-59 86%    
  Jan 11, 2024 310   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 84-69 92%    
  Jan 13, 2024 352   NJIT W 79-59 97%    
  Jan 18, 2024 280   @ Binghamton W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 25, 2024 128   @ Umass Lowell L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 197   @ Bryant W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 01, 2024 256   Albany W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 03, 2024 280   Binghamton W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 08, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 10, 2024 310   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 15, 2024 235   New Hampshire W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 17, 2024 251   @ Maine W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 22, 2024 256   @ Albany W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 24, 2024 197   Bryant W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 02, 2024 128   Umass Lowell W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 05, 2024 235   @ New Hampshire W 73-69 66%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.1 8.0 13.7 15.1 10.0 3.4 52.5 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 7.7 9.1 5.0 1.1 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.5 0.2 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 5.6 9.5 14.0 17.9 18.7 16.2 10.0 3.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
15-1 100.0% 10.0    9.7 0.3
14-2 93.5% 15.1    12.9 2.2 0.0
13-3 73.3% 13.7    9.1 4.2 0.3
12-4 44.5% 8.0    3.5 3.6 0.9 0.0
11-5 14.9% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.5% 52.5 39.2 11.2 2.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.4% 79.1% 76.9% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.7 9.6%
15-1 10.0% 69.1% 68.5% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 1.8%
14-2 16.2% 60.9% 60.9% 12.6 0.7 3.8 4.0 1.3 0.1 6.3
13-3 18.7% 49.0% 49.0% 13.0 0.1 2.4 4.1 2.3 0.3 9.5
12-4 17.9% 41.0% 41.0% 13.3 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.6
11-5 14.0% 33.3% 33.3% 13.9 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 9.3
10-6 9.5% 26.0% 26.0% 14.2 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 7.0
9-7 5.6% 15.7% 15.7% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.8
8-8 2.6% 18.8% 18.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.1
7-9 1.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
6-10 0.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 44.7% 44.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.1 11.7 15.5 10.1 3.2 0.6 55.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 96.2% 7.2 3.2 7.7 8.3 17.3 14.1 15.4 18.6 8.3 3.2