Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#81
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#68
Pace69.6#172
Improvement+1.0#112

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#161
First Shot+2.2#114
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#268
Layup/Dunks+4.7#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
Freethrows-0.1#178
Improvement+0.2#151

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#30
First Shot+4.1#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#68
Layups/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows+2.6#48
Improvement+0.8#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.5% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 19.3% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.0% 16.4% 6.6%
Average Seed 9.5 9.2 10.2
.500 or above 43.0% 53.7% 29.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.4% 39.4% 28.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 6.6% 10.9%
First Four3.5% 4.4% 2.5%
First Round12.7% 16.9% 7.4%
Second Round5.5% 7.5% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 46 - 14
Quad 36 - 212 - 16
Quad 43 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 27   Mississippi St. L 56-71 27%     0 - 1 -2.4 -5.1 +2.4
  Nov 11, 2023 233   Texas Southern W 63-52 88%     1 - 1 +4.5 -13.9 +18.0
  Nov 16, 2023 128   Umass Lowell W 71-69 74%     2 - 1 +1.5 -2.4 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2023 9   BYU L 49-77 17%     2 - 2 -11.7 -14.6 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2023 178   Vanderbilt W 82-67 75%     3 - 2 +14.4 +11.7 +3.5
  Nov 29, 2023 141   Sam Houston St. W 78-61 77%     4 - 2 +15.5 +0.3 +13.9
  Dec 03, 2023 69   San Francisco W 68-67 56%    
  Dec 06, 2023 95   SMU W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 09, 2023 215   @ San Diego W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 16, 2023 29   TCU L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 20, 2023 52   Northwestern L 65-68 38%    
  Dec 29, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 31, 2023 140   @ California W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 04, 2024 38   Utah L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 40   Colorado L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 11, 2024 57   @ Washington L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 17, 2024 41   UCLA L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 20, 2024 32   USC L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 25, 2024 49   @ Oregon L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 147   @ Oregon St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 101   Stanford W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 140   California W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 08, 2024 40   @ Colorado L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 10, 2024 38   @ Utah L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 14, 2024 147   Oregon St. W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 68-84 7%    
  Feb 22, 2024 57   Washington W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 24, 2024 62   Washington St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 28, 2024 2   Arizona L 71-81 18%    
  Mar 07, 2024 32   @ USC L 66-75 23%    
  Mar 09, 2024 41   @ UCLA L 60-68 24%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.7 2.4 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 5.7 3.5 0.7 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.1 3.0 0.6 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 2.7 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 5.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 5.1 7.6 11.0 12.1 12.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 5.8 3.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 63.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 51.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 97.6% 12.2% 85.3% 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
15-5 1.2% 92.4% 7.5% 84.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.7%
14-6 2.6% 88.3% 7.6% 80.7% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 87.3%
13-7 3.7% 71.0% 5.7% 65.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 69.2%
12-8 5.8% 51.9% 5.4% 46.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.8 49.2%
11-9 8.8% 26.6% 4.8% 21.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.4 22.9%
10-10 11.7% 10.4% 4.1% 6.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.5 6.6%
9-11 12.8% 4.3% 3.0% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.2 1.4%
8-12 12.7% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4 0.1%
7-13 12.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.9
6-14 11.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.8
5-15 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.6
4-16 5.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.0
3-17 2.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.6% 3.0% 11.7% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 85.4 12.0%