Merrimack
Northeast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#222
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#210
Pace67.9#200
Improvement+0.4#172

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#337
First Shot-2.6#259
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#358
Layup/Dunks+1.2#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#275
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement-1.5#266

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#64
First Shot+7.7#11
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#360
Layups/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#26
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement+1.9#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.3% 60.9% 52.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.2% 14.3% 18.6%
First Round49.4% 54.2% 43.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 417 - 418 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 106   @ Vermont L 55-67 17%     0 - 1 -4.8 -0.5 -7.0
  Nov 12, 2023 244   @ Maine W 71-65 43%     1 - 1 +4.6 +5.1 -0.2
  Nov 15, 2023 55   @ Ohio St. L 52-76 8%     1 - 2 -11.7 -14.0 +1.3
  Nov 22, 2023 346   N.C. A&T W 96-73 82%     2 - 2 +10.0 +6.1 +1.3
  Nov 24, 2023 95   @ Samford L 71-79 14%     2 - 3 +0.7 +0.5 +0.2
  Nov 25, 2023 324   Alabama St. L 60-66 OT 74%     2 - 4 -15.7 -18.1 +2.9
  Nov 29, 2023 175   @ Georgetown L 67-69 31%     2 - 5 +0.1 -7.9 +8.0
  Dec 02, 2023 149   Umass Lowell W 74-68 44%     3 - 5 +4.3 -2.2 +6.4
  Dec 05, 2023 25   @ Florida L 57-77 5%     3 - 6 -4.2 -11.3 +7.3
  Dec 19, 2023 43   @ Cincinnati L 49-65 7%     3 - 7 -2.5 -14.5 +11.5
  Dec 22, 2023 292   Bucknell W 68-52 74%     4 - 7 +6.2 +1.0 +7.5
  Dec 30, 2023 295   @ Boston University L 63-74 56%     4 - 8 -15.5 -7.9 -8.0
  Jan 04, 2024 329   Fairleigh Dickinson W 60-56 84%     5 - 8 1 - 0 -9.5 -18.9 +9.4
  Jan 06, 2024 303   Sacred Heart W 82-58 76%     6 - 8 2 - 0 +13.6 +3.6 +10.0
  Jan 13, 2024 319   @ Le Moyne W 66-62 64%     7 - 8 3 - 0 -2.8 -5.5 +3.0
  Jan 15, 2024 267   @ Central Connecticut St. L 70-75 48%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -7.6 -5.9 -1.5
  Jan 19, 2024 316   Wagner L 65-71 79%     7 - 10 3 - 2 -17.6 -4.4 -13.9
  Jan 21, 2024 360   Stonehill W 63-47 92%     8 - 10 4 - 2 -3.2 -15.6 +12.8
  Jan 25, 2024 316   @ Wagner W 60-44 62%     9 - 10 5 - 2 +9.8 -1.0 +14.1
  Jan 27, 2024 354   @ St. Francis (PA) W 74-55 81%     10 - 10 6 - 2 +6.8 -4.0 +11.0
  Feb 03, 2024 267   Central Connecticut St. W 71-68 68%     11 - 10 7 - 2 -5.0 -1.3 -3.6
  Feb 08, 2024 351   @ LIU Brooklyn W 82-79 OT 79%     12 - 10 8 - 2 -8.5 -10.3 +1.2
  Feb 10, 2024 319   Le Moyne W 66-50 81%     13 - 10 9 - 2 +3.8 -11.1 +15.3
  Feb 15, 2024 360   @ Stonehill W 66-63 84%     14 - 10 10 - 2 -10.7 -8.8 -1.8
  Feb 17, 2024 351   LIU Brooklyn W 83-68 90%     15 - 10 11 - 2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.6
  Feb 22, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 71-60 91%     16 - 10 12 - 2 -6.7 -4.7 -1.1
  Feb 29, 2024 329   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-55 68%     17 - 10 13 - 2 +10.9 -2.7 +13.7
  Mar 02, 2024 303   @ Sacred Heart W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 44.5 55.5 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 44.5 55.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 55.5    55.5
13-3 100.0% 44.5    4.1 40.5
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 59.5 40.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 55.5% 60.9% 60.9% 15.6 0.0 1.2 10.7 22.0 21.7
13-3 44.5% 52.7% 52.7% 15.8 0.3 4.8 18.3 21.1
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 57.3% 57.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 1.5 15.5 40.3 42.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 55.5% 60.9% 15.6 0.0 2.1 19.2 39.6
Lose Out 44.5% 52.7% 15.8 0.7 10.9 41.1