Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#154
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#117
Pace78.4#20
Improvement+1.9#67

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#153
First Shot-2.3#234
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#36
Layup/Dunks-1.1#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+1.3#87

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#171
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#23
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+0.5#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 20.8% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 93.7% 97.1% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 95.6% 84.5%
Conference Champion 25.4% 33.3% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.4% 20.8% 12.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 177 @Ohio W 89-85 44%     1 - 0 +5.9 +9.3 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 7 137 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 34%     1 - 1 -20.5 -7.8 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 260 @Missouri St. W 86-85 61%     2 - 1 -1.5 +2.6 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 19 39 @St. Mary's L 72-85 9%     2 - 2 +2.1 +9.3 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 40 @SMU L 69-100 9%     2 - 3 -16.0 -6.5 -5.6
  Mon, Nov 24 253 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 79%     3 - 3 +2.8 -4.1 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 28 144 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 59%     4 - 3 +2.9 +2.2 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 176 Texas Arlington W 83-63 66%     5 - 3 +15.9 +7.6 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 6 324 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90-78 75%     6 - 3 +5.3 +12.5 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 13 207 @Rice L 76-77 51%     6 - 4 -1.0 +4.1 -5.2
  Wed, Dec 17 241 @Texas St. W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Dec 20 202 @Southern Miss W 79-78 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 183 James Madison W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 142 Troy W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 241 Texas St. W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 180 @South Alabama L 74-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 @Troy L 76-80 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 237 @Georgia Southern W 85-84 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 335 @Georgia St. W 82-74 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 217 Old Dominion W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 160 Marshall W 82-79 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 245 @Coastal Carolina W 79-77 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 357 Louisiana Monroe W 89-71 95%    
  Sat, Feb 14 180 South Alabama W 77-72 67%    
  Thu, Feb 19 326 @Louisiana W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 86-74 85%    
  Tue, Feb 24 202 Southern Miss W 82-76 71%    
  Fri, Feb 27 326 Louisiana W 77-64 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.0 7.4 4.7 1.9 0.4 25.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.3 4.7 1.2 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.5 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 3.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 4.4 0.7 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.1 1.3 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.9 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.4 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.8 7.3 10.9 13.9 15.4 15.1 12.4 8.7 4.8 1.9 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.0
16-2 97.3% 4.7    4.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 85.9% 7.4    5.4 1.9 0.1
14-4 56.7% 7.0    3.1 3.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 23.1% 3.5    0.7 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.4% 25.4 15.7 6.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 53.1% 53.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.9% 49.9% 49.9% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9
16-2 4.8% 42.8% 42.8% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.7
15-3 8.7% 37.7% 37.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 5.4
14-4 12.4% 30.6% 30.6% 13.7 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.6
13-5 15.1% 22.5% 22.5% 14.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.9 0.0 11.7
12-6 15.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 13.4
11-7 13.9% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 12.8
10-8 10.9% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.5
9-9 7.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
8-10 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.4 7.1 3.3 0.2 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 1.7 45.0 41.7 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%