IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.2	#140
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.5	#53
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#151

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#138

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.0%	20.6%	12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.8	12.4	13.0

.500 or above	72.6%	84.9%	64.1%
.500 or above in Conference	84.2%	89.8%	80.3%
Conference Champion	22.1%	28.4%	17.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.6%	1.3%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	16.0%	20.5%	12.9%
Second Round	2.0%	3.0%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 3	17 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	145	@ Ohio	L	76-79	41%
Nov 07, 2025	212	@ Stephen F. Austin	W	71-70	54%
Nov 11, 2025	162	@ Missouri St.	L	68-69	46%
Nov 19, 2025	49	@ St. Mary's	L	59-72	13%
Nov 21, 2025	44	@ SMU	L	69-83	11%
Nov 24, 2025	153	Jacksonville St.	W	71-67	64%
Nov 28, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	76-69	74%
Dec 02, 2025	202	Texas Arlington	W	78-71	72%
Dec 06, 2025	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	71-72	49%
Dec 13, 2025	165	@ Rice	L	71-72	47%
Dec 17, 2025	193	@ Texas St.	W	72-71	51%
Dec 20, 2025	281	@ Southern Miss	W	79-74	66%
Jan 04, 2026	129	James Madison	W	73-71	58%
Jan 07, 2026	130	Troy	W	72-70	58%
Jan 10, 2026	193	Texas St.	W	75-69	71%
Jan 15, 2026	163	@ South Alabama	L	67-68	46%
Jan 17, 2026	130	@ Troy	L	69-73	38%
Jan 22, 2026	249	@ Georgia Southern	W	78-75	60%
Jan 24, 2026	284	@ Georgia St.	W	79-74	67%
Jan 28, 2026	200	Old Dominion	W	76-69	70%
Jan 31, 2026	187	Marshall	W	78-72	70%
Feb 04, 2026	275	@ Coastal Carolina	W	72-68	65%
Feb 11, 2026	348	Louisiana Monroe	W	81-65	91%
Feb 14, 2026	163	South Alabama	W	70-65	66%
Feb 19, 2026	234	@ Louisiana	W	73-71	58%
Feb 21, 2026	348	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	78-68	80%
Feb 24, 2026	281	Southern Miss	W	82-71	82%
Feb 27, 2026	234	Louisiana	W	76-68	75%
Projected Record						16 - 12	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.4	4.3	6.1	5.9	3.2	1.0		22.1	1st
2nd												0.2	1.9	5.0	5.6	2.7	0.6	0.0			16.0	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.6	5.0	4.4	1.3	0.2	0.0				12.7	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	4.3	4.0	1.2	0.0						10.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.1	3.9	1.0	0.1							8.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.9	3.6	1.3	0.1								6.9	6th
7th								0.0	1.0	3.1	1.7	0.1									5.9	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.5	1.8	0.2	0.0									5.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.2	1.4	2.0	0.5	0.0										4.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	0.0											2.9	10th
11th					0.1	0.4	1.0	0.5	0.1												2.1	11th
12th				0.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.6	12th
13th			0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.9	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0															0.5	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.5	2.6	4.0	6.2	7.8	9.7	11.5	12.2	12.1	11.3	8.9	6.5	3.2	1.0			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
17-1	99.6%	3.2		3.1	0.2
16-2	91.2%	5.9		4.7	1.1	0.1
15-3	68.2%	6.1		3.5	2.2	0.3	0.0
14-4	37.9%	4.3		1.5	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.6%	1.4		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	22.1%	22.1		14.1	6.0	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.0%		64.8%	63.2%	1.6%	10.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.4		4.4%
17-1	3.2%		53.3%	53.1%	0.3%	11.6						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0			1.5		0.5%
16-2	6.5%		42.8%	42.8%	0.1%	12.0										0.0	0.0	0.6	1.4	0.6	0.1			3.7		0.1%
15-3	8.9%		36.3%	36.3%		12.6											0.0	0.2	1.4	1.1	0.4	0.0	0.0	5.7
14-4	11.3%		26.9%	26.9%		13.0												0.1	0.9	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0	8.2
13-5	12.1%		19.2%	19.2%		13.4												0.0	0.3	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	9.8
12-6	12.2%		10.4%	10.4%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	10.9
11-7	11.5%		4.9%	4.9%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	11.0
10-8	9.7%		2.8%	2.8%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	9.4
9-9	7.8%		1.2%	1.2%		17.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7
8-10	6.2%		0.7%	0.7%		17.9														0.0		0.0	0.0	6.2
7-11	4.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
6-12	2.6%																							2.6
5-13	1.5%																							1.5
4-14	0.9%																							0.9
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.0%	16.0%	0.0%	12.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	2.0	5.1	4.7	2.8	0.9	0.3	84.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.0						2.3	95.3			2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%