Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #158
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Pace 78.1 #15
Improvement -2.2 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C- B D B- C+
Defense #210 C- B- D C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #183 1.16 #170 -0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #284 0.70 #281 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 46% #81 0.94 #281 +0.7 #150
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.7 #228
Freethrows 0.32 #117 76% #50 0.25 #78
Second Chance 36.0% #40 1.09 #115 0.39 #47
Turnovers 19.0% #328
Total Offense +1.1 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.26 #303 -1.5 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.80 #257 -0.9 #254
Three Pointers 41% #198 1.02 #182 +0.2 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.1 #254
Freethrows 0.33 #261 72% #168 0.23 #255
Second Chance 25.6% #30 1.10 #267 0.28 #93
Turnovers 13.7% #330
Total Defense -1.1 #210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #108 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #251 4.7% #271
Possession Length 15.1 #18 17.3 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #156 0.18 #206
Improvement -0.7 #226 -1.4 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.5% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 98.6% 99.7% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 99.2% 93.4%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.1% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.3% 17.5% 9.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 8
Quad 411 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 214 @Ohio W 89 - 85 51% -2  1 - 0 +4 +10 C A+ F -7 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 25% -16  1 - 1 -18 -6 F C- F+ -11 D+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 179 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 45% -7  2 - 1 +2 +3 D B+ D- -1 C- B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 43 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 9% -7  2 - 2 +2 +8 C A+ C -6 D+ D B+
 Fri, Nov 21 37 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  2 - 3 -14 -7 D A+ F -3 F A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 182 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 68% +7  3 - 3 +6 -4 C- D F +9 A+ B B
 Fri, Nov 28 136 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 56% -1  4 - 3 +3 +1 D B- A+ +1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 153 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 60% +10  5 - 3 +17 +10 B+ C- D +7 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 283 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 65% +8  6 - 3 +8 +13 C B+ B- -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 233 @Rice L 76 - 77 54% +7  6 - 4 -2 +2 C+ F+ C -4 C- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 271 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 62% +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +13 A- A+ F +2 C+ C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 264 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 61% +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +4 +18 F+ A+ A -14 F D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 193 James Madison L 74 - 78 69% +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -9 -5 D D C -5 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 120 Troy W 86 - 74 52% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +12 +6 B- B+ F +4 B- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 271 Texas St. W 83 - 82 81% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 -8 -1 F C F -8 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 188 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 46% -0  10 - 6 4 - 2 -3 +4 C- C+ F -6 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 120 @Troy L 74 - 99 30% -9  10 - 7 4 - 3 -19 +7 F+ A A- -27 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 250 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 58% +9  11 - 7 5 - 3 +15 +4 B+ F F+ +10 A+ F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 63% +3  11 - 8 5 - 4 -4 +12 B+ C F+ -16 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 223 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 74% -5  11 - 9 5 - 5 -11 -7 D+ D F -4 C C D-
 Sat, Jan 31 165 Marshall W 84 - 81 62%
 Wed, Feb 4 234 @Coastal Carolina W 78 - 77 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Bowling Green W 82 - 80 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 361 Louisiana Monroe W 92 - 73 96%
 Sat, Feb 14 188 South Alabama W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 310 @Louisiana W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 76 87%
 Tue, Feb 24 264 Southern Miss W 84 - 75 79%
 Fri, Feb 27 310 Louisiana W 78 - 66 86%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0 +1 C- B D -1 C- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 2.7 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 6.0 18.2 8.7 32.9 2nd
3rd 1.5 14.3 6.8 0.2 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 6.0 8.3 0.5 14.8 4th
5th 0.5 8.2 1.5 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 3.7 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.5 0.6 4.2 7th
8th 0.6 1.8 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 0.3 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 8.4 20.1 30.2 26.8 11.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 23.4% 2.7    0.5 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-6 4.9% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.5% 30.2% 30.2% 13.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 8.1
12-6 26.8% 20.5% 20.5% 13.7 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 21.3
11-7 30.2% 12.1% 12.1% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 26.5
10-8 20.1% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 18.9
9-9 8.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.1
8-10 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.8 85.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 12.9 0.2 21.3 63.9 14.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%