Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #306
Pace 67.6 #216
Improvement -0.6 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 D+ D+ C- D B
Defense #344 D+ D- D D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.07 #283 -3.8 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #346 0.53 #364 -5.0 #360
Three Pointers 55% #3 0.97 #244 +5.8 #29
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #275 -3.1 #273
Freethrows 0.26 #325 70% #251 0.18 #328
Second Chance 28.7% #236 0.92 #315 0.26 #282
Turnovers 17.7% #224
Total Offense -4.5 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.27 #318 -2.5 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #205 0.69 #65 +1.0 #113
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.10 #304 -2.1 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #293 -3.5 #293
Freethrows 0.34 #281 74% #289 0.25 #292
Second Chance 32.5% #262 1.19 #348 0.39 #332
Turnovers 14.1% #331
Total Defense -6.8 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #54 0.3% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #314 6.5% #301
Possession Length 18.2 #270 16.7 #82
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #326 0.20 #258
Improvement +0.0 #185 -0.6 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 14.9% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.7% 21.0% 52.8%
First Four1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 411 - 1111 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 123 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 7% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- D- B- -8 B F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -34 -9 D C D+ -20 F+ F+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 163 Harvard L 52 - 75 23% -9  0 - 3 -26 -17 F D+ F -11 F+ C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 178 @Cornell L 73 - 86 11% -6  0 - 4 -11 -14 F F B- +4 C B C+
 Fri, Nov 21 153 @Marist L 65 - 76 10% -4  0 - 5 -8 +2 B- F C+ -11 C- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 308 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 40% -10  0 - 6 -26 -7 D- F+ C -19 F D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 332 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 37% +2  1 - 6 -0 +8 D C+ A- -8 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 29 328 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 58% +3  2 - 6 -10 -6 C F F -5 B F D
 Tue, Dec 2 80 George Washington L 70 - 84 9% -5  2 - 7 -10 -1 B+ F B- -10 A- F C-
 Fri, Dec 12 257 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 20% +5  3 - 7 +1 -7 F F+ D +8 B- B F+
 Tue, Dec 23 361 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 78% +4  4 - 7 -9 +3 B+ C- D- -13 F+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 304 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 28% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +3 C- A- F+ -2 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 219 Colgate L 69 - 76 31% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A- B -17 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 316 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 54% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -20 -7 F D+ A+ -13 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 289 @Boston University L 91 - 100 25% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +14 C+ C+ B -28 F D- D
 Wed, Jan 14 326 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 35% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +1 D+ D C+ -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 253 American L 67 - 78 38% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -19 -1 C D+ B -19 F+ F A
 Wed, Jan 21 313 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 31% +2  6 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +12 B C- C -15 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 174 @Navy L 56 - 84 11% -12  6 - 13 2 - 6 -26 -7 C F D -22 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 28 304 Lehigh W 67 - 64 50% +3  7 - 13 3 - 6 -8 -8 D+ D- C- -1 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 326 Holy Cross W 69 - 68 58% +1  8 - 13 4 - 6 -12 -8 F A+ F -4 A- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 219 @Colgate L 55 - 69 15% -8  8 - 14 4 - 7 -14 -14 F D- F -2 C D A-
 Sat, Feb 7 315 Lafayette W 73 - 72 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 289 Boston University L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 253 @American L 68 - 77 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 316 @Loyola Maryland L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 Navy L 66 - 73 25%
 Wed, Feb 25 313 Bucknell W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 315 @Lafayette L 70 - 75 31%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -11 -5 D+ D+ C- -7 D+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.6 6.8 1.9 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 5.1 6.5 0.2 11.9 6th
7th 1.0 10.8 1.5 13.3 7th
8th 0.2 8.0 7.7 0.1 16.0 8th
9th 0.7 6.7 14.8 1.3 23.5 9th
10th 4.1 9.7 3.3 0.0 17.1 10th
Total 4.8 16.6 27.2 25.5 16.9 7.3 1.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 1.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
9-9 7.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 7.0
8-10 16.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 16.4
7-11 25.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 25.3
6-12 27.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 26.9
5-13 16.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.5
4-14 4.8% 4.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%