Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#209
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#114
Pace67.5#235
Improvement-4.1#355

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#139
First Shot+2.1#118
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#247
Layup/Dunks-4.4#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#119
Freethrows+4.8#8
Improvement-2.6#347

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#317
First Shot-5.0#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#130
Layups/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#308
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement-1.5#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 84.4% 92.7% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.3% 56.6% 30.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.8% 7.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 202 Southern Miss W 85-79 60%     1 - 0 +0.3 +14.3 -13.6
  Fri, Nov 7 264 Green Bay W 83-76 70%     2 - 0 -1.7 +11.8 -12.9
  Tue, Nov 11 109 @DePaul W 66-53 18%     3 - 0 +19.6 +0.4 +19.6
  Tue, Nov 18 175 Vermont W 94-90 53%     4 - 0 -0.1 +12.6 -12.8
  Mon, Nov 24 331 VMI W 78-70 76%     5 - 0 -2.4 +2.9 -4.9
  Wed, Nov 26 305 Bucknell W 73-71 67%     6 - 0 -5.8 +8.9 -14.4
  Sat, Nov 29 342 @Canisius W 71-53 68%     7 - 0 +9.8 +3.1 +8.3
  Sat, Dec 6 111 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 36%     7 - 1 -7.5 -0.2 -7.6
  Tue, Dec 9 285 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 52%     8 - 1 +0.4 +12.3 -11.7
  Sun, Dec 14 255 @East Carolina L 70-73 47%     8 - 2 -5.3 -0.1 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 20 249 @Western Michigan L 76-77 46%    
  Tue, Dec 30 323 @Northern Illinois W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Jan 3 307 Ball St. W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 177 @Ohio L 77-82 32%    
  Tue, Jan 13 132 Kent St. L 82-84 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 @Miami (OH) L 73-84 16%    
  Tue, Jan 20 66 Akron L 80-89 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 154 Massachusetts L 78-79 48%    
  Tue, Jan 27 125 @Bowling Green L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 Ohio W 80-79 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 103 Miami (OH) L 76-81 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 307 @Ball St. W 72-70 58%    
  Tue, Feb 17 323 Northern Illinois W 82-72 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 154 @Massachusetts L 75-82 28%    
  Tue, Feb 24 66 @Akron L 77-92 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 326 Central Michigan W 80-70 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 224 Eastern Michigan W 75-71 63%    
  Fri, Mar 6 167 @Toledo L 77-82 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.7 2.1 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.8 3.7 0.3 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 6.0 4.8 0.7 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.2 5.9 1.2 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.8 2.0 0.1 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.8 2.0 0.2 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.5 8.1 11.9 14.4 15.9 14.2 11.5 8.0 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 65.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 14.4% 14.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 8.6% 8.6% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.5% 7.6% 7.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4
11-7 8.0% 3.8% 3.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-8 11.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.2
9-9 14.2% 2.0% 2.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.9
8-10 15.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.8
7-11 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 14.4
6-12 11.9% 11.9
5-13 8.1% 8.1
4-14 4.5% 4.5
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 98.4 0.0%