Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#71
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#74
Pace60.7#359
Improvement+0.2#167

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#24
First Shot+8.6#16
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-0.8#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.3#2
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-1.1#267

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#48
Layups/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#313
Freethrows+3.0#32
Improvement+1.3#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 24.4% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.9% 11.8% 3.7%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 10.7
.500 or above 96.9% 99.2% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 93.7% 80.0%
Conference Champion 12.6% 24.1% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.2% 5.3% 2.4%
First Round13.4% 21.5% 10.3%
Second Round4.3% 7.9% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 25 - 46 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 176 Incarnate Word W 98-64 87%     1 - 0 +30.0 +26.9 +5.3
  Sun, Nov 9 237 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 91%     2 - 0 +15.9 +26.0 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 250 Cal Poly W 93-79 92%     3 - 0 +5.9 +9.8 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 16 288 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 86%     4 - 0 +9.1 +16.9 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 312 Denver L 81-83 96%     4 - 1 -13.9 +9.9 -24.2
  Wed, Nov 26 63 Virginia Tech L 64-66 47%     4 - 2 +6.7 +2.7 +3.8
  Thu, Nov 27 100 Wichita St. W 76-70 62%     5 - 2 +10.9 +20.8 -8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 86 South Florida W 83-68 56%     6 - 2 +21.5 +14.6 +7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 62 Colorado W 91-86 58%     7 - 2 +10.8 +22.1 -11.1
  Tue, Dec 9 246 Dartmouth W 76-55 92%     8 - 2 +13.3 +8.4 +7.2
  Sat, Dec 20 46 @Utah St. L 71-77 28%    
  Tue, Dec 30 98 Nevada W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 92 @Grand Canyon L 71-72 46%    
  Tue, Jan 6 72 New Mexico W 77-74 60%    
  Fri, Jan 9 141 UNLV W 82-72 81%    
  Tue, Jan 13 184 @Fresno St. W 78-71 73%    
  Fri, Jan 16 47 @Boise St. L 67-73 28%    
  Tue, Jan 20 324 Air Force W 78-57 97%    
  Fri, Jan 23 46 Utah St. L 74-75 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 51 @San Diego St. L 72-77 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 91 @Wyoming L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 190 San Jose St. W 78-65 87%    
  Tue, Feb 10 324 @Air Force W 75-60 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 91 Wyoming W 77-72 68%    
  Wed, Feb 18 141 @UNLV W 79-75 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 San Diego St. W 75-74 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 184 Fresno St. W 81-68 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 190 @San Jose St. W 75-68 73%    
  Wed, Mar 4 72 @New Mexico L 74-77 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 47 Boise St. L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.9 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 12.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.9 1.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.2 1.1 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.8 4.5 7.1 10.5 13.0 14.1 13.5 12.4 9.5 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 96.5% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 89.7% 2.9    2.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 66.2% 3.9    2.1 1.6 0.2
15-5 33.6% 3.2    1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.1 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 95.1% 40.8% 54.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.8%
18-2 1.3% 81.6% 37.6% 44.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 70.5%
17-3 3.2% 66.0% 28.9% 37.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.1 52.2%
16-4 5.9% 44.7% 21.5% 23.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.0 3.3 29.6%
15-5 9.5% 30.2% 19.1% 11.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.1 6.6 13.7%
14-6 12.4% 19.5% 14.5% 5.0% 10.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.2 10.0 5.9%
13-7 13.5% 12.1% 10.5% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.2 11.9 1.8%
12-8 14.1% 7.4% 6.8% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 13.1 0.6%
11-9 13.0% 4.7% 4.5% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.4 0.2%
10-10 10.5% 3.0% 3.0% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.2
9-11 7.1% 1.9% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
8-12 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
7-13 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.2% 9.9% 5.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.0 8.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.8 5.9%