Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#14
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#49
Pace74.6#52
Improvement-1.5#281

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#21
First Shot+4.4#64
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#26
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#24
Freethrows-0.8#228
Improvement-1.7#305

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#18
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#76
Layups/Dunks+5.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#20
Freethrows+3.1#25
Improvement+0.2#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 5.1% 6.5% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 13.4% 16.2% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 35.9% 41.6% 22.2%
Top 6 Seed 57.7% 64.0% 42.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.0% 90.2% 76.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 88.6% 73.9%
Average Seed 5.4 5.1 6.2
.500 or above 94.0% 96.4% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 87.0% 67.1%
Conference Champion 12.9% 16.1% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four3.6% 2.9% 5.2%
First Round84.4% 88.8% 73.7%
Second Round64.1% 69.1% 52.0%
Sweet Sixteen35.2% 39.3% 25.2%
Elite Eight16.8% 19.1% 11.3%
Final Four7.9% 9.0% 5.2%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.2%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 1.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +33.3 +17.4 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 98%     2 - 0 +22.9 +17.1 +6.6
  Nov 13, 2024 144   Oakland W 66-54 94%     3 - 0 +10.0 -5.9 +16.1
  Nov 20, 2024 5   Alabama L 87-100 38%     3 - 1 +5.5 +8.1 -0.8
  Nov 23, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99%     4 - 1 +29.8 +2.7 +25.4
  Nov 25, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 97%     5 - 1 +51.1 +20.0 +32.4
  Nov 28, 2024 33   Arkansas W 90-77 60%     6 - 1 +25.7 +21.6 +3.7
  Dec 06, 2024 66   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 63%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.0 -3.8 +12.0
  Dec 10, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 80-74 71%    
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Tennessee L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 22, 2024 63   Missouri W 82-76 72%    
  Dec 29, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 93-60 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 05, 2025 75   @ Washington W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 31   Penn St. W 82-77 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 106   USC W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 14, 2025 39   @ Indiana W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 19, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 23, 2025 19   Maryland W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 66   Northwestern W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 30, 2025 44   @ Nebraska W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 02, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 58   @ Rutgers W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 11, 2025 18   UCLA W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   Duke L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 50   Iowa W 86-78 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 07, 2025 21   Purdue W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 12.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.1 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.2 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.5 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.3 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.4 10.5 12.3 13.7 13.2 11.4 9.4 6.1 3.2 1.1 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 99.0% 1.0    1.0 0.1
17-3 88.9% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 67.8% 4.2    2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 36.4% 3.4    1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.6% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 7.1 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.1% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.4% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 0.8 2.5 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.4% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.9 0.3 1.3 3.0 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.2% 99.8% 13.3% 86.5% 4.8 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.2 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.7% 99.5% 8.6% 91.0% 5.9 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.0 3.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-9 12.3% 96.6% 5.9% 90.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.4%
10-10 10.5% 89.2% 4.1% 85.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.0 1.1 88.8%
9-11 7.4% 64.0% 2.5% 61.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.2 2.7 63.1%
8-12 5.1% 29.7% 0.7% 29.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 3.6 29.2%
7-13 3.2% 6.4% 0.4% 6.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 6.0%
6-14 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.5%
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 86.0% 12.2% 73.9% 5.4 5.1 8.2 11.0 11.5 11.6 10.3 8.9 6.9 4.9 3.7 3.6 0.4 14.0 84.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0