Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.8#4
Expected Predictive Rating+24.7#7
Pace69.9#172
Improvement-2.4#315

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#9
First Shot+6.5#35
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#11
Layup/Dunks+4.8#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#38
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement-0.8#243

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#4
First Shot+9.2#8
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#54
Layups/Dunks+3.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+3.7#11
Improvement-1.6#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.5% 8.6% 3.5%
#1 Seed 37.5% 37.8% 20.1%
Top 2 Seed 71.9% 72.3% 46.6%
Top 4 Seed 95.8% 95.9% 86.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.5% 99.6% 96.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 98.2%
Conference Champion 63.4% 63.8% 36.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.4% 97.5% 94.5%
Sweet Sixteen75.1% 75.2% 66.4%
Elite Eight48.8% 49.0% 40.2%
Final Four28.1% 28.3% 17.7%
Championship Game15.2% 15.3% 8.6%
National Champion7.5% 7.5% 4.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 113 - 5
Quad 26 - 119 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 41 Texas W 75-60 82%     1 - 0 +27.3 +10.3 +17.8
  Sat, Nov 8 302 Western Carolina W 95-54 99%     2 - 0 +30.5 +9.7 +17.3
  Tue, Nov 11 332 @Army W 114-59 99%     3 - 0 +47.6 +27.7 +14.9
  Fri, Nov 14 195 Indiana St. W 100-62 99%     4 - 0 +32.8 +17.7 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 17 Kansas W 78-66 68%     5 - 0 +29.1 +20.7 +9.1
  Fri, Nov 21 353 Niagara W 100-42 99.7%    6 - 0 +41.8 +28.6 +17.9
  Sun, Nov 23 263 Howard W 93-56 99%     7 - 0 +28.4 +17.3 +10.8
  Thu, Nov 27 24 Arkansas W 80-71 74%     8 - 0 +24.3 +12.6 +11.6
  Tue, Dec 2 13 Florida W 67-66 75%     9 - 0 +15.7 +7.3 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 14 @Michigan St. W 66-60 55%     10 - 0 +26.6 +11.3 +15.8
  Tue, Dec 16 143 Lipscomb W 97-73 98%     11 - 0 +22.2 +9.9 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 20 23 Texas Tech L 81-82 74%     11 - 1 +14.3 +12.6 +1.7
  Wed, Dec 31 126 Georgia Tech W 86-63 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 120 @Florida St. W 88-72 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 11 @Louisville W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 42 SMU W 84-71 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 71 @California W 80-69 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 83 @Stanford W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 50 Wake Forest W 83-68 91%    
  Mon, Jan 26 11 Louisville W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 72 @Virginia Tech W 81-70 85%    
  Tue, Feb 3 152 Boston College W 82-58 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 22 @North Carolina W 76-72 62%    
  Tue, Feb 10 102 @Pittsburgh W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 40 Clemson W 77-64 87%    
  Mon, Feb 16 77 Syracuse W 83-66 94%    
  Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 76-81 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 57 @Notre Dame W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 27 Virginia W 81-70 83%    
  Mon, Mar 2 28 @North Carolina St. W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 22 North Carolina W 79-69 81%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.6 14.9 20.6 15.6 6.0 63.4 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 7.4 5.5 1.2 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.5 0.4 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.6 10.0 15.8 20.9 21.8 15.6 6.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.0    6.0 0.0
17-1 99.7% 15.6    15.0 0.6 0.0
16-2 94.5% 20.6    16.8 3.6 0.2
15-3 71.6% 14.9    7.9 5.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 35.3% 5.6    1.3 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 6.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 63.4% 63.4 47.1 12.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.0% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.2 4.9 1.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 15.6% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.3 11.1 4.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 21.8% 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 1.5 11.5 8.9 1.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 20.9% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 1.9 7.1 10.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.8% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 2.4 2.3 6.9 5.1 1.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 10.0% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 2.9 0.5 2.6 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.6% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 3.7 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.7% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 4.4 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.1% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.4% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 43.5% 56.5% 2.1 37.5 34.4 16.6 7.2 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 85.8 14.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 13.3