Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #235
Pace 74.7 #38
Improvement -2.0 #265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 D+ C B- B- B
Defense #306 D+ D- B- D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.01 #338 -2.7 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #326 0.97 #11 -1.6 #266
Three Pointers 48% #42 0.89 #328 +0.6 #157
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #299 -3.7 #299
Freethrows 0.35 #59 72% #199 0.25 #85
Second Chance 27.5% #263 1.12 #64 0.31 #188
Turnovers 15.4% #87
Total Offense -1.4 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.20 #244 -4.1 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.85 #320 +1.3 #96
Three Pointers 41% #189 1.03 #216 -0.2 #191
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.0 #282
Freethrows 0.36 #323 75% #310 0.27 #330
Second Chance 36.3% #347 1.06 #249 0.39 #334
Turnovers 18.8% #76
Total Defense -4.4 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #56 2.1% #348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #326 3.9% #255
Possession Length 16.2 #75 16.8 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.20 #266
Improvement -1.7 #279 -0.3 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.5
.500 or above 35.6% 56.4% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 51.7% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 72 - 8
Quad 412 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 255 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 36% -2  0 - 1 -5 +6 C B+ C -10 D+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 216 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 51% -1  1 - 1 -3 +5 C F+ A+ -9 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 237 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 34% +3  2 - 1 -0 +17 A+ D B- -18 D F C
 Tue, Nov 18 121 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 15% +1  2 - 2 +4 -7 F+ B D- +11 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 100 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 10% -14  2 - 3 -18 -9 D- F C -5 C- C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 208 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 38% -4  2 - 4 -9 -11 F F C +2 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 347 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 73% +1  2 - 5 -25 -17 F C- C -7 B- D F
 Sat, Nov 29 302 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 70% +6  3 - 5 +7 +4 C C A+ +4 B- C A
 Wed, Dec 3 221 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 51% +4  4 - 5 +2 +8 B+ B- C+ -5 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 82% +3  5 - 5 -11 +2 D D A- -14 F D C-
 Sat, Dec 13 321 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 54% +9  6 - 5 -1 +11 C- A B- -12 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 273 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 64% +8  7 - 5 1 - 0 +14 +18 D A A+ -3 F B+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 220 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 51% -3  8 - 5 2 - 0 -2 +8 D+ D+ A -10 B- F C
 Thu, Jan 1 235 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 33% +3  9 - 5 3 - 0 -0 +3 D B C -4 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 253 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 36% +13  10 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +7 C+ C+ B- -3 B+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 26% -9  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -2 F+ D A -12 F B A
 Thu, Jan 15 253 Old Dominion W 87 - 84 59% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 -5 +9 A C- C -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 235 Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 OT 56% +2  11 - 7 5 - 2 -11 -4 F C+ A+ -7 B C- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 147 Arkansas St. L 68 - 85 36% -9  11 - 8 5 - 3 -19 -10 F A C -8 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 124 Troy L 78 - 83 31% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 -6 +12 C+ A+ A -18 D+ F A-
 Fri, Jan 30 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 76 70% +2  12 - 9 6 - 4 -8 -3 F D+ D -5 D- D B
 Sat, Jan 31 288 @Louisiana L 60 - 69 44% -6  12 - 10 6 - 5 -13 -6 F C- F -9 F D+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 244 Texas St. L 71 - 77 57% -3  12 - 11 6 - 6 -14 -3 C- D- A- -11 B- F C-
 Wed, Feb 11 175 Appalachian St. L 70 - 72 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Marshall L 80 - 82 40%
 Thu, Feb 19 273 @Georgia St. L 77 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 @Appalachian St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 220 @James Madison L 75 - 81 29%
 Fri, Feb 27 163 @Marshall L 77 - 85 21%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -6 -1 D+ C B- -4 D+ D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 0.7 2.7 4th
5th 0.9 3.5 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 5.0 2.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 1.2 8.8 0.4 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 7.3 4.7 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 1.1 13.1 0.8 15.1 9th
10th 0.1 6.6 8.2 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 1.3 11.6 1.4 14.3 11th
12th 5.5 6.6 0.1 12.1 12th
13th 3.9 0.8 4.7 13th
14th 14th
Total 10.7 26.8 31.4 20.3 8.7 1.9 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 20.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 16.0% 16.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
10-8 8.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
9-9 20.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 20.2
8-10 31.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 31.2
7-11 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 26.8
6-12 10.7% 10.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.7%