IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+22.1	#5
Expected Predictive Rating	+23.7	#7

Pace	66.4	#242
Improvement	+2.7	#74

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#1	A-	A+	A-	B-	B-
Defense	#19	A	A-	F+	A+	A+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#271	1.34	#28	+1.3	#131
2 Pt. Jumpers	13%	#329	0.93	#16	-1.9	#279
Three Pointers	52%	#17	1.10	#65	+7.8	#12
1st FG Attempt			1.16	#23	+7.1	#23
Freethrows	0.32	#148	80%	#5	0.25	#72
Second Chance	41.9%	#3	1.23	#12	0.52	#2
Turnovers					13.3%	#16
Total Offense					+14.0	#1

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	26%	#362	0.99	#21	+9.6	#2
2 Pt. Jumpers	32%	#4	0.65	#24	-2.6	#346
Three Pointers	42%	#132	0.92	#61	+1.3	#127
1st FG Attempt			0.86	#5	+8.2	#5
Freethrows	0.16	#1	69%	#40	0.11	#1
Second Chance	23.6%	#11	0.90	#37	0.21	#9
Turnovers					12.9%	#352
Total Defense					+8.1	#19

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.6%	#72	-4.7%	#2
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	12.2%	#29	-12.0%	#19
Possession Length	17.5	#204	18.2	#312
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.13	#289	0.13	#44
Improvement	+2.3	#67	+0.4	#160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	5.4%	7.7%	3.2%
#1 Seed	36.4%	44.1%	29.1%
Top 2 Seed	81.6%	88.3%	75.2%
Top 4 Seed	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	1.9	1.7	2.0

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	57.2%	69.7%	45.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	98.9%	99.0%	98.8%
Sweet Sixteen	75.8%	77.3%	74.4%
Elite Eight	48.7%	51.8%	45.8%
Final Four	26.6%	28.7%	24.5%
Championship Game	13.9%	15.2%	12.6%
National Champion	7.1%	8.0%	6.1%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

2 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	7 - 4	7 - 4
Quad 1b	4 - 1	11 - 5
Quad 2	6 - 0	17 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 0	21 - 6
Quad 4	7 - 0	27 - 6

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	341 Jackson St.	W	113 - 55	100%	+33	1 - 0		+43	+24	A+	A+	C	+15	A-	A+	F+
Fri, Nov 7	224 Florida Gulf Coast	W	113 - 70	99%	+31	2 - 0		+36	+29	A+	A+	A+	+5	A+	A+	F
Tue, Nov 11	19 Texas Tech	W	81 - 77	77%	+4	3 - 0		+19	+12	B+	A+	C-	+7	C+	A+	B+
Fri, Nov 14	219 Colgate	W	84 - 65	99%	+11	4 - 0		+13	+11	F+	A+	A+	+2	A-	A-	F
Wed, Nov 19	20 Alabama	L	86 - 90	68%	-1	4 - 1		+13	+8	A-	A	C	+5	B-	C	C+
Sat, Nov 22	204 LIU Brooklyn	W	98 - 58	99%	+26	5 - 1		+34	+22	A+	A+	C+	+12	B	A+	B+
Mon, Nov 24	179 UT Rio Grande Valley	W	87 - 73	98%	+8	6 - 1		+10	+13	A-	B-	B-	-3	B+	C	F
Fri, Nov 28	8 Connecticut	L	61 - 74	52%	-10	6 - 2		+8	+3	D+	C-	A	+5	B	A+	C-
Sat, Dec 6	15 Tennessee	W	75 - 62	66%	+4	7 - 2		+31	+22	A+	A+	A+	+11	A+	C-	B
Tue, Dec 9	36 @Ohio St.	W	88 - 80	69%	+4	8 - 2	1 - 0	+25	+21	A+	D+	A	+4	A	C+	F
Sat, Dec 13	13 Nebraska	L	80 - 83	73%	-6	8 - 3	1 - 1	+13	+24	A	A+	A+	-12	C	C	D-
Mon, Dec 22	53 Missouri	W	91 - 48	87%	+17	9 - 3		+53	+33	B+	A+	C+	+26	A+	A+	D
Mon, Dec 29	266 Southern	W	90 - 55	99%	+20	10 - 3		+26	+21	A+	A+	D	+8	A+	C	F
Sat, Jan 3	114 @Penn St.	W	73 - 65	92%	+10	11 - 3	2 - 1	+14	+3	F	C-	A	+12	A+	B-	D-
Thu, Jan 8	118 Rutgers	W	81 - 55	97%	+17	12 - 3	3 - 1	+26	+14	A+	F	A+	+14	A	A+	F+
Sun, Jan 11	21 @Iowa	W	75 - 69	57%	+10	13 - 3	4 - 1	+26	+16	A-	C	A	+11	A+	A+	D-
Wed, Jan 14	67 @Northwestern	W	79 - 68	84%	+5	14 - 3	5 - 1	+22	+25	A	A+	A-	-1	A+	F	C
Sat, Jan 17	66 Minnesota	W	77 - 67	93%	+2	15 - 3	6 - 1	+15	+17	B+	A+	B	-1	A-	F+	F+
Wed, Jan 21	116 Maryland	W	89 - 70	97%	+12	16 - 3	7 - 1	+19	+19	C+	A+	A+	+0	B	B	F
Sat, Jan 24	9 @Purdue	W	88 - 82	43%	-3	17 - 3	8 - 1	+30	+33	A+	A+	B	-2	D+	A+	F
Thu, Jan 29	45 Washington	W	75 - 66	89%	+5	18 - 3	9 - 1	+18	+16	C-	A+	A+	+3	D+	A+	C+
Sun, Feb 1	13 @Nebraska	W	78 - 69	52%	+2	19 - 3	10 - 1	+31	+24	A	B+	A+	+7	B+	B+	C
Wed, Feb 4	67 Northwestern	W	84 - 44	93%	+26	20 - 3	11 - 1	+45	+22	A+	A+	C+	+28	A+	A+	F
Sat, Feb 7	10 @Michigan St.	L	72 - 73	49%
Tue, Feb 10	38 Wisconsin	W	85 - 74	86%
Sun, Feb 15	34 Indiana	W	83 - 72	85%
Wed, Feb 18	46 @USC	W	81 - 73	76%
Sat, Feb 21	33 @UCLA	W	76 - 71	67%
Fri, Feb 27	1 Michigan	L	80 - 81	51%
Tue, Mar 3	83 Oregon	W	83 - 65	96%
Sun, Mar 8	116 @Maryland	W	84 - 68	93%
Totals						26 - 5	17 - 3	+22	+14	A-	A+	A-	+8	A	A-	F+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																0.1	3.4	18.2	25.6	9.9		57.2	1st
2nd															0.1	2.7	12.7	13.0	2.0			30.4	2nd
3rd														0.0	0.6	4.0	4.3	0.7				9.6	3rd
4th														0.0	1.0	1.0	0.1					2.1	4th
5th														0.1	0.3	0.0						0.5	5th
6th													0.0	0.2	0.0							0.2	6th
7th													0.0	0.0								0.0	7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																							16th
17th																							17th
18th																							18th

Total													0.0	0.4	2.0	7.8	20.5	31.9	27.6	9.9			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	9.9	9.9
18-2	92.9%	25.6	18.6	6.7	0.4
17-3	57.0%	18.2	6.5	9.2	2.4	0.0
16-4	16.8%	3.4	0.3	1.4	1.4	0.3	0.0
15-5	1.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9
10-10

Total	57.2%	57.2	35.3	17.3	4.2	0.4	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	9.9%	100.0%	31.3%	68.7%	1.4	6.6	3.2	0.2															100.0%
18-2	27.6%	100.0%	24.8%	75.2%	1.6	13.8	11.9	1.9	0.1														100.0%
17-3	31.9%	100.0%	20.5%	79.5%	1.8	10.5	16.5	4.6	0.3														100.0%
16-4	20.5%	100.0%	17.0%	83.0%	2.1	4.4	10.1	5.1	0.8	0.0													100.0%
15-5	7.8%	100.0%	15.3%	84.7%	2.5	1.0	3.1	2.8	0.9	0.0													100.0%
14-6	2.0%	100.0%	11.9%	88.1%	2.9	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.0	0.0												100.0%
13-7	0.4%	100.0%	2.8%	97.2%	3.8		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1													100.0%
12-8	0.0%							0.0	0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	21.4%	78.6%	1.9																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3
Win Out	3.1%	100.0%	1.2	82.5	17.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	2.3%	100.0%	1.4	60.7	36.8	2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	2.4%	100.0%	1.4	61.2	37.2	1.7