Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#24
Pace71.0#139
Improvement-1.2#267

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#4
First Shot+9.2#12
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#42
Layup/Dunks+2.3#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#42
Freethrows+1.9#82
Improvement+1.6#70

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#34
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#103
Layups/Dunks+7.0#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows+4.0#9
Improvement-2.8#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.1% 5.0% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 13.6% 15.7% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 47.3% 52.2% 32.8%
Top 6 Seed 76.5% 80.8% 64.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 98.3% 94.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.1% 98.2% 93.9%
Average Seed 4.8 4.6 5.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.1% 92.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.0% 2.9%
First Round96.6% 97.9% 92.9%
Second Round80.0% 82.5% 72.9%
Sweet Sixteen45.4% 48.1% 37.3%
Elite Eight21.0% 22.7% 16.2%
Final Four9.6% 10.4% 7.0%
Championship Game4.0% 4.4% 2.7%
National Champion1.7% 1.9% 1.2%

Next Game: Missouri (Neutral) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 317 Jackson St. W 113-55 99%     1 - 0 +45.9 +28.7 +12.9
  Fri, Nov 7 184 Florida Gulf Coast W 113-70 97%     2 - 0 +38.4 +29.0 +6.5
  Tue, Nov 11 27 Texas Tech W 81-77 73%     3 - 0 +15.7 +9.3 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 14 178 Colgate W 84-65 97%     4 - 0 +14.7 +12.2 +3.4
  Wed, Nov 19 16 Alabama L 86-90 52%     4 - 1 +13.4 +8.2 +5.7
  Sat, Nov 22 201 LIU Brooklyn W 98-58 98%     5 - 1 +34.4 +20.3 +13.4
  Mon, Nov 24 190 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-73 97%     6 - 1 +9.0 +12.7 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 28 6 Connecticut L 61-74 38%     6 - 2 +8.1 +2.6 +4.8
  Sat, Dec 6 15 Tennessee W 75-62 52%     7 - 2 +30.5 +21.7 +10.6
  Tue, Dec 9 31 @Ohio St. W 88-80 55%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +24.7 +22.6 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 24 Nebraska L 80-83 71%     8 - 3 1 - 1 +9.1 +20.9 -12.1
  Mon, Dec 22 49 Missouri W 84-77 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 203 Southern W 93-69 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 105 Penn St. W 88-74 90%    
  Thu, Jan 8 130 Rutgers W 85-66 96%    
  Sun, Jan 11 22 @Iowa L 73-74 48%    
  Wed, Jan 14 59 @Northwestern W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 96 Minnesota W 81-65 93%    
  Wed, Jan 21 95 Maryland W 86-71 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 7 @Purdue L 74-80 30%    
  Thu, Jan 29 48 Washington W 84-74 82%    
  Sun, Feb 1 24 @Nebraska L 78-79 50%    
  Wed, Feb 4 59 Northwestern W 85-73 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 11 @Michigan St. L 73-76 38%    
  Tue, Feb 10 43 Wisconsin W 85-76 79%    
  Sun, Feb 15 26 Indiana W 81-75 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 36 @USC W 82-80 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 30 @UCLA W 76-75 53%    
  Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 78-84 29%    
  Tue, Mar 3 62 Oregon W 84-72 87%    
  Sun, Mar 8 95 @Maryland W 83-74 80%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 5.5 2.7 0.4 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.2 7.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.6 6.8 2.4 0.2 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.5 2.5 0.2 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.2 0.3 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.8 9.7 14.4 17.0 17.3 14.5 9.8 4.8 1.6 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
18-2 77.1% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
17-3 38.9% 1.9    0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 13.6% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.8% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.0 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.8% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.7 1.1 3.1 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.5% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 3.4 0.5 2.4 5.4 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 17.3% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 4.2 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.2 4.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 17.0% 99.9% 4.7% 95.2% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 5.5 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 14.4% 99.5% 3.0% 96.5% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 4.3 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-9 9.7% 98.2% 1.6% 96.7% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.2%
10-10 5.8% 92.7% 2.2% 90.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 92.5%
9-11 2.8% 76.0% 1.0% 75.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.7 75.8%
8-12 1.3% 40.1% 1.0% 39.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8 39.5%
7-13 0.5% 12.6% 12.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 12.6%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.3% 7.1% 90.2% 4.8 4.1 9.4 15.7 18.0 16.5 12.7 8.9 5.4 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 2.7 97.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 96.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 65.2 34.8