James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #212
Pace 64.7 #289
Improvement +1.7 #113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 C C C C- C+
Defense #276 C C F D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.14 #186 -1.1 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.65 #325 -2.3 #293
Three Pointers 46% #75 1.05 #126 +3.4 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.0 #177
Freethrows 0.30 #214 70% #249 0.21 #228
Second Chance 28.5% #248 1.08 #101 0.31 #187
Turnovers 17.3% #195
Total Offense +0.5 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #149 1.10 #99 +0.4 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #260 0.71 #98 +1.4 #79
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.06 #240 -1.5 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.4 #166
Freethrows 0.37 #325 73% #210 0.26 #326
Second Chance 30.6% #183 1.01 #160 0.31 #168
Turnovers 12.3% #360
Total Defense -3.2 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #141 0.9% #249
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.8% #183 -1.6% #151
Possession Length 18.3 #280 17.1 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #257 0.16 #141
Improvement -1.0 #236 +2.7 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.8
.500 or above 54.9% 60.9% 32.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.6% 56.4% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 2.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 616 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Akron L 71 - 85 9% -0  0 - 1 -2 -0 C D- F -1 A+ D+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 96% +13  1 - 1 -10 -0 C F C -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 266 @Longwood L 72 - 82 51% -8  1 - 2 -13 -1 D+ D B -12 B B F
 Sat, Nov 15 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 37% -10  1 - 3 -8 +1 B- D+ D+ -9 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 154 Towson W 81 - 75 51% +3  2 - 3 +3 +20 A+ F A+ -16 C- D- F
 Mon, Nov 24 188 @Florida International W 80 - 72 36% -1  3 - 3 +9 +11 F A+ A+ -2 B A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 240 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 57% +13  4 - 3 +6 +20 A+ A+ C+ -13 F D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 82 @George Mason L 66 - 82 13% -1  4 - 4 -6 +1 D- B- A+ -8 F+ A C-
 Wed, Dec 3 341 NC Central W 67 - 62 87% +4  5 - 4 -10 -6 F D- B -3 B D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 307 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 80% +4  6 - 4 -11 -3 F C+ A -7 F C- B+
 Wed, Dec 17 243 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 46% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -11 -2 C D- D- -9 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 260 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 50% +3  6 - 6 0 - 2 -7 +6 D- A- C+ -12 C B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 23 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 3% -17  6 - 7 -10 +8 A- C- D -17 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 168 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 31% -2  7 - 7 1 - 2 +6 +4 A- D F +2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 153 Marshall L 64 - 66 51% -8  7 - 8 1 - 3 -5 -2 D- B- C- -3 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 243 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 69% -9  8 - 8 2 - 3 -7 -5 B- F+ F -2 B+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 173 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 32% -11  8 - 9 2 - 4 -13 +8 D- C+ A- -24 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 153 @Marshall L 72 - 77 29% +0  8 - 10 2 - 5 -2 +2 C- A- D- -4 B+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 196 South Alabama L 83 - 90 60% -2  8 - 11 2 - 6 -12 +3 B+ C- F -15 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 259 Texas St. W 82 - 57 71% +17  9 - 11 3 - 6 +16 +16 A B+ C+ +3 A- A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 141 @Troy W 73 - 64 25% +1  10 - 11 4 - 6 +13 +6 B+ C D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 251 @Southern Miss L 65 - 73 48% -5  10 - 12 4 - 7 -10 -4 F B- C+ -7 C C+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 302 Louisiana W 71 - 63 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Toledo W 78 - 77 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 269 Georgia St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 173 Appalachian St. W 67 - 66 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 238 @Coastal Carolina L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Georgia St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 260 Georgia Southern W 81 - 75 72%
 Fri, Feb 27 238 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 69 67%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 10 -3 +1 C C C -3 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.9 1.7 5.6 4th
5th 1.0 7.5 0.4 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 5.6 4.3 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.5 11.5 0.5 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 4.0 7.5 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.4 9.8 1.8 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.6 8.0 0.2 10.8 10th
11th 0.4 6.8 3.1 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 2.6 5.7 0.4 8.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.3 3.6 1.1 6.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.4 6.6 16.6 25.7 27.7 17.0 4.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.9% 10.5% 10.5% 13.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.4
10-8 17.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 16.1
9-9 27.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 27.1
8-10 25.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 25.4
7-11 16.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.5
6-12 6.6% 6.6
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.6 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.5 53.3 40.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%