IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.0	#129
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.3	#303
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.1	#110

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#169

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.0%	24.9%	15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.7	12.3	12.9

.500 or above	82.6%	93.3%	78.1%
.500 or above in Conference	85.6%	91.9%	82.9%
Conference Champion	23.3%	31.4%	19.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	18.0%	24.8%	15.2%
Second Round	2.3%	3.8%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	104	@ Akron	L	72-78	29%
Nov 09, 2025	362	Coppin St.	W	78-56	98%
Nov 12, 2025	204	@ Longwood	W	72-71	55%
Nov 15, 2025	300	@ LIU Brooklyn	W	68-61	72%
Nov 18, 2025	131	Towson	W	67-64	61%
Nov 24, 2025	210	@ Florida International	W	71-69	57%
Nov 25, 2025	182	Nebraska Omaha	W	73-70	62%
Nov 29, 2025	99	@ George Mason	L	62-68	29%
Dec 03, 2025	329	NC Central	W	77-62	90%
Dec 06, 2025	251	Norfolk St.	W	73-63	80%
Dec 17, 2025	200	@ Old Dominion	W	69-68	54%
Dec 20, 2025	249	@ Georgia Southern	W	74-70	62%
Dec 28, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	62-80	6%
Jan 04, 2026	140	@ Arkansas St.	L	71-73	42%
Jan 07, 2026	187	Marshall	W	74-67	72%
Jan 10, 2026	200	Old Dominion	W	72-65	73%
Jan 15, 2026	201	@ Appalachian St.	W	63-62	54%
Jan 17, 2026	187	@ Marshall	W	71-70	53%
Jan 22, 2026	163	South Alabama	W	67-61	68%
Jan 24, 2026	193	Texas St.	W	71-64	72%
Jan 29, 2026	130	@ Troy	L	66-69	40%
Jan 31, 2026	281	@ Southern Miss	W	75-69	68%
Feb 04, 2026	234	Louisiana	W	73-64	77%
Feb 12, 2026	284	Georgia St.	W	78-66	84%
Feb 14, 2026	201	Appalachian St.	W	66-59	73%
Feb 18, 2026	275	@ Coastal Carolina	W	69-64	66%
Feb 21, 2026	284	@ Georgia St.	W	75-69	69%
Feb 25, 2026	249	Georgia Southern	W	77-67	78%
Feb 27, 2026	275	Coastal Carolina	W	72-61	82%
Projected Record						18 - 11	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.6	4.4	6.6	5.9	3.5	1.1		23.3	1st
2nd												0.2	2.0	5.3	5.8	3.0	0.7	0.0			17.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	5.0	4.4	1.4	0.2	0.0				12.7	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	4.1	4.1	1.1	0.1	0.0					10.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.9	3.8	1.0	0.1							8.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.7	3.4	1.4	0.1								6.7	6th
7th								0.0	1.0	3.0	1.6	0.1	0.0								5.8	7th
8th							0.0	0.3	2.1	1.9	0.2	0.0									4.6	8th
9th							0.2	1.2	1.8	0.4											3.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.8	1.4	0.6	0.0											2.9	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.0												2.1	11th
12th				0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1													1.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1														0.9	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.3	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	2.5	3.7	5.6	7.5	9.2	11.1	12.4	12.5	11.8	9.7	6.6	3.6	1.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.1		1.1
17-1	98.6%	3.5		3.4	0.2
16-2	89.5%	5.9		4.7	1.1	0.1
15-3	67.5%	6.6		4.0	2.2	0.4	0.0
14-4	37.7%	4.4		1.6	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.4%	1.6		0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.2			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	23.3%	23.3		15.1	6.2	1.6	0.4	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.1%		67.3%	65.5%	1.8%	10.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.4		5.2%
17-1	3.6%		52.7%	52.3%	0.5%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.7		1.0%
16-2	6.6%		46.7%	46.6%	0.1%	12.1											0.0	0.7	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0		3.5		0.2%
15-3	9.7%		36.5%	36.5%		12.5												0.3	1.6	1.3	0.4	0.0		6.2
14-4	11.8%		28.9%	28.9%		13.0												0.1	1.0	1.5	0.8	0.1	0.0	8.4
13-5	12.5%		19.6%	19.6%		13.3												0.0	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	10.1
12-6	12.4%		12.3%	12.3%		13.8												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0	10.9
11-7	11.1%		7.1%	7.1%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	10.3
10-8	9.2%		4.3%	4.3%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.8
9-9	7.5%		1.9%	1.9%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	7.3
8-10	5.6%		0.7%	0.7%		17.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6
7-11	3.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
6-12	2.5%																							2.5
5-13	1.3%																							1.3
4-14	0.8%																							0.8
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		18.0%	18.0%	0.0%	12.7				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	2.4	5.6	5.3	3.2	1.1	0.2	82.0		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.7			14.4		42.8	28.4				14.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	66.9%	9.5									33.1	33.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	5.1					97.6						2.4