Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #178
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #169
Pace 73.5 #68
Improvement +1.3 #117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 B- D+ C C C-
Defense #224 C D+ C- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.20 #133 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #123 1.07 #2 +4.7 #18
Three Pointers 40% #199 0.94 #273 -2.0 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.3 #114
Freethrows 18.7 #115 69% #281 12.9 #160
Second Chance 29.9% #211 0.94 #299 0.28 #263
Turnovers 16.5% #174
Total Offense +0.0 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.10 #106 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.83 #288 -0.6 #217
Three Pointers 38% #250 1.06 #243 +0.5 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #200 -0.6 #199
Freethrows 15.7 #102 74% #257 11.6 #243
Second Chance 33.4% #287 1.08 #241 0.36 #286
Turnovers 15.9% #218
Total Defense -1.5 #224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #246 0.6% #223
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #93 0.6% #197
Possession Length 16.7 #123 17.0 #140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.16 #122
Improvement +0.7 #136 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 56.4% 67.4% 37.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 90.4% 68.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.1% 3.6% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 133 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 50% +2  0 - 1 -6 +5 B+ F B -10 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 91 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 33% +2  1 - 1 +7 +2 A F A+ +6 A- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 42 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 7% -15  1 - 2 -15 -6 F A- F -9 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 19 @Louisville L 81 - 106 4% -14  1 - 3 -6 +9 A+ F F -13 C F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 272 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 78% -4  1 - 4 -12 -2 D+ F A+ -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 86 George Mason L 69 - 92 22% -20  1 - 5 -16 +0 C A- D -18 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 130 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 38% -4  1 - 6 -10 -13 F F F +3 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 341 Maine W 79 - 57 88% +12  2 - 6 +8 +9 C+ C C+ +0 B+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 171 Marshall W 88 - 81 59% +6  3 - 6 +3 +10 A- C- A -7 B- D D
 Sat, Dec 13 127 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 37% +3  4 - 6 +7 +6 A+ A+ B- +0 A- F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 131 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 50% -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -11 -13 F C D- +1 B+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 325 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 70% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +9 -4 F F C +11 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 211 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 44% -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 +1 +1 A- F F +0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 168 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 59% +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +7 A+ D C -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 199 Buffalo W 91 - 80 65% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +6 +8 A+ A+ F -3 B+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 13 164 @Toledo L 85 - 101 36% -4  8 - 8 4 - 2 -14 +11 C B- B+ -24 F F D
 Fri, Jan 16 303 @Ball St. W 75 - 71 64%
 Tue, Jan 20 331 Northern Illinois W 83 - 71 87%
 Sat, Jan 24 67 Akron L 82 - 89 26%
 Tue, Jan 27 146 @Kent St. L 82 - 87 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 199 @Buffalo L 78 - 80 42%
 Tue, Feb 3 250 Western Michigan W 83 - 76 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 244 @Old Dominion W 79 - 78 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 84 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 15%
 Tue, Feb 17 303 Ball St. W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 @Northern Illinois W 80 - 74 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 164 Toledo W 82 - 80 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 168 @Massachusetts L 79 - 83 37%
 Fri, Mar 6 84 Miami (OH) L 79 - 84 31%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1 +0 B- D+ C -1 C D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 6.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.3 4.1 9.6 5.1 0.5 0.0 19.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 10.1 5.7 0.6 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 7.6 6.1 0.7 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.5 4.8 5.5 1.0 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 11.3 17.5 21.6 19.6 13.8 7.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 73.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.5% 14.4% 14.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 2.5% 8.4% 8.4% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.2
13-5 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.5
12-6 13.8% 5.3% 5.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 13.0
11-7 19.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 19.0
10-8 21.6% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 21.0
9-9 17.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.2
8-10 11.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.2
7-11 4.6% 4.6
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 14.1 96.9 0.0%