St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #147
Pace 66.0 #261
Improvement -5.7 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 C+ B- C+ D+ C-
Defense #228 C- C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.15 #185 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #80 0.82 #97 +2.7 #57
Three Pointers 34% #321 1.10 #66 -2.3 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #133 +1.4 #135
Freethrows 0.25 #327 77% #46 0.19 #291
Second Chance 35.1% #59 1.03 #199 0.36 #91
Turnovers 15.7% #135
Total Offense +2.3 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.18 #213 -1.0 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.77 #195 -0.6 #227
Three Pointers 39% #241 1.10 #294 -0.6 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #254 -2.2 #253
Freethrows 0.28 #119 80% #364 0.22 #206
Second Chance 29.4% #132 1.15 #307 0.34 #236
Turnovers 16.6% #171
Total Defense -1.7 #228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #258 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #111 4.4% #264
Possession Length 17.5 #188 17.9 #266
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #70 0.19 #234
Improvement -0.5 #209 -5.2 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 58.7% 78.4% 50.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 9.0% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.0% 6.3% 20.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 35 - 67 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 Bradley W 69 - 63 45% +4  1 - 0 +8 +1 D C C +8 D A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 342 Canisius W 89 - 70 92% +7  2 - 0 +4 +20 C A+ B- -14 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 172 Siena W 75 - 66 67% -1  3 - 0 +5 +7 C A+ D- -1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 221 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 75% -5  4 - 0 -3 +8 A- C F -11 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 20 208 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 73% +4  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F +9 A+ B B+
 Tue, Nov 25 29 North Carolina L 70 - 85 10% -11  5 - 1 -0 +1 C+ C B -1 C C- A
 Thu, Nov 27 254 East Carolina W 67 - 58 71% +2  6 - 1 +4 -6 D D+ D- +10 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 101 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 24% +2  7 - 1 +13 +7 A+ F+ C- +7 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 203 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 51% +7  8 - 1 +8 +5 C+ B+ F +3 D D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 210 Colgate W 85 - 77 74% -3  9 - 1 +2 +9 C+ B- D -6 B+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 209 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 63% -3  9 - 2 -8 +1 D A D- -8 F+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 274 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 83% +1  10 - 2 +2 +16 A- B B -14 C F D
 Wed, Dec 31 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 12% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +17 B+ B+ B -11 D+ C F+
 Wed, Jan 7 123 Richmond L 80 - 89 54% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -9 +7 D+ A+ A+ -16 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 196 Fordham L 77 - 81 71% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -9 +7 B+ A+ D- -17 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 149 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 38% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 -0 -1 F C- C -0 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 199 @La Salle L 74 - 78 51% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +9 A+ F C- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 272 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 82% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +5 +7 D+ D+ A+ -2 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 25 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 13% -25  11 - 8 1 - 6 -22 -5 C- D- C -17 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 115 @Duquesne L 75 - 81 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 88 George Mason L 71 - 74 39%
 Tue, Feb 3 80 @Dayton L 67 - 77 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 196 @Fordham L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 115 Duquesne W 78 - 77 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 149 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 123 @Richmond L 73 - 78 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 116 Rhode Island W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 88 @George Mason L 68 - 77 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 67 @George Washington L 74 - 85 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 134 Davidson W 72 - 70 57%
Totals 15 - 15 5 - 13 +1 +2 C+ B- C+ -2 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.6 1.9 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 5.1 5.5 0.4 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 4.8 9.2 2.0 0.0 16.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 7.1 11.9 4.6 0.2 25.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 7.6 9.8 4.0 0.2 23.4 13th
14th 0.7 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.7 14th
Total 0.8 4.2 11.5 18.0 21.2 19.9 13.5 7.1 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 2.7
8-10 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 7.1
7-11 13.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.9
5-13 21.2% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2
4-14 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 18.0
3-15 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.5
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%