Preseason Rankings
Tulane
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.9
.500 or above 69.0% 75.5% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 61.4% 44.0%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.9% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.1% 9.9%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round7.6% 8.7% 4.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 12
Quad 48 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 166   Samford W 80-73 75%    
  Nov 08, 2025 193   Texas St. W 74-66 77%    
  Nov 11, 2025 234   @ Louisiana W 72-68 65%    
  Nov 14, 2025 312   New Orleans W 82-67 91%    
  Nov 21, 2025 54   Utah St. L 70-77 27%    
  Nov 28, 2025 233   Nicholls St. W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 02, 2025 283   Grambling St. W 72-59 87%    
  Dec 06, 2025 104   Akron W 78-76 55%    
  Dec 14, 2025 117   UC San Diego W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 17, 2025 143   Louisiana Tech W 70-65 68%    
  Dec 20, 2025 213   Portland St. W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 31, 2025 158   @ East Carolina W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 04, 2026 139   Florida Atlantic W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 167   @ Texas San Antonio W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 14, 2026 102   UAB W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 18, 2026 89   North Texas W 62-61 52%    
  Jan 21, 2026 139   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 25, 2026 185   @ Charlotte W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 28, 2026 106   South Florida W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 01, 2026 53   @ Memphis L 70-80 20%    
  Feb 08, 2026 122   Wichita St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 11, 2026 132   Temple W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 15, 2026 102   @ UAB L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 18, 2026 89   @ North Texas L 59-65 32%    
  Feb 22, 2026 165   Rice W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 25, 2026 149   Tulsa W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 01, 2026 106   @ South Florida L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 05, 2026 132   @ Temple L 73-75 45%    
  Mar 08, 2026 53   Memphis L 73-77 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.6 1.9 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.4 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.8 0.2 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.0 8.0 9.4 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.3 6.5 4.7 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.1% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 76.5% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
14-4 45.4% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 85.7% 54.2% 31.5% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8%
17-1 0.5% 70.0% 42.3% 27.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 47.9%
16-2 1.5% 48.4% 35.2% 13.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 20.4%
15-3 2.5% 39.3% 32.4% 6.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 10.2%
14-4 4.7% 24.3% 22.7% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.6 2.0%
13-5 6.5% 19.5% 18.9% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.7%
12-6 8.3% 12.5% 12.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.1%
11-7 10.4% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.5 0.0%
10-8 11.1% 4.9% 4.9% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
9-9 11.3% 2.8% 2.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.0
8-10 10.8% 2.0% 2.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-11 9.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
6-12 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.3
3-15 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.8% 7.1% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.2 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 49.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 100.0