Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #171
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #146
Pace 67.0 #231
Improvement +2.8 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 C- D B A- C
Defense #205 C D+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.20 #122 -1.2 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.74 #208 -0.6 #211
Three Pointers 45% #99 0.95 #272 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #215 -1.4 #217
Freethrows 0.37 #28 77% #27 0.28 #14
Second Chance 21.0% #356 1.15 #40 0.24 #329
Turnovers 14.3% #40
Total Offense +0.1 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.13 #148 +1.7 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.74 #154 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 43% #106 1.08 #280 -2.6 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 0.32 #239 70% #81 0.23 #218
Second Chance 34.4% #319 1.03 #191 0.35 #282
Turnovers 17.7% #134
Total Defense -0.9 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #212 -0.2% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #212 1.7% #216
Possession Length 16.9 #131 18.3 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #259 0.16 #148
Improvement -1.2 #253 +4.0 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 56.1% 73.2% 44.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 38.4% 13.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 77 - 13
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 227 Samford W 85 - 72 72% +6  1 - 0 +6 +13 A+ F C+ -6 C- F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 259 Texas St. W 79 - 71 77% -6  2 - 0 -1 +8 C+ F B- -8 C- F D
 Tue, Nov 11 302 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 66% +3  3 - 0 -1 -1 F+ C B- +0 B- F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 210 New Orleans L 63 - 85 69% -11  3 - 1 -28 -11 F F A+ -18 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 38 Utah St. L 75 - 96 10% -6  3 - 2 -7 +10 A D A- -17 F C+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 127 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 39% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B A+ A+ -10 C D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 249 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 75% +7  5 - 2 +2 +7 B F A -5 F B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 271 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 79% +0  6 - 2 -7 -1 F D A+ -6 C F B
 Sat, Dec 6 61 Akron L 71 - 88 25% -8  6 - 3 -11 -2 D- F+ A+ -8 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 13 138 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 42% -16  6 - 4 -25 -11 D- F D -11 D- C- C
 Wed, Dec 17 218 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 70% +6  7 - 4 +2 -0 F C A+ +4 A B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 139 Portland St. W 63 - 61 53% +3  8 - 4 +0 -2 F+ D+ D- +2 A D- C
 Wed, Dec 31 248 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 54% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +7 +13 B- A- C- -5 C- B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 108 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 44% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +4 -3 D C+ B- +7 A D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 342 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 77% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +11 B- C B- +14 B+ B- A
 Wed, Jan 14 120 UAB L 69 - 82 47% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 D- B B -9 C F B
 Sun, Jan 18 148 North Texas L 63 - 71 55% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -10 -3 F+ D- A+ -7 D+ B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 108 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 24% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +2 +3 D+ C+ C -1 D- A- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 156 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 36% -5  11 - 8 3 - 4 -0 -2 C- F B- +2 D D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 72 South Florida L 83 - 97 29% -11  11 - 9 3 - 5 -9 +6 A+ F A -14 C+ F D
 Sun, Feb 1 96 @Memphis W 78 - 76 19% +5  12 - 9 4 - 5 +10 +14 A+ D B -4 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Feb 8 99 Wichita St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 144 Temple W 73 - 72 54%
 Sun, Feb 15 120 @UAB L 72 - 79 27%
 Wed, Feb 18 148 @North Texas L 63 - 68 34%
 Sun, Feb 22 232 Rice W 76 - 70 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 69 Tulsa L 76 - 82 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 72 @South Florida L 73 - 85 14%
 Thu, Mar 5 144 @Temple L 70 - 75 33%
 Sun, Mar 8 96 Memphis L 71 - 74 38%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 +0 C- D B -1 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 0.2 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 2.3 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.5 0.9 7.1 7th
8th 0.5 5.9 5.1 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.6 8.0 12.0 1.4 22.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 8.9 14.5 3.8 0.1 28.3 10th
11th 0.6 5.1 7.9 2.6 0.0 16.3 11th
12th 1.2 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.8 8.7 18.3 25.6 22.5 14.5 6.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 17.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 12.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.9% 6.8% 6.8% 12.5 0.1 0.1 1.8
10-8 6.4% 2.5% 2.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3
9-9 14.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.3
8-10 22.5% 0.9% 0.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.3
7-11 25.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 25.4
6-12 18.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.2
5-13 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%