Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#199
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#153
Pace67.0#247
Improvement+0.2#162

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#144
First Shot+2.3#115
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#284
Layup/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#253
Freethrows+4.2#12
Improvement-2.8#351

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#279
First Shot-1.6#233
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#302
Layups/Dunks+5.0#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#349
Freethrows+0.6#131
Improvement+3.0#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 32.5% 42.0% 20.3%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 23.1% 15.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 16.5% 22.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 49 - 315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 232 Samford W 85-72 67%     1 - 0 +5.9 +13.7 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 8 260 Texas St. W 79-71 72%     2 - 0 -0.5 +7.3 -7.4
  Tue, Nov 11 327 @Louisiana W 66-62 66%     3 - 0 -2.8 -0.9 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 244 New Orleans L 63-85 70%     3 - 1 -29.8 -11.1 -20.2
  Fri, Nov 21 44 Utah St. L 75-96 10%     3 - 2 -9.7 +8.3 -18.4
  Sun, Nov 23 150 Boston College W 93-90 OT 37%     4 - 2 +3.8 +13.2 -9.8
  Fri, Nov 28 236 Nicholls St. W 82-72 68%     5 - 2 +2.8 +8.3 -5.4
  Tue, Dec 2 282 Grambling St. W 65-63 75%     6 - 2 -7.6 -1.6 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 66 Akron L 71-88 22%     6 - 3 -11.5 -5.2 -6.2
  Sat, Dec 13 85 UC San Diego L 67-93 20%     6 - 4 -19.4 -9.9 -6.8
  Wed, Dec 17 189 Louisiana Tech W 61-53 59%     7 - 4 +3.2 +1.2 +3.5
  Sat, Dec 20 176 Portland St. W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Dec 31 255 @East Carolina L 73-74 49%    
  Sun, Jan 4 118 Florida Atlantic L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 295 @Texas San Antonio W 75-73 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 112 UAB L 76-79 39%    
  Sun, Jan 18 146 North Texas L 66-67 48%    
  Wed, Jan 21 118 @Florida Atlantic L 73-82 22%    
  Sun, Jan 25 198 @Charlotte L 69-72 38%    
  Wed, Jan 28 83 South Florida L 76-82 29%    
  Sun, Feb 1 76 @Memphis L 68-81 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 100 Wichita St. L 70-74 35%    
  Wed, Feb 11 156 Temple W 78-77 51%    
  Sun, Feb 15 112 @UAB L 73-82 21%    
  Wed, Feb 18 146 @North Texas L 64-70 28%    
  Sun, Feb 22 206 Rice W 73-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 25 81 Tulsa L 73-80 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 83 @South Florida L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Mar 5 156 @Temple L 74-80 30%    
  Sun, Mar 8 76 Memphis L 71-78 27%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.0 0.4 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.0 2.1 0.1 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 3.5 0.4 14.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.1 4.1 0.7 0.0 15.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.8 3.9 0.6 0.0 15.0 12th
13th 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.1 13th
Total 0.4 1.5 4.0 8.1 11.5 14.7 14.8 13.9 11.5 8.3 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 85.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 45.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 14.8% 14.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 21.4% 21.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 5.5% 5.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.7% 6.8% 6.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
10-8 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
9-9 8.3% 1.3% 1.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
8-10 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
7-11 13.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-15 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.1
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%