UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.7 #358
Expected Predictive Rating -18.9 #360
Pace 71.5 #110
Improvement -1.2 #247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #359 D- D D D D
Defense #312 D D C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.05 #302 -4.1 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #50 0.74 #194 +2.6 #62
Three Pointers 38% #252 0.87 #338 -4.5 #324
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #337 -6.1 #337
Freethrows 0.27 #289 68% #305 0.19 #317
Second Chance 28.5% #245 0.86 #347 0.25 #320
Turnovers 19.4% #312
Total Offense -9.9 #359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #80 1.28 #328 -5.0 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.79 #244 +0.5 #150
Three Pointers 39% #241 1.07 #251 -0.1 #185
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.5 #314
Freethrows 0.27 #60 69% #47 0.18 #49
Second Chance 37.1% #356 1.00 #130 0.37 #310
Turnovers 17.0% #174
Total Defense -4.8 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 1.1% #275
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.8% #331 7.6% #317
Possession Length 17.8 #235 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #128 0.23 #332
Improvement -1.4 #265 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 63.0% 47.9% 70.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 42 - 133 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 137 @Southern Illinois L 78 - 101 5% -11  0 - 1 -19 +5 D B+ B+ -21 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 231 Iona L 91 - 105 23% -9  0 - 2 -21 -1 C C F -18 F C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 31 @Texas L 55 - 71 1% -11  0 - 3 +2 -7 F C- A+ +7 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 51 @TCU L 45 - 81 1% -22  0 - 4 -23 -20 F D F -2 B+ F B
 Mon, Nov 24 239 @Lindenwood L 67 - 80 11% -6  0 - 5 -14 -9 D F F -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 229 @Weber St. L 61 - 82 11% -10  0 - 6 -22 -13 D F D -9 F B A-
 Wed, Dec 3 235 Idaho St. L 59 - 68 24% -0  0 - 7 -16 -11 D F+ F -7 B- F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 244 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 90 12% -15  0 - 8 -26 -15 F C F -9 B- F C
 Wed, Dec 10 229 Weber St. L 60 - 64 23% -3  0 - 9 -11 -22 F D F +11 A C- A+
 Tue, Dec 16 55 @Oklahoma L 67 - 89 1% -19  0 - 10 -9 -2 C- C F -7 B- D- D
 Thu, Dec 18 56 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 91 1% -6  0 - 11 +1 +4 C+ D B -2 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 289 @Denver L 74 - 87 17% -12  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 -7 F B D+ -11 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 240 @Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 66 11% +2  1 - 12 1 - 1 +5 +2 D+ D- A +4 C- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 140 North Dakota St. L 73 - 97 12% -18  1 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -0 B+ F+ F -26 F B- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 283 North Dakota L 79 - 81 32% +2  1 - 14 1 - 3 -12 +5 A+ F F -17 D D F
 Thu, Jan 15 287 @South Dakota L 83 - 99 16% -17  1 - 15 1 - 4 -20 -1 C- F A+ -18 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 177 @South Dakota St. L 62 - 90 7% -6  1 - 16 1 - 5 -26 -6 F+ B- C -22 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 240 Nebraska Omaha L 60 - 77 25% -8  1 - 17 1 - 6 -25 -20 F+ F F -4 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 289 Denver L 61 - 69 34% +0  1 - 18 1 - 7 -18 -20 F F B- +1 A+ D+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 134 @St. Thomas L 64 - 99 5% -23  1 - 19 1 - 8 -30 -11 F C- C -18 F F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 287 South Dakota L 77 - 82 34%
 Thu, Feb 12 335 @Oral Roberts L 69 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 134 St. Thomas L 68 - 81 11%
 Thu, Feb 19 283 @North Dakota L 70 - 81 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 140 @North Dakota St. L 62 - 81 4%
 Thu, Feb 26 177 South Dakota St. L 70 - 80 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 335 Oral Roberts L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 3 - 24 3 - 13 -15 -10 D- D D -5 D D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.9 3.2 2.0 0.3 6.3 7th
8th 12.8 23.9 10.8 1.7 0.1 49.2 8th
9th 17.4 21.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 43.6 9th
Total 17.4 33.8 29.8 14.3 4.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 0.1% 0.1
6-10 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-11 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-12 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
3-13 29.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.7
2-14 33.8% 33.8
1-15 17.4% 17.4
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 12.1%