Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #237
Pace 70.7 #132
Improvement -1.5 #253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 D+ C+ B D- D+
Defense #263 C- C- C- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.07 #289 -3.6 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #102 0.80 #107 +1.9 #77
Three Pointers 41% #188 0.93 #294 -2.0 #253
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #290 -3.6 #288
Freethrows 0.26 #311 66% #340 0.17 #340
Second Chance 32.5% #129 1.05 #140 0.34 #112
Turnovers 14.7% #65
Total Offense -2.0 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #26 1.20 #237 -4.6 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.78 #228 +0.6 #144
Three Pointers 37% #295 1.01 #177 +2.3 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -1.8 #236
Freethrows 0.32 #240 73% #231 0.23 #248
Second Chance 30.4% #168 1.12 #302 0.34 #250
Turnovers 15.9% #225
Total Defense -2.9 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #278 1.5% #305
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #283 1.9% #218
Possession Length 16.4 #96 17.8 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.22 #328
Improvement -3.1 #332 +1.6 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.0% 5.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 48.5% 18.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
First Round2.8% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 411 - 513 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 251 Hampton W 90 - 86 63% +6  1 - 0 -4 +4 D B A+ -9 D- C B+
 Sat, Nov 8 188 @Wofford L 76 - 86 28% -12  1 - 1 -9 -3 D- F+ A+ -5 C+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 92 - 72 71% +7  2 - 1 +9 +14 B- A+ B+ -5 C- F+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 30 @Indiana L 70 - 101 3% -13  2 - 2 -13 +4 A- C+ F -16 F F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 18 @Texas Tech L 63 - 80 2% -4  2 - 3 +4 +3 C- A+ D- -1 A F C
 Sat, Nov 22 99 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 11% -1  2 - 4 -9 -8 F+ B- C- -2 C A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 61 @Akron L 81 - 105 7% -13  2 - 5 -12 +3 F+ B+ B -13 F B B+
 Sat, Dec 6 218 Robert Morris W 74 - 72 55% -1  3 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -4 D+ F A +0 B A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 199 Indiana St. L 68 - 70 52% -1  3 - 6 -7 -2 F A A+ -6 F+ D- B+
 Fri, Dec 19 175 South Dakota St. W 88 - 87 36% +1  4 - 6 -0 +16 B+ B+ B- -16 D- F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 307 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 71 53% -0  5 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +8 D+ C+ A+ -3 B+ C F
 Mon, Dec 29 215 Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 55 55% +19  6 - 6 3 - 0 +16 +4 D- A+ F+ +12 A- A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 37 @Wisconsin L 60 - 80 3% -14  6 - 7 -3 -10 F C- F +8 B A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 147 @Wright St. L 70 - 76 20% -7  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +3 D+ C A+ -6 A- D F+
 Mon, Jan 5 254 @Green Bay L 76 - 79 40% -8  6 - 9 3 - 2 -5 +6 A+ F+ D- -12 F B- D-
 Fri, Jan 9 190 Northern Kentucky L 67 - 85 51% -13  6 - 10 3 - 3 -23 -3 F C A+ -22 C+ F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 341 IU Indianapolis W 95 - 83 82% -0  7 - 10 4 - 3 -3 +14 A- A+ B -17 D C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 131 Oakland L 60 - 73 36% -9  7 - 11 4 - 4 -14 -21 F C D+ +8 A+ F+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 215 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 82 - 100 32% -9  7 - 12 4 - 5 -18 +6 B- F B -23 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 218 @Robert Morris L 76 - 88 33% -7  7 - 13 4 - 6 -12 +2 B- F B- -14 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 226 @Youngstown St. W 65 - 64 34% -1  8 - 13 5 - 6 +0 -5 D- C B +6 B A A-
 Fri, Jan 30 147 Wright St. L 69 - 76 40% -5  8 - 14 5 - 7 -9 -9 D- D+ B+ -0 B- D- B
 Sun, Feb 1 307 Cleveland St. W 85 - 78 74%
 Wed, Feb 4 278 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 190 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 82 29%
 Tue, Feb 10 341 @IU Indianapolis W 86 - 82 63%
 Sun, Feb 15 254 Green Bay W 76 - 73 62%
 Fri, Feb 20 278 @Detroit Mercy L 78 - 79 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 131 @Oakland L 78 - 88 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 226 Youngstown St. W 76 - 74 56%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -5 -2 D+ C+ B -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.4 4.6 3rd
4th 0.2 4.2 7.1 1.7 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 9.9 3.4 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 17.9 6th
7th 0.1 5.0 11.5 1.4 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 10.1 2.9 0.1 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.4 3.9 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.2 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 11th
Total 0.4 2.8 9.6 19.8 26.7 23.3 12.9 4.0 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.6% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 4.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.6
11-9 12.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 12.0
10-10 23.3% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 1.1 22.1
9-11 26.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 26.0
8-12 19.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 19.4
7-13 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-14 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.7 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%